US rates, for now, are not increasing. But an increase by the end of the year is possible, indeed probable. This is the message arriving from the Federal Reserve at the end of one of the most contested meetings in recent years: three out of ten governors (Esther George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren) voted against the decision, justified in part by the slowdown in GDP (+ 1,8% against the previous forecast of +2%), but not from the trend in employment, now close to full employment. The forecasts have thus been respected: the Fed will move only after the elections of 8 November.
The choices of the Bank of Japan were also in line with expectations: the choice of negative short-term rates and the objective of zero rates for ten-year securities confirmed. The strategy of "quantitative and qualitative easing" will aim to support yields on very long-term bonds, to the benefit of pension funds and bank balance sheets.
Today the parade of central banks that began with last week's directorate of the ECB ends: on the catwalk the central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Indonesia. The day will be closed by the meetings of Norway (a possible cut to discourage the inflow of capital to the crown) and Turkey.
NEW RECORD FOR NASDAQ, EMERGING IN FLIGHT
Markets reacted to the news from Washington and Tokyo with a strong rally. The Nasdaq (+1,03%) scored a new high at 5.295,18. The Dow Jones (+0,9%) and the S&P 500 index also rose (+1,03%, +5,8% from the beginning of the year).
They celebrate emerging markets. Currencies recovered positions, from the South African rand (+2,2%) to the Brazilian real and the ruble (+1,2 and +1,1% respectively). The MSCI Emerging Markets stock index rose 1,1%. The debt market is also growing: 10-year Brazilian bonds in dollars fall to 4,53% (-22 points).
Tokyo closed this morning for holidays, yesterday in sharp rise after the decisions of the Bank of Japan: the yen is slightly down against the dollar. The response of Asia was entrusted to the Chinese markets: Hong Kong rose (+1,6%), followed closely by Shanghai (+1,1%).
Oil is doing well: Brent at 47,52 dollars (+1,1%), a similar change for Wti, above 45 dollars. Top of the module US crude inventories fell, surprisingly, to a 31-week low. On Wall Street, the Energy sector recorded the most robust increase on the list (+2,1%). At Piazza Affari Eni +0,3%, Saipem +1,3%.
SUPER DEPARTURE IN SIGHT FOR EUROPE. MILAN +0,88%
Futures predict a decisive start also for European lists, yesterday already pushed up by news arriving from Tokyo: the new guidelines of the Japanese Central Bank could be imported into Europe by the ECB. The Ftse Mib index of Piazza Affari rose yesterday by 0,88% to 16.350 points, by a hair's breadth ahead of Madrid (+0,87%). Followed by Paris (+0,5%), Frankfurt (+0,39%) and London (+0,06%).
The OECD has revised its estimate for Italian GDP downwards to 0,8% for both 2016 and 2017. Compared to the June framework, this is a revision of two tenths for this year and even six for the 2017.
The BTP closed yesterday at 1,29%. The performance of Spanish paper over Italian paper was confirmed: the spread between the respective ten-year maturities widened to 29 basis points, the highest since the end of 2014.
Today, with the markets closed, the Treasury will communicate the details of the Btpei and Ctz auctions on Tuesday 27, the first appointment of the month-end placement session. Intesa Sanpaolo's forecasts indicate an offer of up to 2,5 billion Ctz and up to 1,5 of indexed ones.
APPLE BETS MC LAREN, NEW BUY BACK FOR MICROSOFT
Beyond the decisions of the central banks, there was no shortage of reasons for interest on Wall Street. The rumor relaunched by the Financial Times of a negotiation for the purchase of McLaren (which it denied) by Apple, for a value of 1-1,5 billion pounds, did not move the Apple stock, unchanged. However, the intention of the US group to forcefully enter the car market is confirmed.
The Microsoft star shines (+1,67%). The company approved an additional $40 billion share buyback plan, a program that complements the one already underway, also worth $40 billion. The board also increased the quarterly dividend by 8% to 39 cents. The company had $113 billion on hand at the end of June.
Fedex boom (+5,8%) after the quarterly accounts. The shipping company revised up its earnings estimates for the current fiscal year to $11,85-12,35 per share (versus its previous target of $11,75-12,25). The spread of online purchases makes the parcel delivery service to the buyers' homes increasingly relevant.
THE POPULAR FLY. UNICREDIT, THE EXAMINATION OF THE PLAN BEGINS
A day of recovery for the European banks, Italian and Spanish in the lead. The index of Italian banks rose by more than 2%, substantially in line with the European one.
The former Popolari are up sharply. Leading the race Ubi Banca (+5,4%): the CEO Victor Massiah has announced the closure of the strategic plan by the spring of 2017, a project which also envisages the completion of the single bank, the union of all the different institutions of the group. Followed by Bper (+4,7%), Banca Popolare di Milano (+4,6%) and Banco Popolare (+3,6%).
Unicredit is also in evidence (+3,6%). Yesterday HSBC signaled the Italian bank (buy, target of 2,83 euros) together with Barclays, Erste and Ubs among the preferred stocks of the sector which, according to the report, was penalized too much. Today the board of directors meeting in Munich will begin examining the strategic plan. On the Pioneer front, according to rumors, the most popular offers are those presented by Generali, by the consortium led by Poste Italiane and by the French group Amundi.
Monte Paschi is also coming to the rescue (+2,5%) recovering from the historic lows of the eve. CEO Marco Morelli wants to present the industrial plan as soon as possible and conclude the capital increase regardless of the referendum. The capital strengthening of 5 billion could contemplate: the conversion of subordinated bonds into shares (up to 2 billion), a capital increase without option rights (for 2 billion) and the arrival of a stable shareholder (with 1 billion). Su also speaks of the intervention of new shareholders: none other than the People's Bank of China, the central bank of Beijing which entered Siena last year with 2%. The institute has already been contacted by JP Morgan.
Intesa also did well (+1,39%): the chairman Gian Maria Gros-Pietro said that the Bank does not despair of being able to fully recover the bridge loan disbursed to the four rescued banks, although, he added, it seems that potential buyers have disappointing numbers on the table.
Creval (+2,6%) has called the shareholders' meeting for 28-29 October whose agenda includes the conversion into a joint-stock company and the grouping of one new share for every 10 old ones.
M&A PUSH PRYSMIAN TO THE MAXIMUM
Prysmian (+3,3%) climbs to a new all-time high of 22,95 on the wave of consolidation of the sector in Europe. ABB has announced the sale of its high voltage cables division to the Swedish NKT Cables, value of the transaction 836 million euros at EV level. Morgan Stanley writes in a note that the consolidation underway in the sector has positive implications for the Milanese company and for the French Nexans, the two European leaders in cables. The broker expects other similar operations, with repercussions on the ability of companies to keep the average prices of their products high.
Contrasted day for the Agnelli galaxy. Up Exor (+2,8%) and Ferrari (+3,13%) ahead of Cnh Industrial (+1,5%). Weak Fiat Chrysler (-0,78%), which was affected by the possible bankruptcy of Takata, the company of defective airbags.
Strong recovery Telecom Italia (+2,6%) . Yesterday the CEO of Vivendi, Arnaud de Puyfontaine, limited himself to saying "never say never" about the conflict with Mediaset.
Stm gained 1,05% to 7,19 euros. UBS raised its target price on the stock from 6,2 to 6,7 euros, confirming the neutral recommendation.
JUVE ALSO HAS THE RECORD OF PROFIT
Sales on Rcs Mediagroup (-2,37%). Yesterday judicial sources anticipated that the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office intends to ask for the filing of the investigation into the takeover bid launched by Cairo Communications: to date, no crime hypotheses have emerged nor any suspects.
Juventus up (+0,71%) after the publication of the results for the 2015-2016 financial year: the company's profit rose by 78,3% to 4,1 million euros. A positive result is also expected for the current financial year.
