CHINA WEIGHTS ON LUXURY STOCKS. SPREAD AT 190. ONLY BPM AND MPS ESCAPE THE UKRAINE CRISIS
The week of the European stock exchanges is about to end with a downward trend, with contained but widespread declines on all lists in anticipation of the weekend of the referendum in Crimea. In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 0,82% to 20422. London fell by 0,23%, Paris -0,73%, Frankfurt -0,4%. Madrid is worse -1,08%.
The Moscow Stock Exchange is experiencing a 5% decline. During the week, the drop is around 12%. UBS has revised its forecast for Russian GDP this year to 1,5% from 2,5% and 2% from 2,8% in 2015. In Europe, the Stoxx sector indices with the biggest declines are Construction -1,6, 1,4%, Automotive -1%, Tech -XNUMX%.
The euro, despite Draghi's words against the risk of revaluation, is further strengthening against the dollar to 1,388, from 1,386 at yesterday's close. The Italy-Germany differential, which yesterday reached its highest since the beginning of last week at 187 basis points, rose this morning to 190 basis points with a rate of 3,43%. The only important macro figure of the morning, which has just been announced, is inflation in Germany, down in February to 1,2% on an annual basis from 1,3% in January.
Compared to a few months ago, the world is going upside down: luxury slows down, which is being weighed down by the slowdown in the Chinese economy, so severe that some analysts are questioning whether the GDP of the People's Republic in 2014 could actually rise by 7,5 % as planned by the Beijing government. However, the rally of some Popolari continues, driven by the upward revision of the targets.
In Milan, the most consistent drops are in fact among luxury stocks, affected by sales due to fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy: Ferragamo -3,76%Yoox -3,09%, more firm Tod’s -0,82%.
In Piazza Affari, however, some banks shine on the upside: Banking Popular Milano climbs 1,7%%: Bank of America raises recommendation to Neutral from Underperform. After having accepted its requests on governance, the Athena fund's commitment to the capital increase is looming. Athena, headed by Raffaele Mincione, controls 7% of the institute in Piazza Meda.
MontePaschi advances by 2,2%: new rumors about US groups interested in a landing in Siena. The most accredited name is that of the American fund JC Flowersm interested in buying a 20% stake in a long-term perspective. Credit Suisse has raised the recommendation to Neutral from Underperform.
Understanding marks a decline of 0,72%, Unicredit drops by 1,94%. Among the insurance UnipolSai drops by 3,1%, Generali -0,93%. Most of the blue chips are in red. Fiat -0,32%. Sergio Marchionne, declared yesterday in Geneva that the first quarter of this year will be better than the first quarter of last year. In 2016, the FCA group will exceed the ceiling of 5 million cars.
Mediobanca Securities (outperform rating and 9 euro target price confirmed on Fiat) estimate a trading profit of 827 million this quarter compared to 618 million last year and this thanks to Maserati (from -4 million to 55 million), sales in USA and lower losses in Europe which will compensate for the slowdown in Brazil (trading profit in Latin America down from 180 to 60 million euros).
game up, Rest wiped out the gains: Kepler Cheuvreux raised the target price to 8,5 euros from 7,5 euros. Buy confirmed. Enel falls by 0,76%, Eni + 0,06%. Telecom Italy -1,12%. The main industrial stocks are down. Finmeccanica -1,19% StM -1,13% Pirelli -1,09%.
The consortium made up of the Spanish Sacyr, the Italian Salini Impregilo unchanged and the Belgian Jan de Nul, signed last night with the Panama Canal Authority the agreement that allows the continuation and completion of the works of the new Panama Canal. The signature of Zurich, also part of the agreement, is expected for today.
