GDP returns to growth on an annual basis after 13 quarters of contraction and stagnation, while prices recover after four months of deflation. Only consumption remains flat. This is the picture that emerges from the numbers published this morning by Istat.
GDP +0,1% ON YEAR IN THE FIRST QUARTER
The Statistical Institute corrected the preliminary data on an annual basis relating to the first quarter of 2015, bringing it to +0,1%. Previously, a null change was indicated. It is only a tenth of a point, but it is still the first time that the annual indicator has returned above the zero threshold after more than three years. On the other hand, the +0,3% on a quarterly basis was confirmed, which brought our country out of the technical recession.
Compared to the previous quarter, the main aggregates of domestic demand show dissimilar trends, with national final consumption slightly decreasing (-0,1%) and gross fixed investments growing by 1,5%. In terms of foreign trade, imports increased (1,4%) and exports remained stationary.
INFLATION: PRICES +0,2% IN MAY
Inflation has also returned this month: after four consecutive months of negative values, in May the national consumer price index rose by 0,2% both on the year and on the month. The recovery in inflation, after four consecutive months of decline, is mainly due to the further reduction of the year-on-year decline in the prices of non-regulated energy goods (-7,2%, from -8,7% in April) and to the acceleration of the growth trend in the prices of services. The inversion of the annual trend in the prices of services relating to transport (+0,8%, from -0,6% in April) and the acceleration in the growth of those of recreational, cultural and of personal care (+0,9%, from +0,7% in April).
Net of unprocessed food and energy goods, core inflation shows a rise (+0,6%, from +0,3% in April), while net of energy goods alone it rises to +0,8 % (it was +0,6% the previous month). The month-on-month increase in the general index is mainly attributable to the increase in the prices of non-regulated energy goods (+1,8%) – due to increases in fuel prices – and of recreational, cultural and health care services person (+0,5%), with particular regard to accommodation facilities.
Compared to May 2014, the prices of goods show a further reduction of the decline (-0,3%, from -0,5% in April) and the growth rate of the prices of services accelerates (+0,7%, from +0,3% from the previous month). As a result, compared to April 2015, the inflation differential between services and goods widened by two tenths of a percentage point.
According to preliminary estimates, the harmonized index of consumer prices (Ipca) increases by 0,2% both on a monthly basis and compared to May 2014 (the previous month the trend rate was -0,1%).
As for the so-called shopping cart, the prices of food, home and personal care products increased by 0,1% on a monthly basis and recorded a stable growth on an annual basis at 0,8%. The prices of frequently purchased products rose by 0,3% in both economic and trend terms (the annual rate was zero in April).
Fuel prices also rose in May. According to Istat estimates, the prices of both petrol and diesel for means of transport increased by 2,4% compared to April. On an annual basis, however, they recorded a further downsizing of the tendential decline (-6,3%, from -7,9% in April for the former; -8,6% from -10,7% in the previous month for the latter ).
Conversely, the prices of other fuels fell, on a monthly basis, by 1%, due to the drop in LPG, with a stable decrease on an annual basis at -13,4%, having been recorded a similar cyclical decline in May 2014 (-0,9%).
CONSUMPTION STILL IN THE FIRST QUARTER (-0,1%)
Finally, as regards consumption, in the first quarter the expenditure of resident households and private social institutions decreased, in quarterly terms, by 0,1%, while that of the Public Administration increased by 0,1%. Compared to the first quarter of 2014, final consumption increased by 0,3%.
