To vote, to vote. In Italy the fate of the future government hangs on the outcome of the vote on the Rousseau platform. But the attention of the markets, pending the reopening of Wall Street, is concentrated on London, where Parliament is reopening today for a session as short as it is dramatic which could lead to the call for elections by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to counter an anti-Bexit Commons vote. This morning the pound touched the minimum for two and a half years at 1,2030 against the dollar. And the effects are beginning to be felt on the European economy, which is already in trouble, as confirmed by the data on business activity. Suffice it to say that Germany's trade with London fell by 2019% in the second quarter of 21, contributing decisively to the decline in German GDP. A taste of what could happen after October 31, the date of the divorce if the Brexiters prevail.
CHINA REPORTS THE US TO THE WTO
In the meantime, the negotiations on tariffs remain on the high seas. The date of this month's meeting in Washington has not yet been set because those in charge of carrying out the negotiations cannot find an agreement on the work agenda. China has denounced the US to the WTO tribunal after the entry into force of the latest tariffs imposed by Washington. The data on US manufacturing activity, to be released in the afternoon, will make it possible to assess the impact of the tariff clash on the US economy. The impact on family budgets, according to initial calculations, will be around a thousand dollars of higher expenses. While awaiting a field day for Italian and European politics and the reopening of the US markets, Asian price lists thus float around parity.
THE YUAN FALLS, THE WEIGHT RISES
Tokyo's Nikkei is up 0,3% after a softer start. On parity the Hang Seng of Hong Hong, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen price lists, the Kospi of Seoul.
China's yuan weakens for the thirteenth day out of fourteen, hitting new long-term (nine-year) lows. The South Korean won, the Taiwan dollar, the Malaysian ringgit are also devalued.
The Argentine peso gained more than 5% against the dollar after the government, in an attempt to stem the new financial crisis, imposed a series of restrictions on the movement of capital. During tonight's press conference, the governor of the central bank, Guido Sandleris, said that negotiations have begun with the International Monetary Fund regarding the agreed monetary policy objectives.
Brent oil trades at 56,7 dollars a barrel, up slightly after yesterday's -3%. In August, OPEC crude exports increased by 0,7%, the first increase since the beginning of the year. At Piazza Affari Eni +0,6%, Tenaris -0,6%.
THE SINGLE CURRENCY AT A TWO-YEAR LOW ON THE DOLLAR
The euro fell this morning to 1,0939 against the dollar, to a two-year low, but appreciated against the pound at 0,909.
BUSINESS SQUARE +0,61%, DEBT/GDP DOWN TO 1,9%
On a day with a high level of uncertainty but low in exchanges due to the absence of Wall Street, Milan bet its chips on the success of the negotiations for the Conte bis government:
Piazza Affari marked an increase of 0,61%, reaching 21.451 points.
Italy should close 2019 with net debt at 1,9% of GDP instead of the 2,04% indicated last July, while the 2020 deficit is expected to be 1,6% under current legislation, according to reports from two sources at Reuters. According to the sources, "it is probable" that this year's accounts will end up better than expected in July with a deficit of around 1,9%.
Positive but much more modest closure for the other lists: Frankfurt +0,15%; Paris +0,23%; Madrid +0,07%.
The brightest place is London, +1,08%, thanks also to the weak pound (-0,7%) which supports exporters and depresses imports. Germany's trade with London fell by 2019% in the second quarter of 21, contributing to the decline in German GDP.
Bookmakers point to elections in October as the most likely, according to Ladbrokes, with a 75% chance of voting by the end of 2019.
THE SPREAD DOWN TO 167 POINTS. THE GERMAN CURVE STEEPER
The Italian secondary school is in positive territory, albeit below the maximum, pending the online vote of the 5 Star members, called to express themselves through the controversial Rousseau platform on the alliance with the Democratic Party which is a prelude to the birth of the Conte-bis.
Compared to the 174 basis points on Friday at the close, the yield gap between Italian and German ten-year rates has dropped to 167 basis points.
The 2029-year yield in August 1 remains a couple of cents below XNUMX%.
The 0,69-year Bund trades at -0,919%. The two-year trades at 12% close to all-time lows. The German market shows a steepening of the curve in view of the ECB council of 0,4 September which should launch a package of measures - in addition to cutting the -XNUMX% reference on deposits - to revive growth and inflation.
MAIO'S STAR TILTS, ATLANTIA SHINES
Atlantia shines (+2,4%) which recovers a large part of Friday's drop triggered by the declarations of Luigi Di Maio in favor of the revocation of the motorway concession. "We believe that the revocation of the concession is an unlikely event, at least in the short term, and that the most probable outcome is a review of the tariff system", writes Banca IMI in today's daily.
ASIAN EYES ON IVECO, ALFA COLLAPSES
Spotlights on today on CNH Industrial (+0,66%) in anticipation of the Capital Markets Day to be held today in New York which should provide some indication of the future of Iveco. The most popular hypothesis is the spin-off of Iveco, courted by various Asian investors.
Fiat-Chrysler -0,1%. After a substantially stable July (-0,1%) the car market is once again losing ground in Italy. The decline in August was 3,1%. In the Fca group, Lancia shines (+95% thanks to the Ypsilon), Alfa Romeo shoulder (- 68%).
Ferrari advances by 0,5% after Charles Leclerc's victory at the Belgian grand prix ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
MPS DOESN'T STOP, TOWARDS THE MEDIASET BATTLE
Bankers mixed, subdued in Europe. The +6,6% of Banca Mps - particularly sensitive to political developments given that by the end of the year the Treasury must inform the EU how to get out of the bank's capital - is counterbalanced by the -1,7% of Ubi.
Mediaset +0,61%. Simon Fiduciaria, which holds the 19,9% stake held by Vivendi, announced "any further initiative" to be admitted to the meeting which will have to approve the establishment of the Dutch holding company which will merge the activities in Italy and Spain.
HGO BOSS BOOSTERS SAFILO
Fly Safilo which closes up 9% to 1,08 euro after the renewal of the license agreement with Hugo Boss for the collections of sunglasses.
Record increases also for Beghelli (+12,5%) and Pininfarina (+14%).
