THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS HOLDING UP, BUT WALL STREET IS BREAKING DOWN. BANKS AND LUXURY, RECOVERY TESTS AT PIAZZA AFFARI
The Dragon, once again, silenced the Bear. The Chinese PMI flash index for September closed at 50,5 points, up on August (50,2) and above all above the stagnation threshold (50). The fears that had conditioned the session at the beginning of the week are thus erased. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rises +0,6%, Hong Kong stabilizes +0,13%.
Tokyo, on the other hand, is down, conditioned by the closure of the US stock exchanges. The Chinese data had an immediate impact on currencies and commodities. No effect, for now, from the US air force attacks on the skies of Syria against the ISIS militias. Dollar settling on record values. The cross with the euro is 1,2825. Modest recovery also for crude oil, after yesterday's sharp decline: Brent, which slipped to 96,60, rebounds to 97,16 dollars. In Europe, the Stoxx index of oil companies loses 0,5%.
OBAMA SQUEEZES TAX INVERSION
Wall Street, after Friday's record, closed in significant decline: the fall in new home purchases, down for the third consecutive month, weighed heavily. The Dow Jones index fell by 0,62%, the S&P 500 returned below 2 thousand, down by 0,73% and the Nasdaq by 1,14%.
Alibaba also falls -4% after its record debut. On positive ground Apple: over 10 million iPhone 6s were sold over the weekend. It was the day of German multinationals. After the blitz by Siemens (7,6 billion dollars for the purchase of Dresser, a specialist in shale gas) yesterday it was the turn of Merck which acquired the pharma company Sigma Aldrich for 17,6 billion.
From now on it will be more difficult for a US company to resort to tax inversion (ie the purchase of a foreign company to then assume its tax nationality) to escape the US taxman. President Obama yesterday issued a decree that introduces numerous new restrictions on the use of the capital of multinationals parked across the border. In 2014, 13 US multinationals bought "prey" abroad and then changed their tax passport.
CONFIDENCE FALLS IN EUROPE. MILAN RAIL LIGHT
This morning the attention of the European Stock Exchanges will be concentrated on the SMEs of the main European economies. For the stock exchanges, meanwhile, yesterday was a day of passion: consumer confidence in the Old Continent fell to its lowest level since February. The Madrid Stock Exchange falls by 0,4%, Paris -0,4%, Frankfurt -0,5%.
In Europe all sectors fell and in particular raw materials (Stoxx -2,5%) and automotive (-1,6%). The Chinese syndrome has also hit Piazza Affari: the Ftse Mib index closed with a loss of 1,43% at 20.673 points. All sectors are down, especially luxury and banks. New sharp decline in industrial production in August.
Calm situation on the government bond market: the 10-year BTP is traded at a yield of 2,36% (2,37% on Friday). Spread unchanged at 134.
DRAGONS ALERT: RECOVERY LOSES IMPULSE
Draghi acknowledged the loss of speed of the European recovery and the risks on the inflationary scenario, but defended the work of the central bank and once again urged governments to act. In particular, he argued that the modest access to the TLTRO in September had been budgeted for. The ECB president defended the "simple and transparent" ABS purchase program, including mezzanines.
Among the most interesting points of the speech before the deputies of the European Parliament, the affirmation that the central bank is starting a transition from a system based on the passive supply of credit to one based on a more active and controlled management of its balance sheet. It is an indirect confirmation that the institute is on the way to quantitative easing, the unconventional tool that offers greater control over a central bank's balance sheet.
ENI DIVIDEND HOLDS BACK THE FTSE MIB INDEX
Eni's coupon detachment also weighed on the index (-3,26% to 18,38 euros, or -0,3% if we consider the dividend), equal to 0,56 euros per share. In Europe, the Stoxx index of oil companies lost 0,5%. Stm -4,14% to 5,91 euros also detached a dividend of 0,10 dollars per share.
Enel contained the market declines to 0,34%: according to analysts, the subsidiary Endesa, in addition to the 8,2 billion in dividends relating to the Enersis deal, could distribute a second extraordinary dividend of up to 7,5 billion euros.
BARCLAYS AND MEDIOBANCA PROMOTE FIAT
Fiat falls by 0,51% despite the double promotion. Mediobanca Securities raised its rating from neutral to outperform, with the target price rising from 8,1 to 10,5 euro. Among the reasons for the new judgment "the upward revision of the estimates on Ferrari and the idea that a capital increase will be appreciated by the market".
Barclays instead compared the plans of Fiat-Chrysler and Peugeot: the broker confirmed the underweight rating and the target price of 9 euros for the French car manufacturer and instead promoted it to overweight and the target price of 9 euros for the Italian group -American. Exor has also been promoted from neutral to outperform, with a target price set at 35 euros.
Analysts, on the other hand, reduced their opinion on Cnh Industrial from outperform to neutral with a target price of 7,3 euros. The company yesterday launched a 700 million seven-year bond and announced the supply of an engine to the Zyle Daewoo bus.
LUXURY UNDER FIRE: TOD'S FALLS, SALES ON MONCLER
Shy rebound this morning in Hong Kong for the title Prada +0,52% after the collapse of 6,5% at the beginning of the week which brought the stock back to 2012 levels. The landslide had an immediate echo on the stocks of the sector in Piazza Affari. The slowdown in the Chinese economy, the main customer of many Made in Italy brands, is added to the sharp contraction of the Russian market.
Tod’s -4%. Yesterday Tod's Investor Day was held in Milan in which the chairman and managing director, Diego Della Valle, acknowledged that the moment is not favorable for the company's business, even if not dramatic. Tod's stock is down 31% year-to-date. In 12 months, from the maximum of 14 August 2013 (144 euros).
In reverse Salvatore Ferragamo gained 0,04% to €22,26 after CEO Michele Norsa said 2014 will be another year of growth in terms of revenues and profitability. Finally, under pressure the title Moncler -0,77% after Eurazeo's lock-up on its 23% stake in the capital expired last Saturday. Bad Luxottica -0,92%.
BANKS, THE BIG RESIST. TODAY UNICREDIT BOD
Among the banks, the main ones hold: Understanding -0,3%. Unicredit it lost 0,6%. Today the board of directors Federico Ghizzoni could take stock of the negotiations for the sale of 50% of Pioneer during the course of the board meeting: a 100% valuation is expected for the ndita of 50% of the asset management company should be finalized by the end of the year, for a valuation of 2,5-2,7 billion euro. Jp Morgan has confirmed the action among the top picks to bet on among European banks.
Heavy losses Banco Popolare -3,8% Mediobanca -2,9% Popular Emilia -2,7% Ubi -2,3%. It also moves back MontePaschi -3,2%. Stay positive Pop Bank.Milano which earns 0,7%.
MEDIUM CAP, TREVI BUILDS UP CONTRACTS
Out of the main basket Cattolica Insurance posts a timid rebound (+0,8%) after the latest losses recorded in the wake of the announcement of a capital increase of 500 million.
Trevi it rose by 4,39% to 5,95 euros after being awarded important contracts in various countries for a total amount of 135 million dollars. The group then signed a framework agreement for the construction by 2022 of a port complex in Africa worth about 380 million dollars.
