The big landslide continues. Under the pressure of new falls in oil prices, Asian stocks suffer heavy losses: Tokyo opened the week at -2,8%, Hong Kong -1,5%. Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific area are at their lowest since 2011. From the highs in June, the Japanese stock market has lost 20%, while the race of capital towards fixed income continues: the Japanese 0,212-year bond yields 0,6%. Shanghai (-0,2%) and Shenzhen (+XNUMX%) are holding up better. The rebound is aided by the central bank's decision to support the exchange rate by imposing new constraints on offshore yuan sales.
Fueling the sales is the plunge in oil, accelerated by the end of the embargo on Iran. Prices have slipped below 28 dollars, to their lowest since 2003. Brent is traded at 27,70 dollars (-4,3% compared to Friday when it had lost about 6%), Wti at 28,99 dollars. Yesterday the Saudi stock market lost 5,4%. The Tehran market instead rose by 0,9%.
CLOSED WALL STREET. IN FRANKFURT EXPECTED -3% IN START
Today, after the new rain of sales on Friday, Wall Street will be at a standstill for Martin Luther King Day. A pause which, in theory, could allow the lists to absorb the latest, tremendous KO inflicted on the world stock exchanges, which they have been experiencing since the beginning year losses of 5 trillion dollars, more than twice the Italian GDP.
But there is no breathing space at the start of a crucial week for the price lists, under pressure after the sales at the beginning of the year (the Ftse Mib index -10,38% in Milan). Indeed, futures on European stock exchanges herald a stormy start in Paris (-2,4%) and Frankfurt (-3,1%). Only in London is a slight rebound expected at the opening.
THE MARKETS ARE WAITING FOR DRAGONS. AND THEY LOOK AT CHINESE GDP
In the meantime, the markets are waiting with increasing anxiety for the 2015 Chinese GDP statistics, due tomorrow morning. Chinese premier Li Kequiang said he expects growth of around 7%. A positive signal has arrived from the real estate market: house prices in large cities grew by 1,6% in December.
The vertical fall of crude oil will be the stone guest of next Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank's executives, preceded tomorrow by data on inflation in the euro area. No rate decisions are expected, but Mario Draghi's words will not be less important for this: the markets are eager to understand how the ECB will move if the recovery continues to be weak.
In the US, meanwhile, the central bank risks having to review its monetary policy just 50 days after the first rate hike. The first estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter comes from the Atlanta Fed: only +0,6%, a marked slowdown compared to the previous figure (+2%).
This is the setting in which the Davos meeting is about to open, an opportunity for 2.500 VIPs from world politics and finance to meet. At the center of the debate will be the future of China, but also the "black swan" of the beginning of the year, i.e. the steep fall of the markets. "We probably still have to test the lows," said Lawrence Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, on Friday evening.
MILAN DOWN BY 10,3%. ONLY SNAM IS SAVED
Thus the mood at the end of a terrible week in which the S&P slipped to 1880, the lowest since the beginning of August. The script was repeated in almost the same way at every latitude. The sectors that suffered the worst losses in Europe since the beginning of the year were Raw Materials (-18%), Oil (-11%) and Banks (-13%). Automotive has been added to the blacklist in recent sessions, down 2016% in 17.
In Milan, the index fell by 3,4% in the last five sessions and the performance since the beginning of the year is -10,3%. The worst blue chips in 2016 were Monte Paschi (-27%), Exor (-24%), Fiat Chrysler (-22%), Azimut (-18%), Tenaris (-17%) and Yoox (-16% ).
The only stock in positive territory was Snam (+2,5%). The damages were limited by Moncler (-3%), Ferragamo (-4%), Campari (-5%), Enel (-6%) and Banca Popolare di Milano (-6,2%).
BPM, TODAY THE REPORT ON THE WEDDING WITH BANCO POPOLARE
Spotlight on the management committee of Popolare di Milano. On the agenda there is only ordinary administration but it is probable that CEO Giuseppe Castagna will take the opportunity to update the directors on the progress of the negotiations with Banco Popolare. The CEO of the Veronese bank, Pierfrancesco Saviotti, raised the curtain on the possible merger: "We're not there yet - he told Reuters - but I am convinced that we can get there".
"We are ahead, but it takes time", replied Castagna, who should become the CEO of the new group, while Saviotti should lead the Executive Committee under the presidency of Carlo Fratta Pasini. According to the project, the definitive merger will require a period of between 3 and 6 years. Less credit is received by the Ubi hypothesis. Exane confirmed the Outperform judgment with a recommendation of 0,96 euros.
TELECOM, CONVERSION BACK TO TOPIC
Profits were taken on Telecom Italia on Friday, notwithstanding Vivendi continued to buy stocks at the turn of the Christmas holidays and in spite of a Mediobanca study which suggests buying shares in the group led by Marco Patuano.
After presenting itself at the shareholders' meeting last December 15 with about 20,5% of the shares, the media giant chaired by Vincent Bolloré took over – with purchases also outside the market – a further 0,86% of Telecom, spending 134 million and thus rising to 21,36%. At this point Vivendi can reach up to 24,9% without being forced to launch a takeover bid, otherwise, as already announced a month ago, the French group can promote a new savings share conversion plan, which by itself implies a capital dilution of approximately 30%.
MARCHIONNE: THE PROBLEM IS NOT FCA, BUT THE SECTOR
“The problem is not FCA's valuation, but that of the entire sector. We have created a lethal cocktail of many elements: connectivity, autonomous driving, emissions. That's why there's so much uncertainty." Thus in Detroit Sergio Marchionne after the black week of the four wheels, marked by collapse of Renault and by sales of Fiat Chrysler, under fire for accusations by a Chicago dealer about alleged tricks to inflate sales, a hypothesis that the market considers with the benefit of inventory.
"We tend to believe the company - notes for example Mediobanca Securities - because it would be very stupid behavior to force dealers to give incorrect information on sales, as it does not increase the number of sales but at most improves the monthly growth of registrations" .
Meanwhile, Fiat Chrysler's diesels will also be scrutinized by the French authorities this day.
