China is getting closer and closer. According to the Financial Times, on the occasion of Xi Jingping's visit, Italy is preparing to sign much more than a trade agreement with Beijing: the infrastructures envisaged as part of the Silk Road will be financed by the Asian Infrastructure Bank, despite the concerns of Brussels and Washington.
Meanwhile, tonight the plenum of the National People's Congress approved a law on the regulation of investments by foreign companies in China: the text also contains a provision for the protection of patents and technologies held by foreign companies. The latter will no longer be forced to share or reveal their skills and industrial know-how. This is a rule requested several times by the United States, which could unblock the complex negotiations between the two superpowers.
NO OF THE US SENATE TO TRUMP
The China dossier, together with the new chapters of the Brexit dossier and the veto of the US Senate (thanks to the defection of 12 Republicans) of Trump's new request for funds for the anti-immigrant wall on the Mexican border, conditions the performance of the price lists, together with the boom in oil prices. Nothing, for now, that damages the optimism underpinned by central bank decisions.
But the day will close with the most awaited verdict: the update of the rating on Italy by Moody's. The markets, judging by the prices, are betting that the feared relegation will not take place. Let's do the incantations.
MSCI ASIA INDEX CLOSES WEEK UP +2%
Asian stock markets are up this morning, discounting the forecast of an imminent trade peace between China and the United States. The state agency Xinhua reports a "constructive" phone call between Liu He and Robert Lightizer, the de in charge of the negotiations. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks is up 1,9%. Hong Kong +0,9%. Seoul +0,6%.
Tokyo's Nikkei index rose by 1%, even if tonight the Bank of Japan revised its forecasts on the main economic indicators downwards, as everyone expected. The yen, Asia's safe haven, weakened to 111,7 against the dollar.
The region's benchmark index, the MSCI Asia Pacific, is heading to close out the week with a gain of almost 2%.
The news arriving from the East is destined to dissolve the worries that emerged yesterday on the US markets, worried about the postponement of Xi's visit to the United States. Flat the Dow Jones (-0,03%), weak S&P 500 (-0,09%) and Nasdaq (-0,16%).
OIL AT 67 DOLLARS, ENI'S BUSINESS PLAN TODAY
Oil remains at its peak. Brent is traded this morning at 67,2 dollars a barrel, closed slightly lower last night. This morning Société Générale raises its medium-term forecasts for North Sea crude oil by five barrels to 70 dollars a barrel: average price target for the third quarter. Analysts at the French bank state that sanctions against Iran and Venezuela's difficulties in maintaining production levels are the two most relevant issues. Saudi Arabia does not seem to want to fill what could be missing in the coming months on the fossil fuel markets.
Eni stable yesterday (+0,1%), which will present the strategic plan today. Saipem (+0,1%) announced that it has received orders for 222 million dollars in the drilling area.
The euro trades at 1,131 against the dollar, up slightly, yesterday -0,2%. The euro-sterling, after five days of very large daily movements, due to the Brexit convulsions, seems to want to settle at 0,854, yesterday the euro gained 0,5% against the pound.
LONDON ASKS FOR TIME, ALL ON THE EUROPEAN LISTS
The European stock exchanges are advancing compactly, now one step away from the highs of October. The risk of a hard Brexit as well as possible interest rate tensions are receding. The postponement of President Xi's visit to the US does not damage general confidence, even if Frankfurt, the most sensitive to tariffs, is the most cautious market.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index +0,62% closed at 22.925 after trading for 2,4 billion euros (+18,26%, compared to the previous day). Toned Paris (+0,82%), ahead of Madrid (+0,19%).
They weigh on Frankfurt (+0,11%) and the accounts of Lufthansa (-6,04%). But the Ifo index influences the price list, which shows that in 2019 the German economy will grow by only 0,6%, halving the previous estimate of 1,1%. Growth will pick up again in 2020 (+1,8% against an initial forecast of +1,6%).
London +0,36% awaiting the umpteenth vote on Brexit, this time to decide whether or not to postpone the deadline for leaving the EU, until now set at 29 March on the agenda. In the evening the request was approved: Great Britain will ask for a three-month postponement to start the separation.
BTP AT 2,5%, NEW PURCHASING BOOM
The honeymoon of the bond markets continues with the Italian paper. Yesterday evening the reopening of offers on 3, 7 and 20-year bonds reserved for specialists closed with a full house.
The ten-year bond yield closed at 2,5%. The spread slips to 241 points against 249. The yield of the German benchmark has in fact risen to 0,091 (+5,81%).
LEONARDO TAKES FLIGHT
Leonardo took off in Piazza Affari (+13%), on the highs since November on the wave of record volumes: over 16 million shares changed hands, the highest daily quantity in the last eight months. The company ended 2018 with Ebita of 1,13 billion euros, about forty million euros above consensus expectations. For 2019 Leonardo expects 1,17-1,22 billion euros of Ebita, revenues between 12,5 and 13 billion euros of revenues. Following the positive accounts, Kepler-Cheuvreux promoted the recommendation to Buy from Hold, bringing the target to 11,80 euros from 10,50 euros.
BANKS ON THE RISE, BPM SUPERSTAR. GENERAL, ACCOUNTS OK
The decline in the spread and the imminent launch of the new Gacs (the new public guarantee scheme will have a duration of two years) have favored the rebound in the banking sector. In strong recovery Banco Bpm +4,43 ahead of Bper +2,02%. Unicredit (+1,3%) and Ubi Banca (+1,2%) also did well. Understanding +0,72%.
Generali +1,2% on the day of accounts. Il Leone closed 2018 with €65,2 billion in premiums, down 2,6% year on year, slightly below expectations. Operating profit down 1,8% to 4,85 billion euros, but slightly above analysts' estimates. Net result at 2,31 billion, down 6,8%. Combined ratio at 93%: consensus expected 92,6%. The board of directors proposes the payment of a dividend of €0,90, in line with expectations.
Out of the main basket, Autogrill +4% after the results, which are placed at the top of the range indicated by the company. Net profit stands at 68,7 million euro. The company expects to pay a dividend of €0,2 per share. Amplifon +3,5%.
DEBUT CONTRASTED FOR THE DAILY EVENT
In sharp decline after the accounts Safilo (-4%) and De Longhi (-4,9%). Maire Tecnimont is also down (-4%), at the center of an investigation by the Milan prosecutor's office.
Contrasted debut at the AIM del Fatto Quotidiano: double-digit increase at the start but -0,69% at the end.
