The descent of oil does not stop. Crude closes the week in Asia at prices not seen since 2009: Brent falls below 63 dollars, crude oil below 60. The barrel has lost almost 9% this week, about 45% since June, when the price of the barrel moved around 107 dollars.
The weakness of the oil sector will be at the center of the next meeting of the Fed: the drop in inflation can stave off the increase in US rates. But, judging by the results of yesterday's Tltro auction, it is not enough to wake up the European economy.
The market bulletin reports: Tokyo is starting a cautious closure with increases of less than a percentage point, thanks to the recovery of the dollar. During the week the Nikkei lost about 3%. Early elections will be held on Sunday 14th. Modest movements also in Hong Kong and Shanghai awaiting consumption data.
The recovery in retail sales (+4,4% in November, despite the disappointment of Black Friday) instead restored good spirits to Wall Street: the Dow Jones index advanced by 0,36%, the S&P 500 by around 0,6, 0,52% and the Nasdaq by XNUMX%.
The mood of operators in the Old Continent is much less brilliant. After three consecutive bearish sessions, the European stock exchanges have missed the appointment with the rebound. The Paris Stock Exchange closed in parity, while London recorded a drop of 0,3%. Only Frankfurt +0,6% and Madrid +0,24% rose. Piazza Affari is also close to parity: Ftse Mib index -0,09% at 19.201.
In the evening, the euro lost ground against the dollar, which rose to 1,239, from 1,244 at the previous close. The recovery of oil stocks failed (Stoxx of the sector -0,3%). Eni it fell by 0,6%, to be noted the promotion of Bank of America to Buy (target price at 19 euro). Saipem rose by 0,3%. HSBC has cut the company's estimates up to 2017 and the target price from 14 to 10 euros. In the last month the stock has lost 32%.
ATHENS IS ALREADY IN DEFAULT
The mortgage of the Greek crisis weighs on the Old Continent. The Athens Stock Exchange has fallen by 7%: in the last three sessions it has collapsed by 20%. The 9-year Greek government bond saw the yield rise to 8,5% from 10%. Meanwhile, the yield on the three-year bond has surpassed the XNUMX% barrier. A bad sign: when the yields on short-term bonds exceed those on medium-term bonds, it means that the markets begin to evaluate the concrete possibility of a default.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras declared in Parliament that, if by the end of the year the government candidate is not elected to the Presidency of the Republic, the country will go to early elections in a climate of very heavy uncertainty, with the strong risk that winning the elections and the left of Syriza determined to call into question the agreements with Brussels.
The Greek syndrome is thus once again affecting the sovereign debt market. The Italian 2,05-year BTP remained stable with a yield of 138%. The spread between the Btp and the Bund rose to 0,662 bp at the close, thanks to the performance of the German bund, which dropped during the day to an all-time low of XNUMX%.
TLTRO
The appointment with the European QE is approaching, at least judging by the trend of the other "unconventional" measures already launched by the ECB. The second appointment with Tltro loans to the banking system has in fact recorded a half "flop". The amount requested by 306 European institutions was 129,8 billion, just under double the September operation, conditioned by the AQR. But the total of the two auctions, 212,4 billion (moreover partly intended to settle the loans of the first Ltro of 2011) is much lower than the 400 billion made available by Frankfurt. Among the banks, MontePaschi + 0,5% Unicredit + 0,9% Understanding + 0,4%.
FCA
Fiat Chrysler it closed down by 6,27% at 9,19 euros, after having scored a low of 9,0350 euros in the morning. It is the fourth consecutive decline. Since Monday's peak of 11,22 euros, the stock has lost 20%. The group announced the pricing of the offer of 87 million ordinary shares consisting of treasury shares held by FCA and additional shares deriving from the exercise of the right of withdrawal.
The shares will be sold in America at the offer price of 11 dollars each, equal to 8,84 euros per share at this morning's euro-dollar exchange rate. On Wall Street last night FCA shares closed down 9,5% at 11,47 dollars. The offering banks have an option to purchase up to an additional 13 million ordinary shares from FCA. Exor, the Agnelli holding that controls FCA, fell by 2,5%. Among industry stocks, Finmeccanica fell by 1%, StM it lost 0,6% after UBS cut its rating to Sell from Neutral. Enel rose by 0,2%, Snam +0,7%. positive GTech + 0,2%.
TELECOM
Telecom Italia closes with a rise of 2,2% to 0,9440 euro. In the initial stages of this morning, the share went up to 0,9770 euros. To attract the purchases is the indiscretion of Bloomberg last night which refers to the arrival of an offer on Tim Brasil promoted by the trio of competitors Oi-Claro-Vivo.
The consortium would be ready to value 100% of Tim Brasil at around 7,5 times the Ev/Ebitda, equal to 12 billion euros, or 8 billion for the stake held by Telecom Italia (67%). In the past, the management of the Italian group has repeatedly said that it is only willing to start negotiations in the event of an offer for Tim Brasil of at least 9 billion euros for 67% of Tim.
This morning, Il Sole24Ore writes that the sale of Portugal Telecom to Altice for 7,4 billion euros (of which 500 million in earn-out) is at risk: the Portuguese shareholders of the holding company PT Sgps, a shareholder of Oi, could veto blow up the operation. If it doesn't sell its European assets, Oi doesn't have the resources to maneuver in the domestic market.
Two days ago, the OI board of directors approved the sale of PT Portugal, plus some assets in Hungary, to Altice: the assets are valued at 7,4 billion euros at Ev level, plus there are 500 million euros of earn-out (additional outlay upon achievement of certain conditions). The operation does not include the activities in Africa and in Oi Timor.
"With this step, Oi continues its strategy of strengthening its financial capacity in view of its intention to play a leading role in the consolidation of the Brazilian market," the statement reads. This morning Credit Suisse raised the target price on the stock to 1 euro with a Neutral rating.
DRUMS
Tamburi has little movement at 2,54 euros. An agreement was signed today between Fimag (Finanziaria Mariano Guzzini SpA), the controlling holding company of all the equity investments in the Guzzini industrial group, and TIPO (a company owned by Tamburi Investment Partners), for TIPO's entry into the capital of iGuzzini Illuminazione SpA
iGuzzini is the leading Italian company in the design and production of high quality lighting fixtures and systems and one of the leading European companies in the architectural sector with 20 international branches and a production unit in China. iGuzzini is present in 64 countries and in 2013 achieved a turnover of 199 million euros. 62,3% of turnover derives from products placed on the market in the last five years.
The affirmation of the LED – which is already used today in most of iGuzzini's production – will replace all other light sources in a few years. TIPO will acquire a 14,29% stake; a very significant part of the investment will be made through a capital increase aimed at accelerating the development of the iGuzzini group both in Italy and abroad, where approximately 75% of the turnover is already exported.
For Giovanni Tamburi, president of TIPO: "The entry into the capital of one of the most beautiful and important companies in the world in the sector of design, high technology for architecture and the most advanced lighting solutions is a source of great pride for us and that is a great honor in itself. All the more reason given that our intervention, alongside a family of entrepreneurs who have always been highly successful, is aimed at further increasing development at an international level in a sector where Italy is universally recognized as a leader”.
