It is no longer a question of understanding when, the nightmare of the recession has already arrived. And the year that awaits us will be even worse than the one that closes: in 2012 Italy's GDP will drop by 1%. This is the scenario outlined by the Intesa Sanpaolo study center in its publication entitled "Macroeconomic scenario 2012".
According to the Bank's experts, ours is among “the countries of the Eurozone that have already entered a phase of recession. GDP should have contracted throughout the second half of 2011, and a further decline is very likely in the first half of 2012”.
In addition to a less lively international context than in previous years, the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in terms of effects on domestic demand of the three fiscal correction maneuvers adopted in July, August and December, which overall should have a theRecessionary impact equal to about 1,6% of GDP, persistence of restrictive financial conditions, negative impact on the climate of confidence deriving from the debt crisis”.
The scenario, the Study Center explains again, shows a new cut in world GDP growth estimates for 2012, “largely due to worse expectations on the performance of the European economy and to a lesser extent to less favorable prospects for the commodity markets”.
as to economic maneuver of the Monti government, "has not yet resolved all the knots of the Italian economy and presents some critical points, but it represents a necessary step to reassure the markets". Furthermore, "new measures linked to an overall review of public expenditure (spending review) and structural reforms are foreseeable, starting with that of the labor market".
