There is no peace yet, but China and the US have so far avoided the outbreak of the trade war. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed the suspension of customs tariffs between the US and China the day after the announcement of an "agreement" between the two countries to reduce the US trade deficit. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He added that Beijing will increase imports of US products, even if it has not committed to a concrete goal as the Trump administration wanted. Beijing has pledged to "significantly" increase its purchases of American goods, though not many other details were offered. " If China does not respect its commitments - warned - Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin - the president can always decide to put the sanctions back into effect" .
An increase in Chinese imports of agricultural products (30-50 billion) and energy is on the table. In return, Beijing may have unblocked the ZTE dossier, the telecommunications giant cut off from the US market due to backroom deals with North Korea and Iran.
The agreement seems very vague but serves to unlock the summit in Singapore between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un set for June 12 and lends a hand to Trump in view of the legislative elections in November in the Republican agricultural states, in fibrillation after the increase in Chinese tariffs on soybeans in response to Washington's sanctions.
The Italy dossier also appears at the top of the international financial agenda, in view of the possible launch of the yellow-green government preceded by many questions and concerns of various kinds that grew, if possible, in the week after the surprise no to the Tav, albeit supported by the League in the electoral campaign, the fuse that could accelerate the rift with France (and with Brussels). It's easy to predict that Italy will be talked about a lot at the weekend at the Eurogroup summit.
The list that will be presented to President Sergio Mattarella should be headed by Private Law professor Giuseppe Conte, Matteo Salvini for Internal Affairs, Luigi Di Maio for Economic Development (and Labour), Giampiero Massolo for Foreign Affairs and Economy or Paolo Savona or Giancarlo Giorgetti.
La Milan stock exchange is about to reopen its doors after a 3% drop, in the worst week since February. No less critical is the situation of fixed income: the yield of Btp, at 2,22%, on the highs since July 2017. The spread shoots up with the Bund, at 173 basis pointsseven months maximum. In one month he's up over 50 basis points. Negative record since 2012 (when the technical government of Mario Monti took office) due to the differential with the Spanish bonus, at 80 basis points.
In particular, it looks at banks, the sector most at risk down 3,2% (-9% from the beginning of the month). The much worse trend than the European average illustrates the growing loss of investor confidence in the "Italian system".
Weight the unknown Monte Paschi, after the sorties of the economic manager of the League Claudio Borghi.
Furthermore, the government contract between the M5s and the Lega worries operators, listed and unlisted, and experts in the debt collection sector, since it provides for the suppression of the rules on action against debtors without the prior authorization of the judiciary.
To characterize the session of Piazza Affari will also be dividend day. A long line of companies listed on the Piazza Affari, including many blue chips (Poste Italiane, Generali, Eni with yields between 5,4 and 5%, but it is at the top Understanding with 6,5% ) will detach the coupon. It has been calculated that the cumulative impact on the FtseMib index will be approximately 1,65%.
It is estimated that for 2018 the sum of dividends that companies listed on Piazza Affari will pay to their shareholders on the 2017 financial results will account for approximately 3,10% of the value of the main index of the Milan Stock Exchange.
To be reported during the week the Enel assembly, scheduled for next Thursday.
Eyes also focused on the traditional general assembly of Confindustria, also to probe the moods of companies in the perspective of an executive with a Grillo-Leghista traction which - according to the indications of the contract approved by the political forces - seems to want to press on the acceleration of public spending and the deficit widening.
Spotlight this morning on the price of oil after the obvious (and suspected) success of outgoing president Maduro in the Venezuelan elections, which will probably not help to relaunch the extraction of crude oil in the country, which remains on the verge of collapse.
On Friday, quotations reached new highs in the last three and a half years at 80,20 US dollars thanks to the assistance offered by Morgan Stanley which, in a report on the energy sector, predicted an oil price of around 90 Usd in the medium term.
They will be announced during the week the minutes of both the last ECB meeting and the last Federal Reserve meeting. Speeches are scheduled for the week by President Jay Powell, William Dudley of New York and Lael Brainard, another member of the central bank.
The US quarterly campaign is drawing to a close. Among the latest to take the field Tiffany's, Target, Ralph Lauren and other consumers.
