One hundred and thirty-two billion euros. Here is how much Covid cost the Italian manufacturing industry in the calendar year 2020, according to estimates by Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo. As a percentage, compared to 2019, Italian manufacturing turnover will have lost 10,2%: an enormous figure, even if less heavy than that of 2009, when the contraction was almost double in percentage, equal to 18,8%. The "merit" of this relatively small decline, according to the analysts of Prometeia and Intesa, is the recovery in the August-November period, when turnover returned more or less to pre-Covid levels (-0,4%).
“The autumn worsening of the contagion curve did not significantly affect the industrial recovery, even though it added uncertainty to a global scenario characterized by still weak demand”, explains Prometeia-Intesa in the February Industrial Sector Analysis Newsletter. At the sectoral level, pre-Covid levels are holding up for Food & Beverages and Pharmaceuticals, and a more intense recovery of expectations for Appliances and Furniture, driven by consumption rising from the spring lows. The recovery of the building cycle has also given a strong boost to the building materials and products sector and partial support to the metal supply chain, while even motor vehicles and motorcycles are on the rise, thanks to incentives for the purchase of ecological cars.
As for exports, in the first ten months of 2020, Italian exports of manufactured goods decreased by 11,5% at current values, against a substantially similar contraction in volumes traded. The most significant negative contribution to the evolution of our exports, according to the Prometeia and Intesa scholars, came from the continental partners (-11.8% sales in the EU area, in January-October), but a downward trend also concerns sales non-European countries (-11.1%), including Asian ones (-14.8%), which however saw a intense recovery of trade with China in the second half of the year (+13% between July and October), driven by Mechanics, Automotive, Food and Beverages and (from September) also Fashion products.
What signs are there in this beginning of 2021? Leading indicators show signs of consolidation of manufacturing activity at the start of 2021, with expectations of strengthening in the second half of the year. “The unfolding of the effects of the vaccination campaign – argues the study – will lead to a relaxation of restrictions worldwide, with visible effects also on international trade. The speed of Italian manufacturing will depend on the strategic choices aimed at receiving European resources, which will also be able to boost private investments".
