Lo momentum of the global economy is slowly slowing down, from 3,2% recorded last year to 2,6% forecast for the end of 2019, leaving room for the first year-on-year recovery in corporate failures in advanced markets since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Uncertainty in trade policy is a major cause of lower business confidence and reduced investment growth, with increased financial risks. As a result, global corporate insolvencies are forecast to rise by 2,8% this year.
In this scenario, the overall performance of Italian exports (submitted by SACE) is equal to 3,2%, a result that cannot be taken for granted in the light of what has just been reported. At the sector level, about half of the contribution to growth came from pharmaceuticals, food and leather goods. In EU countries, in July sales increased above all in Poland (where, however, overall for the seven months, the figure remains negative), the Czech Republic and Spain, while flows to France are still positive (+2,8 .19% between January-July). Exports to the non-EU area benefit from the positive dynamics in Japan (+14,5%), Switzerland (+9,2%) and the USA (+XNUMX%). In Russia, sales are stable, while they decrease in the Middle East.
La downturn in Made in Italy exports to China (-1,5%) was affected by the negative performance in the transport equipment and metals segments; on the other hand, clothing, pharmaceuticals and furnishings went against the trend. These last two sectors, together with metallurgy and leather goods, drive sales to India. In ASEAN countries, the main contribution to growth came from mechanical engineering, means of transport, food and beverages.
I consumer goods represent the best category in terms of exports (+10,4%), thanks in particular to not durable (+12,2%) which include pharmaceuticals (+28%) and food and beverages (+7,9%). On the other hand, the increase in exports of was more moderate durable consumer goods (+2,3%). Overseas sales of intermediate goods increased by 2,1%, those of capital goods decreased slightly (-0,4%) and were affected by the negative economic situation in the automotive sector.
Sales in the sector fashion they are progressing at a good pace in France, but are mainly supported by non-EU countries, such as Japan, Switzerland and the USA. The latter, together with Poland and Russia, instead fueled metal sales. The negative trend of the sector of motor vehicles it is rather generalized: among the few exceptions Poland, the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom, the ASEAN and Mercosur markets.
Going into 2020, monetary policy easing in developed markets, especially the US, should provide some support to economic growth and business activity. The growth of world GDP it should accelerate slightly to 2,7% (still down from last year), but this will depend on progress in resolving trade disputes. Without a resolution of the tensions in sight, investments will remain contained: analysts are therefore forecasting a slight increase in insolvencies, by 1,2% globally. In Italy bankruptcies decreased by 7% in 2018, despite a slight recession in the second half of the year: here then some delayed effects of last year's recession cannot be excluded, starting to increase the number of company bankruptcies. From this point of view, a 4% increase in bankruptcies is expected in Italy, while the economic activity of the Bel Paese will stagnate in 2019 (+0,1% forecast).
