The OECD has lowered its growth estimates on Italian GDP for 2018. According to the forecasts of the Organization for economic cooperation and development, the Italian domestic product will grow by 1,2% in the current year compared to the 1,4% estimated at the end of May. Instead, the forecasts for 2019 have been confirmed, when according to the OECD our country will grow by +1,1%.
This is the slower pace of expansion than the G7 and the penultimate in the G20, where Argentina wears the black jersey, whose economy will contract by 1,9% in 2019 to rise by 0,1% in 2019%.
These are the data contained in the Interim Economic Outlook, which provides an update of the economic picture of the major countries. Compared to the two half-yearly reports, the OECD economists point out that in Italy “a slowdown in growth is probable. Uncertainty about political choices, the increase in interest rates and the decrease in job creation are slowing down household consumption'.
Furthermore, Italy's performance, being the third largest economy in the Eurozone, could also have a bearing on the future of the EU and the Eurozone. “Concerns about financial and fiscal stability in Europe persist – reads the report – due to the uncertainties about political choices, including those of Italy and about future agreements between the United Kingdom and the rest of the EU”. In the study, the OECD economists also explain that “the recent increase in the spread on Italian government bonds and the fall in the share prices of Italian banks connected to it provide a demonstration of the speed with which the fragility of the euro area can re-emerge”.
It should be emphasized that the OECD forecasts correspond to those previously disclosed by the International Monetary Fund and by the Moody's rating agency. The EU Commission is more optimistic, forecasting instead a +1,3% in 2018 and +1,1% in 2019. The Treasury in last April's Def aimed at +1,5% and +1,4%. In 2017, the Italian GDP increased by 1,6%.
