Do nothing: wait "some time" for the restart of the economies to be well underway and without jolts. It is the line that emerges from the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed and which is the basis of the good performance of the markets. Only in a few months will the problem arise of reviewing the exceptional aid that is enabling the recovery: the Fed's commitment to purchase bonds for 130 billion dollars a month will last, according to JP Morgan, until the spring of 2022. But then the various Treasury ministers, Janet Yellen in the lead, will have at their disposal the weapon of the new taxes, necessary to finance the new deal. And only then will the criticisms and oppositions of the markets emerge, today in silence in the face of the dirigisme that is characterizing the start of the Biden era. For now the honeymoon continues: the letter to the shareholders of Jamie Dimon, number one of JP Morgan, predicts that the American boom is destined to last at least until 2023.
CHINA WEAK, INDIA LAUNCHING STIMULI
In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0,8% and Sydney's S&P ASX 200 was up 1%. Still weak the CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzen (-0,3%). Tokyo's Nikkei is down 0,3%, penalized by the leap in infections in recent days.
Mumbai's BSE Sensex up 0,8% on the heels of the announcement of a trillion rupee ($14 billion) bond purchase commitment by the Central Bank of India, pledging to lend a hand to a economy threatened by a new wave of infections.
NASDAQ DOESN'T STOP, TREASURIES DO
The US markets seem able to ensure a new push from the bull. The S&P500 index future is up 0,5% this morning: the same index closed up 0,1% yesterday evening. The race for new records is led by the big names in technology. Nasdaq futures gain 0,7%.
The 1,67-year Treasury Notes are under control, yielding XNUMX%. Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Charles Evans said the recent rise in Treasury yields was a "good thing" because it reflected optimism about the economy and the welcome expectation of slightly higher inflation. "It's a sign that the economy is doing better."
WTI oil is down 1%, after two consecutive days of gains: Brent at $62,78 (-38 cents).
The euro traded at 1,1868 this morning, recovering after falling to 1,914 in overnight trading.
ENTRY OF JULY THE AGREEMENT ON THE GLOBAL MINIMUM TAX
In recent days, the topic of taxes has taken center stage. Starting with the minimum global tax launched by Janet Yellen over the weekend, yesterday at the center of the reflections of the G20 and the OECD. The United States has sent a Treasury document to 135 countries which reiterates the proposal for a tax to be applied to turnover in proportion to the sales in each individual country. The single tax will then be divided: one part will remain with the local administration, another will be paid at the headquarters of the multinational. According to the USA, the global rate will be 21%, to be defined according to local amounts. But the negotiation is already well advanced given that the Italian minister Franco anticipated that the agreement will be signed at the end of July.
It's not Biden's only fiscal front. The White House hints that it could reduce the tax plan presented during the electoral campaign, perhaps lowering the increase in the corporate tax rate to 25%. But the goal of raising $2.500 trillion over the next 15 years remains.
ASTRAZENECA BRAKES EUROPE. FRANCO: PEPP MUST BE EXTENDED
The EMA verdict on the AstraZeneca vaccine took care of curbing the thrust of the European markets, in any case close to the maximum. Through gritted teeth, the European agency admitted a slight link between the vaccine and some "very rare" manifestations of thrombosis. As a consequence, the drug will only be recommended for those over 60, the exact opposite of what has been done so far.
The confusion on the Covid-19 front, the real economic emergency, has partially obscured the positive macro data. The composite PMI of the Eurozone, in the final March reading, stood at 53,2 points, from 48,8 in February. The final index relating to the services sector instead rose to 49,6 points compared to 45,7 in the previous month. According to the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, the EU countries want to avoid the early removal of the support measures taken to deal with the crisis. "There is a general consensus - he says - to strengthen cooperation to address the challenges posed by the pandemic". The governor of the Dutch central bank, Knot, has a different opinion: "In my humble opinion - he argued - if the macro picture evolves according to the ECB scenario, from the third quarter onwards we can begin to reduce the purchases of bonds made with the PEPP ”. In short, there will be something to discuss at the next directorate in Frankfurt.
FLAT BUSINESS PLACE. SUMMER WILL BRING RECOVERY
Piazza Affari closes flat: -0,08% to 24.740. The government expects a slight decline in GDP in the first quarter of the year, and then expects a recovery in the second, which will consolidate in the third and fourth, as anti-Covid restrictions are lifted. The estimate was made by the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco.
STATE RESCUE IN PARIS: EDF FLIES (+8,7%)
Contrasted with the other price lists. Edf (+0,02%) flies to Paris (+8,68%), best stock of the Stoxx 600, in the wake of the news that the government is ready to spend 10 billion euros to acquire the minority shares in the a major restructuring.
LONDON, SAVERS BET ON DELIVEROO
London shines (+0,95%) in line with the fall of the pound against the euro. Redemption of Deliveroo (+2,14%) on the first day of non-limited trading which allows small investors to trade on the stock exchange. In red Frankfurt (-0,11%), Amsterdam (-0,3%) and Madrid (-0,4%).
ORDERS FOR 64 BILLION FOR THE 50-YEAR BTP, SPREAD AT 103
The Italian bond market closed the session with rates rising compared to the start, after the launch of a dual tranche, a new 50-year BTP and the reopening of 7-year bonds, which saw total orders over ten times higher than the issue.
In detail, the new 50-year 5 billion euro saw orders exceeding 64 billion, a sign for some analysts that the market is not afraid of longer maturities. The demand for the 7-year, reopened for 7 billion, has gone beyond 66 billion.
At the close, the 0,71-year rate settled in the 0,68% area, compared to 0,7% at the opening and after closing at 103% in the previous session. The spread on the ten-year Bund is 102 basis points from XNUMX at yesterday's opening and closing.
GREECE, MINUS SIGN ALSO FOR SHORT-TERM TITLES
Portugal placed a new 10-year bond for 4 billion, with final orders for 30 billion. Greece placed €812,5 million in 3-month government bonds at a negative rate, unchanged from the previous auction. Germany placed 3.307 billion Bobl over 5 years. The average rate was 0,66%.
MILAN, NEXI AND TOP MANAGEMENT. The SENATE SAVE THE CASHBACK
Asset management was shaken yesterday morning by the news of the start of negotiations between SocGen and Credit Agricole for the transfer of control of Lyxor to Amundi (Agricole team), which could thus secure a significant share (14%) of the market European ETF.
However, the M&A wind is not blowing in Piazza Affari, where the golden age of asset management continues. Azimut, which collected 943 million euros in the month, gained 1,54% on the stock exchange, while Fineco, which collected 3,3 billion in the three months, grew by 0,94%.
However, the pink jersey in the price list belongs to Nexi (+3,5%). The Senate rejected the motion presented by the Brothers of Italy to suspend the cashback. The document had 114 votes against, 20 in favor while there were 89 abstentions. Instead, the agenda of the majority was approved with 190 yes, 20 no and 13 abstentions. The text commits the government "to deepen the monitoring of the cashback program, also in order to adopt any corrective measures".
TELECOM AND UTILITIES START AGAIN. A2A AWARDED AMONG THE "GOOD"
Telecom Italia (+0,84%) was among the best blue chips for most of the session, up to a gain of 1,2% to 0,46 euros. Equita Sim reduced the target price from 0,55 to 0,51 euro, keeping the Buy judgment unchanged.
The Stoxx utility index gains 0,3%, also due to the leap of Edf: +11% in Paris. Since the beginning of the year, the sub-fund has gained 1%, against the +9% recorded by the global Stoxx. UK-based Centrica and A2a are the two best-in-class stocks.
A2a (+1,29%), which in the last month achieved a performance of +12%, was recognized as the sector leader, in terms of ESG performance, by Gaia Rating, a non-financial rating agency, part of the Ethifinance Group, specialized in evaluating the ESG performance of over a thousand companies listed on European markets.
RECOVER LEONARDO, LUXURY SPOTLIGHTS ON EXOR
Among the industrialists, Leonardo did well (+1,09%), which he now seems to have left behind the stop of the quotation of Drs, communicated to the market on 24 March. Sales instead penalized Cnh (-1,49%) and Prysmian (-1,29%).
Exor is doing well (+0,69%): the market is wondering about a possible joint venture with Armani after the Vogue interview with the designer who, for the first time, is open to the hypothesis of an external partner.
Black day however for luxury: Moncler -2,64%, S. Ferragamo -2,14%, same loss for Tod's. Brunello Cucinelli -1,69%.
ATLANTIA EVALUATES THE SPANISH OPTION
Money on Atlantia (+0,54%) after the words of Florentino Perez. The president of Acs and Real Madrid is looking at the Autostrade per l'Italia dossier: "We too have read of the interest of a new investor and it is up to Atlantia to make the decision," said Infrastructure Minister Enrico Giovannini.
Banks in slight decline: the worst is Banco Bpm (-0,86%).
AIM, CROWFUNDME COLLECTION BOOM
Crowdfundme shone on Aim (+18,60%), which in the first quarter of 2021 marked a new capital raising record: investments on the portal rose to 8.551.077 euros, more than double the 3,8 million of the same period 2020.
