The US economy is strong, but financial conditions remain super-expansive for now. In short, the ideal to make good profits. Of course, the threat of inflation looms, which sooner or later will hit rates and, consequently, growth. But, for the moment, it's not happening: the rise in yields is modest, consumption is accelerating (+1% in October, a clear increase) and Wall Street can indulge in one last folly: the boom in new electric cars, Rivian and Lucid, who have overtaken Volkswagen and the big names in Detroit in just one week. The euphoria of US finance is only partially transmitted to Europe (threatened by the wave of the pandemic) and Asia. But the dollar boom is taking care of exporting a little optimism, the right medicine to relaunch exports, held back by logistics bottlenecks.
HEDGES RETURN TO CHINA, TOKYO'S EXPORTS HOLDING DOWN
The MSCI Asia Pacific index is down slightly after four positive sessions. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists was also weak (-0,2%). Ray Dalio, head of the largest hedge fund in the world, Dalio Bridgewater Associates, and a great admirer of Beijing, confirms his friend of the peaceful coexistence between the two Bigs: funding has been opened for a new investment fund in China, with a target of three billion yuan ($470 million).
Tokyo's Nikkei -0,3% on the day of the publication of data on the trade balance: in October exports rose by 9,4%, slightly below what was expected by the consensus. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,3%. Kospi of Seoul -1%. Mumbai's BSE Sensex up slightly. The Sydney Stock Exchange is closed.
WAL-MART SALES WELL, BUT THE STOCK DOWN
Wall Street has stood the test of consumption. The Nasdaq finished up 0,8%, the S&P500 up 0,4%. Dow Jones +0,15%.
Month-on-month US industrial production grew by 1,6% in October, above expectations of +0,9%. The previous figure was negative by 1,3%.
However, Wal-Mart (-2,25%) is losing ground, hit by problems in the supply chain. In the third quarter, the distribution group reported revenues up 4,3% to $140,5 billion and adjusted earnings per share rising from $1,34 to $1,45. Diluted earnings per share fell from $1,80 to $1,11. In the light of the results, the large-scale distribution giant has raised its targets. It now expects full-year comparable sales up 6% and full-year adjusted earnings per share of $6,40 versus a previous forecast of $6,20-6,35.
MUSK CONTINUES TO SELL, RIVIAN IS WORTH 133 BILLION
Tesla +3%. Elon Musk has still sold shares, 934 thousand to be precise: given the average price, it is a package of 930 million dollars.
Rival Rivian gains 5%. Yesterday, the stock was up 15%, to almost $150, just under double the price of last week's IPO. Its market capitalization has already reached $133 billion. Meanwhile Lucid (+23%) has surpassed the capitalization of Volkswagen.
President Biden's decision on the appointment of the governor of the Federal Reserve should arrive by Saturday. Yesterday, the president of the Saint Louis Fed, James Bullard, said that we need to hurry up on inflation; on the contrary, Mary Daly, head of the San Francisco Fed, believes that there isn't all this hurry, because raising rates prematurely, in case consumer prices should fall again within a year or so, it would cause a lot of damage.
TREASURY AT 1,60%, WAITING FOR AUCTION AT 20 YEARS
The 1,64-year Treasury notes traded at the minimum prices for the period at 1,59%, from XNUMX% yesterday morning, just a few hours after the auction of US government bonds with a XNUMX-year duration, a placement that many operators they fear it may have a negative outcome.
The euro dollar is in the sixth consecutive session of decline at 1,129. Seventh day of rising of the dollar-Turkish lira cross and new all-time high: tomorrow the central bank of Istanbul could announce another rate cut.
WTI oil down 0,7% to $80,2 a barrel.
Bitcoin recovered above $60 ($50.249) recovering part of the losses from the highs ($66).
PANDEMIC, CHRISTMAS MARKETS CLOSED IN MUNICH
Flat stock prices, fixed income on standby. After the records reached in the morning, the stock markets slowed down, held back by the rise of the pandemic, which prompted the authorities to cancel the Christmas markets in Munich. In this context, the long-term commitment of the ECB seems obvious, as foreseen by the research office of Intesa San Paolo: "From now until the end of the year - write the experts - we expect that purchases will be reduced by supporting the of net offer, especially in the month of December, so as to bring the total purchased in the fourth quarter to 267 billion euros, down by 30 billion compared to the third quarter”.
In the first quarter of 2022, however, purchases under the PEPP should remain at the level of the current quarter (260 billion euro) and the program should end with unused availability of approximately 40 billion, so as to complete the program just before the increase in the rates, expected for the second half of 2023.
30-YEAR DOLLAR TREASURY BONDS
Meanwhile, the Btp is accelerating in a market with thin volumes. The yield differential between the Italian and German ten-year yields closed at 119 basis points (-1,74%) with the BTP rate slightly decreasing to +0,91% (-0,27% for the Bund).
The Treasury has mandated a pool of banks to reopen the 30-year US dollar bond launched last April, with initial indications of around 190 basis points on the Libor Midswap.
RECORD QUARTER FOR DIVIDENDS
The flow of dividends globally is growing rapidly. According to the latest Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index, distribution increased at a record 2021% year-over-year pace in the third quarter of 22, hitting an all-time quarterly high of $403,5 billion.
Janus Henderson's dividend ratio is now just 2% below its pre-pandemic peak in Q2020 90. XNUMX% of companies globally have increased or confirmed dividends. This is the fastest pace since the launch of the Index.
MILAN (-0,23%) STILL CLOSE TO THE HIGHESTS
Milan lost 0,23%, to 27.804 points, penalized by achievements after reaching the highest points of the year on Monday. Contrast the other European squares, which are however in the maximum area.
Paris +0,34%. Kering is running (+5%) under the impetus of the positive forecasts for 2021 of the Gucci brand. For HSBC now the title is "buy". Historical records also for Lvmh, Hermès and L'Oréal.
Worth noting is the rise of Crypto Blockchain Industries, introduced on the stock exchange at the end of October by a former Atari executive with a turnover of 150 thousand euros. In just three weeks, the start-up has achieved a 40-fold increase, also because the tokens developed by the company will be used in part to finance a charity initiative promoted by David Guetta, the most famous DJ in the world. The Blockchain Group has also started a collaboration with Stellantis.
VODAFONE (+5%) WAKES UP THE TLC
Amsterdam flies high (+0,4%), with the leap of Prosus (+4,2%) after forecasting a growing profit for the first half of 2022 with proceeds of around 12,3 billion dollars from the sale of part of its stake in the Chinese Tencent.
Madrid loses share (-0,65%). London -0,34%. Vodafone shines on the British market (+5%) after raising its forecasts for the year. The sale of the majority stake in the Vantage Towers company is also under consideration.
FRANKFURT: 7 RECORDS IN 9 SESSION, FLY QIAGEN (+8%)
The Frankfurt Dax index marks the seventh historical record of the last nine sessions, reaching 16.238 points. The performance since the beginning of the year improves to +18,30%, a slightly worse balance than that recorded by the Eurostoxx 50 index (+23,50%) and by our FtseMib (+25%).
Qiagen leads the session with an 8% jump. The company produces sample and assay technologies for molecular diagnostics, applied testing, academic research, and pharmaceuticals. A Betaville report cited rumors of new approaches to a takeover target by Thermo Fisher Scientific for the Dutch company with a dual listing in Frankfurt and New York. Citing people familiar with the matter, Betaville said the US company's offer "may have been pitched as high as" 60 euros a share. Today it is worth 51 euros. A previous attempt by Thermo Fisher to acquire the rival company failed in 2020.
AT PIAZZA AFFARI SALE TIM, INTERPUMP RUNS AGAIN
Telecom Italia's rally continued yesterday: +1,3% at the end after a rise of up to 2,6% due to interest in the entire European telecommunications sector after Vodafone's results above expectations. Investors are repositioning themselves on the title of the Italian company at all-time lows. The prospect of renegotiating the agreement with Dazn also weighs.
Interpump +3,20% after the recent declines leads the recovery of industrialists, including Cnh Industrial, Pirelli and Prysmian. Brembo is also up (+2,5%): the mid-December shareholders' meeting will propose the appointment of Matteo Tiraboschi to the operating chairmanship. Alberto Bombassei will be named honorary president.
ENI, RAISE TESTS AHEAD OF INVESTOR DAY
Eni holds (+0,45%) in view of the investor day on November 22nd from which greater visibility on the R&R IPO is expected. Terna (-1,6%) and Snam (-1,24%) are slowing down the energy sector.
GOOD LUXURY, AEFFE "CHINESE" MAKES BOOM
Tonic luxury in the wake of Paris: Moncler increases by 0,9%, Ferragamo +1,26%.
Brilliant session for Aeffe (+11,60%), in the wake of results above expectations and the forecast of the positive impact of the agreement that Moschino is finalizing to directly manage the stores in China. Intesa Sanpaolo has raised its recommendation to "buy" with a target price of 3,2 euros.
WEAK BANKS, CALTAGIRONE AT 7% IN GENERAL
The banking sector is weak: Banco Bpm, Unicredit and Bper lose more than one percentage point.
Generali loses ground (-2,47%): Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone comes close to 7% with the latest share purchases made between 12 and 15 November.
RACING SAFETY: RACING FORCE +18% AT DEBUT
El.En +3,2%: Intermonte confirmed the outperform recommendation and the target price at 17,8 euros after the third quarter accounts.
In the light of Alkemy (+7,43%): Intesa San Paolo promotes the stock from hold to add, with the target price going from 20 to 22 euros. In Euronext Growth Milan (formerly Aim) the booming debut of Racing Force stands out, one of the world leaders in the sector of safety equipment in motorsports, up by 18%.
