In 2012 world trade grew in volume by only 2,3%, less than half of what happened in the previous year (+5,4%) and even further from the 2010 figure (+13,8%) which however it represented a recovery after the extraordinary contraction of 2009 (-12,5%). According to the WTO (World Trade Organization) the final balance for the current year (+2,5%) should not differ significantly from that of 2012, to accelerate (possibly) in 2014 (+4,5%).
Even if this were to happen, the growth of international trade would be significantly lower for the third consecutive year both than the average of the period preceding the financial crisis (+6,0% per year from 1990 to 2008) and the average of the last twenty years (+ 5,3% from 1992 to 2012). In the five-year period 2008-12, the G7 countries granted official medium- to long-term export credit for a total of $326 billion, distributed increasingly over the period ($44 billion in 2008, $74 billion in each of the past two years). In the same five-year period, new disbursements from China amounted to 226 billion dollars (69% of the G7 total), those from India to $49 billion. Interesting indications can be obtained from an examination of the main export support structures set up in the three leading countries of world trade, namely Germany, China and the United States.
Attachments: Focus no. 41 – 18 November 2013.pdf
