Il Greek Parliament approved the budget law for 2013, a necessary condition for the new 31,2 billion euro tranche of aid to finally be released this week. But the road remains uphill, also because the ECB has reduced the debt margin allowed in Athens from 17 to 12 billion. To avoid being short of liquidity, the government of Athens will issue short-term government bonds (3-6 months) tomorrow to repay the 4,1 billion bonds maturing on November 16 and avoid default.
Secondo Der Spiegel online, before widening the purse strings, the EU and the IMF would like the Samaras government to list the names of 2 civil servants to be sent home by the end of 2012.
ASIA
Tokyo stock week opens down -0,56% ; Hong Kong salt +0,24%. Shanghai also rose +0,1% driven by shipping stocks and by the news that the authorities are about to widen the possibility for foreign capital to invest in the list. The trend of the markets is amply explained by the divergent data of the two economies.
There was great concern about the Japanese GDP data. The fears were justified: in the third quarter, Tokyo's GDP fell by 0,9%, in the wake of a sharp drop in exports: -5%. On an annual basis, the contraction is 3,5%. The fall is linked to the dispute with China and to the slowdown in European consumption, not sufficiently contrasted by the increase in public spending on the domestic front.
On the contrary, Beijing's exports are growing again: +11,4% in October compared to a year ago against +2,4% for imports. October's trade balance surplus is $32 billion, the highest in four years.
“We managed to keep the situation under control, as shown by the macro data. But let's not delude ourselves: the economic crisis is far from being under control. And we have to live with it." This, in summary, is the analysis that the governor of the Chinese central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan illustrated on Sunday, without any triumphalism due to the improving data on exports and inflation, to the 2268 delegates to the Congress of the Communist Party. Zhou, who has been at the head of the institute for ten years, could leave his post in a few months.
AMERICA
Election week closes in the red, the worst since the beginning of June. The S&P 500 index fell by 2,4%, the Dow Jones by 2,1%. However, since the beginning of 2012, the indices are still positive: S&P +9,7, Dow Jones +4,9%.
The negotiation to avoid the fiscal cliff gets underway today in Washington. The agreement seems difficult, but possible, after the intervention. The compromise could include the cancellation of deductions and tax breaks for the wealthiest taxpayers. In exchange, the president could renounce to adjust the rates.
By the end of the year, the US Congress will have to approve a 600 billion dollar public deficit reduction plan and if it does so, public spending cuts and new taxes for a similar amount will automatically be triggered.
Wall Street will be reassured by the postponement of the adoption of the capital standards envisaged by Basel 3 for American banks. A postponement that will allow the Boig of the finance not to reduce the activity in derivatives.
EUROPA
The negotiations on the EU budget for 2013 failed even before they started. In fact, on Friday night, the representatives of the United Kingdom and other northern states contested the obligation to settle the 2012 accounts which complain of a hole of 9,8 billion euros.
Today, together with the budget, the Greece case will be at the center of the Eurogroup meeting. On Friday, the increase in the "fever" is promptly signaled by the return below "zero" of bond yields up to 2 years of: Switzerland, Denmark, Germany, Finland and Austria. A month ago, only Switzerland remained below zero rates.
ITALY
For Piazza Affari, the balance for the week is a decrease of 3,7% which resets the performance since the beginning of the year (+0,6%). The 10-year BTP today it suffered with the yield returning to 5,00% for most of the day, but in the end it fell back to 4,96% with a spread at quota362 (-2 basis points). The Treasury will offer three-year bonds at auction on Wednesday.
Third quarter results will be announced today pirelli, particularly anticipated because some investment houses assume a slight decrease in year-end guidance. Analysts in particular forecast revenues &.207 million against 6,245) and slightly worsening debt (1,216 against 1,1 billion) compared to management's indications, while Ebitda is in the lower part of the expected range.
Since the beginning of the year, Pirelli has risen on the Stock Exchange by 30%, outperforming the Stoxx index of the European auto sector which gained 19%. But the negotiations of Marco Tronchetti Provera are taking the stage to replace the Malacalza family in the upper levels of the chain of control of the group. The dossier is entrusted to Gerardo Braggiotti who continues talks with the Clessidra fund, Andrea Bonomi's Investindustrial, the financier Albert Frère, the private companies of Jp Morgan and the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Singapore.
In the meantime, an agreement was defined for the rescue of Prelios: Feidos, a coalition headed by Massimo Caputi will lead the operation which foresees a massive capital increase of 185 million: in part, or 100 million, in cash, partly through the conversion of debts into capital by bank creditors. The plan will go before the board tomorrow, along with approval of the quarterly accounts.
In Piazza Affari the strongest losses were in financial stocks. Among the banksUnicredit fell by 0,99%, Understanding -0,6% Mediobanca-2,6% Banco Popular -2,2% MontePaschi -1,8%.
During the week there will be a close comparison between the failed spouses. Tomorrow, in fact, the board meetings of both Intesa and Unicredit will be held. Both institutions then set the conference call with the analysts for Wednesday afternoon: Intesa at 14 pm, Unicredit 90 minutes later,
It fell among asset management securities Mediolanum -4,9%, after the CEO Ennio Doris said that the 2012 dividend will be modest. Generali fell by 1,2%: the third quarter results were in line with expectations. The new business plan will be presented on January 14, said the CEO. Mario Greco.
Brilliant sitting for Telecom Italy, up 3,6% after the announcement of third quarter results: profit was slightly better than analysts' expectations, net debt much better. But what ignites the market's attention is the rumor of interest from Naguib Sawiris. The Egyptian entrepreneur would be ready to take over a substantial stake in the former incumbent, by taking over Telefonica's stake in Telco or with an offer to the other shareholders.
leap of Finmeccanica, up 6,3% after the results that confirm the company's return to profit. Furthermore, the subsidiary Ansaldo Breda was awarded a 300 million dollar contract for the construction of the subway in Miami. Positive too Ansaldo StS + 0,8%.
Lottomatica rose by 0,7%, Mediaset + 1,3% Parmalat +1,4%, also positive Saipem + 1,9%. Rest it fell by 2,7%: after the results announced yesterday, Cheuvreux cut the rating to underperform from outperform and confirmed the target price at 8,5 euros. Exane has cut the target price to 8,2 euros and reiterates its neutral opinion.
