The war does not stop, the stock markets archive the worst quarter since the outbreak of Covid. But from today the funds, freed from the constraints of closing the quarter, will try to set up some initiatives starting this morning.
- Le Stock Exchanges of China started the new month, as well as the new quarter, up: CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges +1,1%
- The Italian Ferretti, which made its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Thursday with a slight increase, is still moving little today. It is not an easy time for superyacht builders, given the problems of Russian customers.
- China has decided to extend the deadline by 14 days pudong closure, the financial district of Shanghai from which it will not be possible to enter or exit in the so far failed attempt to defeat the Covid-19. Given the premises, it is not surprising that the Dragon's economy is experiencing a setback: the PMI index elaborated by Caixin on the expectations of manufacturing companies fell in March to its lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic to 48,1 from 50,4. The consensus was expecting 49,9.
- Il Tokyo Nikkei is down 0,4%. Kospi of Seoul -0,7%. In March, South Korea's exports reached a record level of 63 billion dollars, +18% yoy. The increase is in line with forecasts. Imports jumped 28%, a jump caused by soaring energy prices.
- The futures of Wall Street they're on a slight rise. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed down by 1,6%: the March balance sheet was good (+5,2%) and the quarterly negative -5%.
- The focus is also on the number of new jobs created in the United States in March: the consensus expects a drop to 490.000 from 678.000 in February.
- Ten-year Treasury Notes at 2,39%, +5 basis points. The two-year is at 2,37%. The debate among economists on the meaning of the inverted curve continues.
- Il WTI oil overwhelmed by the US decision to use strategic reserves on Thursday, it is again below the one hundred dollar level this morning, down 0,5% to 99,8 dollars. Brent at $104.
- Gold unchanged at $1.937.
- Euro in adjustment after the drop on Thursday, to 1,106.
The lack of acceleration by Beijing, the only one among the big ones not suffering from inflation, is an additional problem for the markets, resigned to an imminent increase in US rates of at least 50 points, despite the impact on the prices of the oil of Biden's decision to free up one million barrels of the strategic reserve for 180 days after, however, acknowledging that OPEC + has not increased production and that the US Big Oils are far from reopening their wells at home, fearing a drop in consumption.
However, the earthenware pot remains Europe, hit by war: Putin's April Fool's Day, which insists on payment from today for gas in rubles, it's just an extra problem in the face of soaring inflation with no room to raise rates.
Putin's diktat on gas ends the worst quarter for the stock markets
The war in Ukraine and the acceleration of inflation have strongly conditioned this first quarter, which is about to be the worst in the last two years for many stock markets. In fact, to find worse, we need to go back to the first fraction of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. It certainly is for the Ftse Mib, which records a negative final balance of 8%, roughly in line with the -8,5% recorded by the Eurostoxx 50 index of the blue chips in the euro area and -8,80% by the Frankfurt Dax.
Complicating the picture was Moscow's April Fool's Day, ie the obligation for "enemy countries" to pay Moscow's oil only in rubles, a request rejected to the sender. The long-term effect on the markets is not easy to decipher. “The impression – comments Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia – that the operation is alone Putin's propaganda for internal purposes, because apparently "hostile" countries would be allowed to pay in Euros and have Gazprom change them locally. A round game, in short, also because Russia needs valuable uniforms”.
Inflation at 6,7% at its peak. De Guindos: will come down in the summer
It's not just a feeling though the rise of inflation, which rose in Italy for the ninth consecutive month to 6,7% as it hadn't been recorded since July 1991. France also recorded a record increase of +5,1%, as well as Germany +7,3% and Spain + 9,8%.
In the euro area, the consensus sees inflation data for March, expected for today, at record levels over 7%, well above the ECB target of 2%.
ECB Vice-President Luis De Guindos said on Thursday that euro zone inflation would continue to rise in the coming months and would peak around mid-year. “I think inflation will continue to rise over the next few months and we expect it to start declining in the second half of the year. I hope that the peak will be reached within the next three to four months”.
Btp yields are slowing down. Stable spread at 148
A breath of fresh air for the bond market after the recent storms. Yields on ten-year BTPs slow down, slipping to 2,04% from the peak of 2,14%
The trend of the Bund is similar +0,54%; the spread at 148 points remains unchanged.
Sold out in the reopening of medium-long auctions. The Treasury has assigned all the additional 600 million offered in the 5-year BTP, against requests for 1,897 billion and all the additional 700 million in the 10-year BTP against requests for 2,113 billion.
In Thursday's medium-long auction, yields on 5- and 10-year BTPs both rose to their highest level since May 2019.
MY BAG Milan and Europe stock exchanges
Piazza Affari -1.1% stops the decline a little above 25 mia points (25.021).
In the final, European Stock Exchanges slip to their lowest since the opening, EuroStoxx Index 50-1,2%.
The picture is similar in Frankfurt -1,29%, Paris -1,21%, Amsterdam -1,32%, Madrid -1,22%, London -0,85%.
A beating for H&M -12,9%
Setback of one of the giants of clothing retail, the Swedish H&M -12,91%, which has not respected the expected targets.
Generali never stops. And Del Vecchio buys
The run by Generali +3,2% remains the keynote of Piazza Affari. JP Morgan upheld the overweight rating. The stock that closed the quarter at its highest level since 2008. Meanwhile Leonardo Del Vecchio, after saying he appreciates Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone's alternative plan, lets it be known that he is "evaluating" whether to raise more than 8% in the capital. Securities deposited by the 12th may participate in the meeting.
Tim -7,7% chooses Cdp: Opa Kkr withdraws
Tim falls -7,7%. The hypothesis of an agreement with Kkr is moving away. The company is trying to close a non-disclosure agreement with CDP in early April to start formal negotiations on the integration of fixed network assets with those of Open Fiber, explain sources close to the situation. Although of a non-binding nature, the signing of a non-disclosure agreement with CDP would mark a further step in an alternative direction with respect to the non-binding purchase proposal of the US fund.
Sace guarantees Saipem increase, thanks Eni
Decided purchases on the oil sector despite the decline in oil prices. Corre Saipem +2,66%: Sace has decided to grant a guarantee to cover 70% of the liquidity line of 855 million as part of the financial package already announced by the company. “Sace's guarantee represents an advantage above all for Eni which reduces the risk of exposure on the loan to Saipem”, writes the broker Bestinver. Saras was also well collected, jumping by 2,8%.
Terna at the top, banks below par
Among the utilities: Terna +3,3% closed the quarter on an all-time high
Bank shares were negative: Unicredit -2,8%, Intesa Sanpaolo -2,4%, Bper -3,2% and Banco Bpm -3,1%. The only one traveling in the opposite direction is Mediobanca +0,9%.
Down Nexi -4,3% and Stm -2,7%.
