Inflation continues to beat forecasts. The increase ineuro area reached 7,5%, according to the preliminary estimate released this morning by Eurostat, compared to +5,9% in February. This is a new high since the launch of the single currency and clearly exceeds the consensus estimate of +6,9%. The cause undoubtedly lies in the increase in energy prices (+44,7% compared to +32% in February). But not only that, he warns Nouriel Roubini, the economist who from Cernobbio warns that it is also the result of "excessive" monetary and fiscal stimuli which have caused "a mini stagflation“. For now, there are no obvious reactions on the bond market. The 2,41-year Treasury Note trades at 5%, +2,39 basis points. The two-year is at 0,57%. The debate among economists on the meaning of the inverted curve continues. Bund at 2%, +2,07 basis points. BTPs at XNUMX%.
In this context, traders prefer to focus on resumption of negotiations, albeit only online, between Moscow and Kiev, with a relative easing of raw material prices rather than on the macro data on jobs in the USA, which in the afternoon could give a new boost to the short-term increase in the cost of money.
European stock markets up, driven by Generali and banks
The price lists of the Old Continent, awaiting the outcome of the talks between the EU and China, have taken the upward path, driven by Piazza Affari + 0,76 over 25.200 points, supported by banks and insurance companies. It's always the race to pull Generali +1,97% around 21,2 euros. The banks follow: the rise is favored by the assurances of the president of the credit supervisory board Andrea Enrico who said that "the direct exposures of European banks to Russian counterparties appear manageable, which means that the initial impact on the financial stability of the euro area is limited". Unicredit rebounds +1,51% which completed the sale of the shares held in the Turkish bank Yapi Kredi, equal to 18% of the capital, to Koc Holding. Banco Bpm also up +2,3% and Fineco +2,2%.
The other markets also gain share, including Frankfurt +0,35%: the price of natural gas drops a few positions from yesterday's highs after the Putin's decree on payment in rubles. Gazprom said it was continuing to supply natural gas to Europe through Ukraine in line with the demands of European consumers. The company said requests stood at 108,4 million cubic meters (mcm) for April 109,5, down from XNUMX million cubic meters the day before.
Il WTI oil, overwhelmed yesterday by the decision of the United States to use strategic reserves, this morning it is again below one hundred dollars, down 1% to 98,80 dollars. Brent at $105 after an attack by eight Ukrainian helicopters on Russian territory resulted in the destruction of a large fuel depot. Still featured Saipem +2,62%.
Curb the rush of agricultural products
Finally, a breath of fresh air also for the quotations of agricultural products, corn (-2,5%) and soft wheat (-2%) in the lead, while durum wheat (+1%) recorded a slight increase compared to the last few weeks.
Returning to Piazza Affari, the new one should be mentioned Tim's drop -4,45% (-4% savings) to be linked to the probable ending of the landio of a takeover bid by Kkr. Telecom Italia and Cassa Depositi e Prestiti are preparing to shortly start formal negotiations on the project to create the so-called single network, which aims at integrating Tim's fixed network assets with those of Open Fiber. Barclays cuts the target price to 0,13 euro.
It is worth noting the increase of Campari +2,5%, Citi upgraded the judgment to Buy, target 12,20 euros.
