The Fed, as expected, left rates unchanged. But, despite the signs of a slowdown in the economy, he has not ruled out new increases, perhaps as early as March. The central bank statement disappointed Wall Street which, reversing course, closed the day in the red: S&P 500 -1,09%, Dow Jones -1,38%. Worst of all is the Nasdaq (-2,18%), conditioned by the rain of sales on Apple (-6,57%), in free fall after the negative data on iPhone sales.
Confirmation of the slowdown in the global economy came from Boeing's accounts (-8,9%): the group expects to deliver a maximum of 754 aircraft for passenger transport, 17 fewer than in 2015. The only positive note, in the aftermath Stock market, it came from Facebook: +4,7% on the wave of the quarterly.
These signals weren't enough to suggest a softer stance to the Fed, but they fueled the feeling that the central bank is not fully in control of the situation. And so the rally caused by the strong rebound of crude oil vanished: Brent at 32,85 dollars a barrel (+4%) Wti at 32.
OIL CRISIS SHAKING AZERBAIJAN AND ECUADOR
The recovery of oil was triggered by the news of a possible agreement on production quotas between Russia and Opec but, above all, by the increase in US stocks, which rose by 8,4 million barrels to the post-war high. Meanwhile, the price war is reaping new victims. The Monetary Fund and the World Bank are preparing an emergency loan of 4 billion dollars in support of Azerbaijan, brought to its knees by the drop in revenues from gas and oil exports. Similar initiatives are taking shape for Ecuador and Venezuela, which is forced to resort to international aid. But the most serious situation concerns Brazil: the crisis in the prices of raw materials has triggered the most serious crisis in a century now.
HOLD ASIA. CAPITAL FLIGHT FROM CHINA
The nightfall on Wall Street also prevented Asia from reaping the benefits of the mini-oil rally. Little move Tokyo (+0,1%), already focused on the meeting of the central bank on Friday. Hong Kong (+0,2%) and Sydney (+0,6%) advance. The Chinese Stock Exchanges are still down, dropping an abundant 6% in the last four sessions: the threat of capital controls, necessary to curb the currency hemorrhage, weighs heavily.
CORPORATE ACCOUNTS HOLDING DOWN EUROPE. TODAY DEUTSCHE BANK
A weak start is also looming for European lists: opening down in London (-36 bps to 5.954), Paris (-32 bps to 4.348), Frankfurt (-73 to 9.808). At the center of attention will be corporate accounts: in the spotlight Deutsche Bank, Roche, Electrolux, H&M as well as a large group of industrial companies.
Yesterday the disappointing results of some European industry giants betrayed expectations: Basf (-1,8%), Novartis (-3,7%) and the Swedish Ericsson (-6,3%) held back the push from Paris and Frankfurt, however up by 0,5%. Piazza Affari is more cautious: the FtseMib index lost 0,4%. The market response to the 6-month Bot auction was positive. Today the Treasury offers between 5,5 and 7 billion euros in Ccteu and Btp at 5 and 10 years.
BANKS DOWN. CHESTNUT AND MASSIAH FROM PADOAN
Judging by the market trend, it seems that the bad bank project is not liked by the market, which is struggling to assess the real impact of the measures. In yesterday's session there were conspicuous declines in the credit sector: Unicredit -3%, Intesa-0,9%, Ubi -3,2%, Banco Popolare -7,8%, Pop.Emilia -4%. On the other hand, a positive closure for Montepaschi (+1,1%).
In the meantime, the theme of risk is gaining speed. Yesterday the managing directors of Bpm Giuseppe Castagna and of Ubi Banca Victor Massiah were received jointly by the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan.
BANKS: GACS ONLY COVER SENIOR BONDS
Great news also from a regulatory point of view. The council of ministers is convened for today at 17,00, but the launch of the package to speed up credit recovery times with a new intervention on insolvency procedures and the reform of the CCBs, credit banks is postponed to next week's meeting cooperative.
The approval of the Gacs, on the other hand, could take longer even if the Ministry of Economy has announced that the guarantee on the securitization of non-performing loans (Gacs) will be "soon available", which aims to encourage the disposal of these loans from bank balance sheets: just over 200 billion gross non-performing loans, 89 billion net of provisions.
"We will do everything to speed up the process," said Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan on the sidelines of the parliamentary proceedings. But the launch of the Gacs can only take place after the formal notification of the intervention scheme to the European Commission which will have to certify the compatibility of the guarantees with the state aid legislation.
The Italian scheme approved by Brussels and which does not trigger state aid provides for a guarantee limited to the senior tranches of the securitisations, i.e. the safest ones, which last bear any losses deriving from lower-than-expected credit recoveries.
"It will not be possible to proceed with the reimbursement of the riskiest tranches (junior and mezzanine), if the senior tranches guaranteed by the State have not first been fully reimbursed", explained the Ministry of Economy.
FCA RECOVERS IN THE FINAL. FREE CHRYSLER CASH BY MARCH
Fiat Chrysler finished a nervous session modestly lower, marked by the mixed reception of the results. The title, after the upward flare up on dissemination of 2015 data better than expected, it lost ground on the cautious prospects for 2016. With the presentation of the plan, they recovered from the lows to deal in line with the market. In the end, FCA closed down 0,86% at 6,95 euros, with trading at 44,3 million, from a thirty-day average of 18,1 million. The European Stoxx for the sector scored +0,6%.
2015 turned out to be better than expected and once again saw the USA as a protagonist. In fact, the year closed with net revenues of 113,2 billion, adjusted Ebit of 5,3 billion, adjusted net profit of 2 billion and net industrial debt of 5 billion. In 2016 the group aims for net revenues of over 110 billion from 111 billion of the 2015 pro forma results, which exclude Ferrari; Adjusted Ebit to over 5 billion from 4,8 billion in 2015 pro forma; Adjusted net profit over $1,9 billion from $1,7 billion, net industrial debt below $5 billion from $5 billion in 2015.
According to the plan, 2018 should close with revenues of 136 billion (from 129 billion in the previous plan, excluding Ferrari), adjusted Ebit of 8,7-9,8 billion (8,3-9,4), net profit to 4,7-5,5 billion (4,5-5,3) and a positive balance in terms of industrial net financial position of 4-5 billion (1,9-2,4). The fact that restrictions on Chrysler's liquidity will be removed in the first three months of the year will contribute to the improvement in finance. For the next few years, FCA is therefore focusing on the possibility of reaching the margins of its competitors, General Motors and Ford in the United States and saving financial costs thanks to the availability of Chrysler's liquidity, which is currently prohibited from distributing cash due to agreements with lenders.
Ferrari lost 1,5% to 37,3 euros after the publication of data for the fourth quarter of 2015 by Fiat Chrysler. From the note, it is possible to recover, by subtraction, some indication of Ferrari's performance in the last three months of last year. Adjusted operating profit should be around 109 million euros, 10 million more than consensus expectations. The net result should be equal to 55 million. The Maranello house will present the complete data for 2015 on 2 February.
STM COMES OUT OF THE TOP BOXES AND BOOMS
In terms of quarterly reports, the good rise of StM (+4,4%) should also be recorded, which communicated results for the fourth quarter of 2015 in line with market forecasts and announced the closure of the production line of set-top box, resulting in the layoff of 1.400 people. Kepler Cheuvreux has raised the recommendation on the stock from veteran to hold, with the target price rising from 6,5 to 7 dollars.
GENERALI ABSORBS THE GREEK EFFECT. SUMMIT AMONG MEMBERS
Generali (-1,3%) suffered less than expected from the news that the CEO Mario Greco will leave the group to go and lead the competitor Zurich Insurance. The outgoing CEO reassured analysts on the 2015 accounts and on the targets of the 2018 business plan announced last year, even after the decision not to renew the mandate with the Trieste-based company expiring on 28 April next.
According to a note released after a conference call lasting about 40 minutes, "the financial results at the end of 2015 will be good and in line with the financial targets for 2018". According to reports from some analysts who participated in the call, Greco has in fact confirmed the objectives of the plan and those on profits and dividends also for 2015 which "are not at risk and were not the cause of the decision not to renew".
The Generali note also points out that Greco declared that the unavailability of a new mandate "did not depend on any specific contrast or conflict with the shareholders who, on the contrary, have provided full support to the strategy and its execution in these three years ”.
In the call, the outgoing CEO spoke of disagreements with some shareholders over his role in the new course of Generali which began once the turnaround phase with the 2014 accounts was concluded. A summit was held yesterday evening between the chairman of Generali Gabriele Galateri, Alberto Nagel and Lorenzo Pellicioli.
THUD OF FINMECCANICA AND YOOX
Among the oil companies, Tenaris did well (+1,6%), while Eni did not move (+0,4%). Saipem fell 11%. Positive Enel (+1,2%) and Telecom Italia (+1,3%). Buzzi (-0,9%) and Prysmian (-0,6%) are down. Finmeccanica thud (-3,8%). In the luxury segment, there was a noticeable setback by Yoox (-4,6%).
