Slightly higher opening for the financial markets, both for the Asian lists and for the futures of the western markets. Operators are resigned to an increase in the cost of money, but are confident that the balance sheets of the major US banks, due out on Friday, can give the Bull a strong boost. The result is a climate of anticipation, awaiting the indications of the Fed.
Asia, more linked to technology, recovered some positions after the sharp drop in the Nasdaq. For Europe, writes Jeffrey Halley of Oanda, “public debt auctions and the trend of the 0,0-year bund will be interesting. If this moves above XNUMX%, European equities could be spooked, given that the only region of the world more dependent on central bank money than Europe is Japan.
No less worrying is the tug of war over energy: “Berlin is ready to block Nord Stream 2 if Putin will use energy as a weapon. The EU points to energy independence ”, she says Print the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, on the day of her mission to Rome.
CHINESE TECH +5% IN THREE SESSION
The Shanghai Stock Exchange gained 0,2% this morning. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,9%. The Hang Seng Tech sector index rises for the third consecutive day, gaining 5% in three sessions.
Mumbai's BSE Sensex +0,8%, Singapore's Straits Times +0,7%. Kospi of Seoul -1%. The Tokyo stock market is closed for holidays.
POSITIVE FUTURES ON THE EUROSTOXX, OIL AT 81 DOLLARS
The future on Wall Street was positive (+0,3%). Same variation for that on the Eurostoxx 50.
The euro dollar fell 0,2% to 1,136. The exchange rate reduced from a weekly gain of 0,4%. The 1,77-year Treasury Note restarts from XNUMX%, around the highs of the last two years.
WTI oil is flat at $79 a barrel, up from 4,9% last week. Brent at 81,86. The reference price of gas for Europe lost 14% on Friday, but, due to the increases in the previous three sessions, the weekly balance is +28%.
US INFLATION SOS: GOLDMAN SEEING FOUR RAISES IN 2022
Inflation, energy and the accounts of the big US banks. A week full of financial data opens in a hot geopolitical context, from the first US-Russia contact in Geneva to the Kazakhstan crisis. The most important event in the eyes of the market will be Wednesday's inflation data: a rise to 5,4% is expected, but a year-on-year rise of 7,1%, the highest since 1982, cannot be ruled out. first the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will illustrate to Congress the anti-expensive strategy of the Central Bank: the first rate hike already in March is not excluded. Goldman Sachs has added a fourth rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2022 to its forecasts: balance sheet normalization should begin in July, if not sooner.
BANK ACCOUNTS AT THE START WITH JP MORGAN
Wall Street experienced its worst week since last February: Nasdaq -4,7%. The yield on ten-year T bonds reached a maximum of 1,8% (up 27 points).
In this context, Delta Airlines will open the parade of year-end accounts this week, waiting for the big banks: on Friday it will be the turn of Citigroup and JP Morgan, followed by Goldman Sachs (on the 18th), Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. The forecasts are good: the institutions have acknowledged that the pandemic has weighed less than expected on profits and have unfrozen a large part of the provisions (36 billion out of 50) already made against possible losses. Also noteworthy on Wednesday was the release of the Beige Book.
SCHNABEL (ECB): RISING RATES FOR ENERGY
Even in Europe there is talk of rising interest rates again. The taboo was broken by Isabel Schnabel, a German member of the ECB, who in an interview with Financial Times he argued that the energy transition policy will require a further increase in energy prices, requiring the European Central Bank to keep the interest rate lever high. In short, the increase in inflation is not temporary.
Commissioner Thierry Breton intervenes in the debate: "500 billion euros by 2050" will be needed to finance clean nuclear power plants.
BUND, GOODBYE TO ZERO RETURN
The ten-year Bund is one step away from returning above zero, an important threshold from a psychological point of view. The 2016-year Berlin, which has been offering negative yields since 0,03, trades at -XNUMX%.
On the macro front, investors are also paying attention to unemployment in the Eurozone to analyze how much the economic recovery goes hand in hand with the indications of the ECB. UK industrial production will also be in the spotlight.
From the speeches of the ECB president Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) indications could arrive on the line that the European Central Bank intends to take.
CARIGE AND TIM, TWO CHALLENGES FOR THE BUSINESS PLACE
In Piazza Affari today there could already be an important step for the sale of Carige, after the improvement of the offer presented by Bper.
Finally, the Tim dossier should be monitored: on Wednesday the unions meet the general manager Pietro Labriola, not yet the managing director: the board of directors to give him the powers could be set in these days.
