In Italy theinflation slows down but the expense costs more. In February 2023 theIstat calculates a small slowdown on an annual basis (+9,1% against +10% in the previous month), but the monthly figure shows an increase of 0,2%. “The decline is the result of the easing of tensions on the prices of energy goods, both for the regulated and non-regulated component. However, the upward pressure on prices in the sector of processed and unprocessed food goods, tobacco and services continues, almost all of which tend to accelerate – highlights the note of the Institute -. As a consequence of these trends, the growth on an annual basis of the core component (+6,3%) and that of the so-called shopping cart, which goes back to +12,7%, after the slowdown observed in January”.
The international scenario remains characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and downside risks”, highlights the research institute in the Note on the performance of the Italian economy in February. And he warns: "a path of inflation recovery is starting to take longer than initially expected".
Inflation slows but the core component rises
The inflation acquired for 2023 is equal to +5,4% for the general index and +3,7% for the core component. Coming to the harmonized index of consumer prices, the Ipca increases by 0,1% on a monthly basis and by 9,8% on an annual basis (a slowdown from +10,7% in January); the preliminary estimate was +9,9%. The national consumer price index for blue-collar and white-collar households (Foi), net of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0,2% on a monthly basis and 8,9% on an annual basis.
Why is inflation slowing down?
The decrease in the inflation rate (to +9,1% from +9,2% previously estimated) is mainly due to the strong slowdown on a trend basis in the prices of regulated energy goods (which went from -12% to -16,4% %) and the deceleration of unregulated energy prices (from +59,3% to +40,8%), the effects of which were only partially offset by the acceleration in food prices, both processed (from +14,9, 15,5% to +8,0%) and unprocessed (from +8,7% to +1,8%), of tobacco products (from a zero trend variation to +5,5%), of the prices of recreational services , cultural and personal care (from +6,1% to +5,9%) and transport-related services (from +6,4% to +XNUMX%).
Growth in goods is down, growth in services is up
Core inflation net of energy and fresh food accelerated from +6% to +6,3%, that net of energy goods alone from +6,2% to +6,4%. The growth on an annual basis in the prices of goods slows down (from +14,1% to +12,4%), while on the contrary that relating to services is accentuated (from +4,2% to +4,4%). bringing the inflation differential between the services and goods sectors to -8 percentage points, from -9,9 in January.
Most expensive shopping cart
On the other hand, however, the prices of the products that are placed in the shopping cart every day have increased. For example, prices of food goods, for home and personal care recorded an acceleration in trend terms (from +12% to +12,7%), while those of high-frequency purchase products remained almost stable, from +8,9% to +9,0% in February. The cyclical increase in the general index is mainly due to the prices of unprocessed food (+2,4%), tobacco (+1,9%), processed food (+0,9%), services relating to transport (+0,8%), durable goods (+0,7%), non-durable goods (+0,6%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (+0,5%) and services relating to housing (+0,4%). On the other hand, a containment effect derives from the drop in energy prices, both regulated (-4,9%) and unregulated (-4,2%).
Inflation slows, but what will the ECB do?
The indications coming from the statistical institutes are not easy to interpret in reflection of the ECB, which today Thursday 16 March will raise interest rates. But in the light of the crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US there are some doubts about the extent of these increases, aimed at slowing down inflation. So much so that the market is no longer sure even of the expected 50-point rise announced by the president Christine Lagarde herself at the February meeting.
