CHINA GIVES THE CHARGE. WAITING FOR DEPARTURE BULL. MILAN, THE BEST BAG, AWAITS MOODY'S
The week on the Asian price lists starts well. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by an abundant 1%, favored by the decline in the yen. But the most positive note concerns Shanghai +1,7% on the wave of the positive trend in consumption during the New Year. Highlights are electric cars: the cut in state contributions has been less than feared. Thus celebrates Warren Buffet, a large shareholder of BYD, up 10%. The Omaha sage isn't the only one toasting. In 2013, George Soros earned $5,5 billion from the Quantum Fund.
After the storm of eight days ago, the financial markets seem to have regained their brilliance. Attention is now focused on the key data of the week, among which the release of the IMF report and the American Beige Book stand out. But the highlight will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress tomorrow and Wednesday. Wall Street finished the week higher despite disappointing US jobs data in January. From the highs of January 15, the S&P 500 index fell by 2,8%, but recovered 3% between Thursday and Friday.
Strong rebound for the European lists after the words of Mario Draghi and the decision of the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe to refer the verdict on the OMT plan launched by the ECB to the European Court of Justice. The weekly balance is negative only for Frankfurt -0,1%. Instead, London + 0,9% and Paris + 1,5% rose. Since the beginning of 2014, Madrid +1,6% and Zurich +1,5% have been in positive territory, preceded by Milan.
With the gain achieved on Friday (+0,9%), the FtseMib index recorded a positive weekly performance of 1,4%, which brings the change since the beginning of the year of Piazza Affari to +3,8%. , the best bag.
MOODY'S SHADOW ON THE BAD BANK. THE SPREAD? IT CAN GO DOWN TO 160 WITHIN THE YEAR
Mid-month Treasury auctions will be held on the eve of Moody's judgment. The amount of the medium-long term issues of 13 February will be communicated today. On Wednesday 3 it will be the turn of the 3-month (3 billion) and 12-month (8 billion) BOTs, the next day the 3-year BTPs will go to auction.
Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, has advanced on the sidelines of Assiom/Forex, the estimate of a spread of 160 points for the end of the year. “There is a large appetite for risk and Italy has a good trade-off between risk and return,” said the economist. "The ECB will stay with low rates longer than the Fed. Except for politics, in this context, Italy can attract more like Spain," he added. On Friday, the Btp/Bund spread closed at 208 bp.
VISCO OPENS AT THE BAD BANK, LETTA BRAKES
On Saturday, at the Assiom Forex congress, the governor of the Bank of Italy did not rule out an "ambitious" intervention for a system bad bank to tackle the problem of impaired loans amounting to around 300 billion, in addition to the private interventions underway which go " in the right direction". But, specified the director general of the Bank of Italy Salvatore Rossi, Italy will certainly not follow the example of Spain, financed with money from the European bailout fund. The bad bank solution, according to the Financial Times, also meets the opposition of Enrico Letta who fears the effects on Italy's rating. In fact, on Friday 14th, Valentine's Day, the dreaded update of the Italy rating by Moody's arrives.
BANKS, BETWEEN "LAUNDRY" AND RISIKO
In the meantime, Piazza Affari has rewarded private bad banks.
a) Unicredit +4% since the beginning of 2014, has already finalized two loan assignment transactions for a total of 1,65 billion euro.
b) Intesa Sanpaolo +4,2% announced that it is working on an internal 'bad bank' into which to channel part of its 55,5 billion euro of problem loans. The same, together with UniCredit, has ongoing talks with the private equity firm KKR to verify the feasibility of a vehicle in which to merge the restructured loans of the two groups.
c) Mediobanca instead, it is working on a project for the creation of vehicles that collect problem loans from medium-sized Italian banks with the aim of starting up by the summer. In the meantime, the risk starts again. In the spotlight Bank Pop from Etruria e Carige, waiting for the most important shots.
MONTE PASCHI BANK
Observed special Monte Paschi Bank, the top stock of the week with an increase of 6,8%. The Foundation, a 33,5% shareholder, took advantage of the market response to lighten its stake by exploiting the moments in which the Tuscan bank's stock was closer to 0,20 euro, in any case below the 0,24 euro at which the share is recorded in the entity's balance sheet. But CEO Fabrizio Viola hopes for much more news. “What I hope - Assiom/Forex said on the sidelines of the congress - is that the definition of the shareholding structure will actually be implemented as soon as possible and that words, and so many have been spent in this period, will finally and shortly be followed by concrete facts ”.
On the launch pad also the increase of Banca Popolare di Milano. The CEO Giuseppe Castagna intends to carry out the 500 million euro operation by 30 April, the date on which the guarantee consortium expires.
MANAGED RECORD WAITING FOR SOUL
Asset management stocks are flying, rewarded by funding and good ratings from Citigroup. Azimuth +6,6% during the week, reaching new all-time highs of 23,12 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the gain is 10% after +88% in 2013.
Citigroup analysts raised the target price to 26 euros from 21, confirming the Buy judgment. Target price also raised by Intermonte (25 euros) and Equita (24,3 euros). The company announced that it had raised €701 million in January, a record month-to-month amount. Promotion from Citigroup also for General Bank (buy, target price from 21 to 27 euros). Since the beginning of 2014, the stock has gained 6%. 2013 ended with a 75% increase.
Among the best titles also figure Mediolanum +6% in the week: for Citigroup the stock is Buy. Target price at 7,6 euros. It is in this context that another big name in the sector is about to make its debut in Piazza Affari: Holding soul, revenues, 2013 of approximately 220 million (+30%). Among the sellers, Monte dei Paschi and Banca Popolare di Milano will remain the main shareholders even after the IPO. Instead, Clessidra, the private equity firm led by Claudio Sposito, will be released.
TELECOM IN THE TOP TEN OF THE EUROSTOXX
Since the beginning of 2014, Telecom Italia has gained 18% and is the eighth best stock in the Eurostoxx 600 index. The markets, awaiting news on Tim Brasil and governance, welcomed the first data on the 2013 accounts with satisfaction: it was the indication previously provided on the debt was respected, i.e. that this has fallen below the threshold of 27 billion, and that the targets on the gross operating margin will also be respected, despite the fact that last year's revenues were down due to the greater competition in the telecommunications sector. Furthermore, it was decided to cancel the hybrid bond issue program for a total of 3 billion euro.
The managing director Marco Patuano, has renounced an increase in the emolument of 400 thousand euros, remaining fixed at the million previously assigned to him. Patuano himself has proposed that the definitive amount of his compensation – in the event that it is confirmed as CEO – be determined by the board that will emerge from the April meeting according to the amounts and criteria that the new top management intends to adopt.
THE ACCOUNTS OF ENEL AND CEMENT SHINE
It was the week of Enel +5,2% ed Enel Green Powerr +5,1%. The market has rewarded the reduction of the parent company's debts below the threshold of 40 billion. Also on the rise Buzzi Unicem +4,6% after the announcement of the preliminary results for 2013, closed with revenues down by 2,1% to 2,754 billion but debts down to 1,066 billion compared to 1,125 billion at the end of 2012.
In luxury it bounces Yoox +6,3, but Tod's -4,4% continues to suffer. Kepler Cheuvreux analysts have cut the company's target price from 100 euros to 95 euros, following the reduction of profitability estimates for 2013. The black shirt of the week instead belongs to Saipem –5,5%. Marshall Wace increased his short position on the stock to 0,63% of the capital.
