The International Monetary Fund has once again revised upwards its forecasts for Italy's economic growth: one decimal point more than the July data both on 2015 (+0,8%) and next year (+1,3%). The data are contained in the World Economic Outlook, presented at the autumn meetings with the World Bank. The Italian government expects +0,9 and +1,6% respectively.
The IMF also sees slight improvements on the rate unemployment, to 12,2% in 2015 and 11,9% in 2016, from 12,7% in 2014. In the euro area, 11% is expected this year and 10,5% in 2016.
On the public accounts front, according to the Fund this year the budget deficit Italian will drop to 2,7% of GDP, from 3% in 2014, and next year will mark a further reduction to 2%. For 2020, the IMF expects a substantial balance with a deficit reduced to 0,2% of GDP.
Il debt meanwhile it will peak at 133,1% of GDP this year, to then drop to 132,3% in 2016, according to figures included in the World Economic Outlook. Looking ahead to 2020, the institution expects a reduction of GDP to 123%.
The Monetary Fund also cut its estimates by two tenths world GDP both for 2015 (+3,1%) and for 2016 (+3,6%). "We expect global growth to remain moderate and uneven in the near term, with risks of a slowdown more pronounced than it appeared last July," said chief economist Maurice Obstfeld. “The holy grail of robust and synchronized global growth remains elusive.”
According to the IMF, at this stage there are at least three major forces making themselves felt in global economic activity. The first is the economic transformation of China from a model unbalanced on exports and investments to a system that rests more on domestic consumption and services and which implies a slowdown of the Dragon (the IMF confirmed the Chinese growth forecasts of 6,8% this year and 6,3% next, up from 7,3% in 2014).
The second factor, correlated to the slowdown in China and emerging markets, is the sharp drop in the price of raw materials, which has accelerated in recent months. The third is the prospect of normalizing interest rates and the Fed's monetary policy in the United States United States.
The IMF raised its forecast for growth of the leading global economy on 2015 by 0,1 points, to +2,6%, but it also cut its forecast on 0,2 by 2016 points, to +2,8%.
