“Italy cannot do it alone”. This is the opinion of the director of the IMF's Department of Budgetary Affairs, Carlo Cottarelli, who stressed that it is absolutely necessary to strengthen the anti-crisis system at European level. Appreciation for the "strong correction of the accounts" made by the Monti government, but "now we need structural reforms".
Italy will be able to catch up the balanced budget in 2013, yet in the next two years our debt will continue to grow. It is what the same provides International Monetary Fund in the update to its World Economic Outlook. In detail, the Italian public deficit will drop this year to 0,8% of GDP, to be canceled in 2013. GDP, on the other hand, will drop by 2,2% in 2012 and by 0,6% next year.
The Washington-based institution appreciates the maneuvers approved by Italy, especially the most recent pension reform, thanks to which our country will record the best spending correction among advanced countries, but only within the next twenty years.
Broadening the perspective toglobal economy, the IMF points out that "growth prospects have weakened and the risks of a slowdown have increased". A significant reduction in the estimates is thus noted: after the increase of 3,8% in 2011, a growth of 3,3% is expected in 2012 and +3,9 in 2013 (figures respectively down by 0,7 and 0,6% compared to the October estimates). As regards advanced economies, the IMF now expects growth of 1,2% in 2012 (0,7% less than the previous estimate) and 1,9% in 2013 (0,5% in less).
The most immediate challenge is therefore "to restore confidence and put an end to the Eurozone crisis by supporting growth, favoring adjustments, contending with deleveraging and guaranteeing greater liquidity and accommodative monetary strategies". In advanced economies, it will be necessary to eliminate fiscal imbalances and reform the financial system, while supporting the recovery.
As for Europe, “the crisis has further intensified, requiring urgent action to prevent highly destabilizing effects”. For the economy ofEurozone, the IMF has significantly revised its growth estimates downwards: after an increase of 1,6% in 2011, a contraction of 0,5% is expected in 2012 and a +0,8% in 2013 (respectively a decrease by 1,6 and 0,7% compared to the October estimates).
For the United States positive signs have arrived on the front of consumption and fixed income investments, but "these developments are not expected to help maintain the momentum going forward". The IMF has only partially touched the US growth forecasts for the next two years: after +1,8% in 2011, +1,8% is expected in 2012 and +2,2% in 2013 (the first figure is unchanged, while the second is down by 0,3% compared to the October estimates).
In short, the US economy risks "a series of shocks due to the Eurozone, which reflects the close financial and commercial integration on both sides of the Atlantic".
