Minister Padoan, on the one hand, sent a stern warning to those who believe that the increase in public spending, breaking through the 3% deficit limit, will lead to a recovery of the economy and employment, but on the other, he reminded the EU that Italy is making important reforms because it has understood that they are in its own interest and therefore there is no need for further pressure. So are we on the right track?
“I believe that Renzi, unlike many other local politicians, wants to do the right things and pushes for quick approval. However, the oppositions are formidable in Parliament and outside.” Giampaolo Galli, PD deputy, economist and former director general of Confindustria and ABI, looks with some concern at the lengthiness of the Italian legislative process. In a certain sense – he says – I understand that Europe is looking at us with some concern since we have not managed to complete many reforms so far. In some cases we are well advanced, but the oppositions of the right and left are so aggressive, even without having concrete and practicable alternative proposals, as to make many external observers fear that Italians are not well aware of the real causes of the long crisis we are experiencing, and we don't have the grit necessary to try to regain a front row seat on the world stage".
Moreover, a general strike was proclaimed by the CGIL and UIL against the stability law and the Jobs Act. In fact, in the squares, as well as in the anti-euro referendum, the alternative proposal is to restructure our debt (as requested by the Greek left) or to leave the Euro in order to be able to print "all the lire we need" as Grillo said.
“This is the true paradox of oppositions. With those systems, their fight against austerity would in a short time lead to an even more ferocious austerity than the current one from which, moreover, we are emerging even if with exasperating slowness (equal to the one with which we are carrying out the reforms). Unlike Greece whose debt is over 70% in the hands of public international institutions, our debt is held by Italian banks and savers and only 30% by private international financial institutions. Restructuring debt means loading the losses on banks or private savers who would see their assets cut by at least 40-50%. But it's not over. To avoid the bankruptcy of the banks, the State should allocate part of the proceeds from the consolidation to recapitalize them. So all the weight would fall on savers and manufacturing companies with what effect on consumption and production can be imagined. Since it will no longer be possible to borrow money from the market, austerity will be ferocious, killing internal demand and destroying companies”.
It often happens in politics that programs, once implemented, have effects that are different or contrary to those imagined.
“There is only one sentence that I agree with in Alberto Bagnai's book which calls for an exit from the Euro, and it is the one that says that 'the voters will have no mercy for the politicians who decide to exit the Euro'. Because such a decision would bring infinite mourning to the people who would like to help. But all this turmoil brings negative consequences. In fact, it is not possible to restore investor confidence in our country, precisely because there is too much talk, and inappropriately, of debt restructuring or exit from the Euro. You can criticize and press the government, but we need some responsibility in the alternative proposals!"
With regard to alternative proposals, Uil has made some calculations on the basis of which the relief for new permanent employees is higher than the cost of dismissal. So it would be better for the company to fire after a year and hire another worker.
“This is real bestiality. Mere propaganda. The decontribution is a lower cost that serves to encourage companies to hire with permanent contracts. If one hires it is not that he then thinks of firing after a year. In the first place, the rule only applies to 2015. And then the two quantities (contributions saved and severance pay) are not comparable. If someone fires it means that things didn't go well, or that the worker didn't show himself up to the tasks entrusted to him."
However, many accuse the Government's maneuver of not having been courageous enough in terms of spending cuts. Could more be done?
“I know and respect Cottarelli and I read an interview with him in which he judged the spending cuts made by Renzi to be important and courageous. After all, we see the oppositions that give rise to all cuts, even the most reasonable ones, because behind every public expenditure there is always someone who, sometimes in good faith, gets away with it. More generally, I believe that the culture of the country is very confused on this point. From what I see in Parliament, even the representatives of anti-politics move according to the same logic of the old politics, that is, distribute public money to well-defined categories of citizens or businesses, identified according to criteria decided by politicians. In short, the grillino Di Battista in this is placed on a line of continuity with famous exponents of the first Republic such as De Michelis ".
The culture of the Italians does not seem capable of appreciating a true and incisive reform project.
“I think we can get out of the crisis with a reform project that is made up of all the chapters illustrated very well by Renzi. Time has to be tightened. Unfortunately I don't think there is full awareness of the risks in Parliament and outside it. The Democratic Party, which is a large structured party and with a large, valuable ruling class, must assume the responsibility of taking strong action (political and legislative) to avoid the catastrophic scenario that is presented to the country by the grillina irresponsibility and Northern League adventurism. ”
