The search for one has begun majority for the Draghi government. Yesterday, Wednesday 3 February, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, entrusted the former number one of the ECB with the task of form a new Executive. However, the feat will not be easy to achieve. From the first statements made by the leaders of the main parties, Draghi will have to work hard to find the numbers necessary to obtain trust, especially in the Chamber, the real needle in the balance in view of the possible defection of the 5 Star Movement.
The consultations between the appointed Premier and the political forces present in Parliament will begin in the afternoon in Montecitorio. From these talks will depend not only the numbers of the new Executive, but also its structure. Will it be a caretaker government, a political government, or a mix of the two formulas?
WHO WILL SUPPORT DRAGONS
There are no doubts about the support of the Democratic Party which has 93 deputies and 35 senators. Yes also from Italia Viva (28 deputies and 18 senators), Autonomies, Europeanists, +Europe, Action and other members of the Misto group. The support of LeU is also probable.
THE CENTER-RIGHT
After yesterday's summit, the center-right has decided to present itself united to the consultations. However, the three souls of the coalition seem divided. Fratelli d'Italia is for No to trust, even if it could be willing to abstain. Forza Italia, on the other hand, seems to be willing to vote in favor of the high-profile government led by Mario Draghi. In between is the League. Matteo Salvini, while reiterating that the main road is the elections, did not close the door: “We will evaluate proposals, ideas and contents. Then we will see what to do,” he said.
THE 5 STAR MOVEMENT
The Five Stars are coming out of the political crisis very badly. The party is split more than ever and is trying to regroup precisely on the No to the Draghi government. On Wednesday Grillo tried to dictate the Line: “Loyal to Conte”. The former Premier has leaked, among other things, that he is not available to occupy a ministry. “With all due respect to Draghi, the path is another: he is a political executive,” Luigi Di Maio said today, but his silence in the previous hours suggests that there is little conviction in his words.
It is therefore possible that the party will split, between those who decide to support the new majority and those who believe they will remain "faithful to the line".
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
What it will be like and whether there will be a Draghi government will therefore depend on the League and the 5 Star Movement, which are also the two parties with the highest number of parliamentarians. Let's try to understand what the numbers of the new majority could be by helping us with the estimates of YouTrend and Cattaneo Zanetto & Co.
1 scenario The outgoing majority formed by M5S, Pd, LeU and Italia Viva manages to regroup. Added to these parties are +Europe, Action and Let's Change!. The Draghi government gains confidence with 366 votes in favor (out of 630) in the Chamber and 179 (out of 315) in the Senate. The majority is there.
Scenario 2: Forza Italia also joins the previously listed parties. In this case Draghi will be able to count on a very large majority: 457 deputies and 231 senators.
Scenario 3: the M5S, as announced, slips away and the Pd, Forza Italia, Leu, Italia Viva and other small parties line up in favor of Draghi. It is not enough. The former ECB president will have only 266 seats in the Chamber and 139 in the Senate. The only option: minority government and abstention from the 5S which would bring down the threshold for trust
Scenario 4: League in favor and M5S against. With the go-ahead from the Carroccio of Forza Italia, Pd, Italia Viva and the other minor parties and the defection of the grillini, Draghi would still have the majority necessary to govern, counting on at least 199 votes in favor (out of 315) in the Senate and 400 (out of 630) in the Chamber.
Scenario 5: The League abstains and the bar necessary for trust drops to 127 in the Senate and 249 in the Chamber. In this case it will be possible to give life to the Draghi government also with the No of the 5 Star Movement and the Brothers of Italy, with 136 yes in Palazzo Madama and 269 in Montecitorio.
