The International Monetary Fund has revised downwards forecasts on global growth, Europe and Italy, warning that the positive effect of the drop in oil will be more than offset by the weakness of investments and the slowdown in several countries.
BAD ITALY
Now the IMF estimates that in 2015 our country's GDP will grow by 0,4% (the same figure provided a few days ago by the Bank of Italy, also in that case with a downward revision), which will be followed by +0,8% in 2016 (against the +1,2% forecast by Bank of Italy). In both cases, these are reductions of 0,5 percentage points compared to the estimates provided in October 2014. The Fund then specified that Italy closed 2014 in a recession of 0,4%, after -1,9, 2013% of XNUMX.
CUTS ALSO FOR THE EUROZONE, GERMANY AND FRANCE. ONLY SPAIN IMPROVED
According to the IMF, this year the growth of the Eurozone will be triple that of Italy (+1,2%, 0,2% less than previous estimates), while in 2016 it will settle at +1,4% ( -0,3% compared to the data provided in October). Germany's GDP should instead rise by 1,3% in 2015 and 1,5% next year (-0,2 and -0,3% from the latest forecasts), while that of France by 0,9. 1,3 and 0,1% (-0,2 and -2,0% over October). The only upward revision within the euro area is for Spain, which this year will grow by 0,3% (+2016%) and by 1,8% (unchanged) in XNUMX.
“MITIGATING AUSTERITY”
In this context, the IMF recommends “weakening the pace and composition of fiscal consolidation so as to favor both the recovery and long-term growth prospects. From this point of view there is a strong case for increasing investment in infrastructure in some countries”.
“ECB DOES NOT DELIVER QE EXPECTATIONS”
The chief economist of the IMF, Olivier Blanchard, expects the ECB to do what investors have already anticipated: “From a certain point of view – he said in an interview with Bloomberg – quantitative easing has already taken place. The markets anticipated it, interest rates fell, the euro depreciated. We would like to make sure that when there is an announcement, it will be as big as the market is expecting."
RUSSIA IN THE CHALLENGE
For Russia's GDP, however, the IMF expects a recession of 3% in 2015 and a further percentage point in 2016, respectively 3,5 and 2,5% less than the data provided last October. These are the most significant cuts among those reported in the report and are mainly linked to the collapse of oil and the ruble, as well as the economic sanctions for the Ukrainian crisis.
GLOBAL GROWTH
As for global growth, the Fund believes it will reach +3,5% this year and +3,7% in 2016, or 0,3 percentage points less than forecast last October. “Global growth will receive a boost from falling oil prices – reads the World Economic Outlook published today -. But this will be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness and an adjustment to reduced medium-term growth expectations in several forward and emerging countries.
