A systematic review SACE-Value D "In search of lost growth. Opportunities and returns of a more international Italy” was presented on 19/11 by Roberta Marracino, Director of the Studies and Communications Area of SACE at the III Forum of the Association of which the insurance group has been a member for three years. Interesting study see internationalization as a way out of the crisis for companies and as a lever for the relaunch of the country. From 2007 to 2013, Italy lost 8,5 percentage points of GDP, the contribution of exports to GDP growth was negative (-0,9% of GDP). In other European countries this contribution was notably positive: in Germany it amounted to 7,5% of GDP, in Spain 4,5%. Our country is struggling to see the end of the tunnel. The recipes aimed at bringing the country out of the quagmire are the most disparate, all of them start from the relaunch of consumption and investments, few foresee the use of the third lever of national income creation: the export. The in-depth analysis of the import-export balance may influence the exclusion of the export lever from the debate. For Italy, this accounting entity is positive (export>import) and growing (the balance has improved over the years) but this only happened due to a reduction in imports. Total exports, gross of imports, are now worth about 30% of GDP; too much to be excluded from the debate. The countries mentioned above have an incidence of exports on GDP that is certainly greater than ours: Germany had an incidence (again gross of imports) in 2007 of 47%, Spain of 31%.
The study, by making a comparison with other European countries that have exploited the lever of internationalization better than us, investigates the effects of a possible increase in exports and its result on the national macroeconomic situation and on the impact on the labor market. Some estimates predict an incidence of exports on the GDP of Germany and Spain for 2017 equal to 58% and 41% respectively. Achieving this result will only be possible thanks to a strategy conceived - and implemented - in time. In addition to planning capacity, these results also discount a more general overperformance in all geographical areas. Between 2000 and 2013, German and Spanish exports to Europe - both in the most advanced areas and in emerging ones - grew at twice the rate of those in Italy; goods and products sent to advanced non-European countries recorded increases of 4-6 times; and also on the emerging markets of Asia, Africa and South America, our country has marked the pace.
The decision to exclude the export lever from the debate concerning possible public policies is often justified by the composition of our entrepreneurial fabric. Italy is made up of 95% of micro enterprises (less than 10 employees), these will certainly have greater difficulties, compared to a large company, in entering foreign markets. These difficulties are generally due to low capacity to sell their products across the border or to reduced financial resources. In order to also consider this aspect, Sace has estimated the propensity towards internationalization by dividing companies according to the number of employees, so as to be able to make a comparison between more or less similar companies in the three countries. The unexpected result is the following: our companies have a lower propensity to internationalise, regardless of size. Other interesting data published in the study, but taken from an Istat survey, show that the companies that have best faced the crisis are those that have internationalized. 51% of the sample interviewed (30000 companies with over 20 employees) saw their turnover grow abroad between 2010 and 2013.
Le conclusions main features of the study are two:
if we manage to reach a 44% incidence of exports on GDP in 2018, we could generate additional exports of around 40 billion euros a year, with an increase in national income in four years of around 125 billion euros, equal to a growth of 9% compared to the current GDP;
– considering the elasticity of employment with respect to GDP, this impact would translate into 1,8 million new jobs.
In other words, by adequately exploiting the leverage of exports, Italy could restore its pre-crisis economic situation. Sace itself indicates the main countries in which to intervene to generate the aforementioned additional exports. Of this, around 20 billion could be recovered through better penetration of low-medium risk and growing emerging markets, in particular from China, Poland, Algeria, Turkey and India alone, 13 billion in exports could be recovered, another 6 billion should come from a range of areas located in the Middle East, South America, and Asia.
