FIAT AND BANKS IN THE LIGHT ON CONSOB DAY
THE BRAKING OF CHINA AND THE UKRAINE WEIGHT ON THE PRICE LISTS
La Chinese locomotive keep slowing down. This is what emerges from given PMI, which signals the still weak trend of manufacturing activity (48,4), down for the fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile the winds of war continue to blow from Ukraine: a police station in Odessa has been conquered by separatist militias.
Reflex, reflexively, the Shanghai Stock Exchange -0,75%. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are pushing gold up (1305 dollars an ounce) in a thin market, conditioned by the closure of Tokyo and the Korea Stock Exchange today and tomorrow for holidays.
This is how we start again after the "short" week, which however recorded quite a few changes: the recovery of the US occupation and the fireworks of the various M&As (Pfizer-Astra in the lead). Meanwhile, awaiting the ECB directorate on Thursday the 8th, the European Commission will release its spring forecasts today. Tomorrow will be the turn of the Eurogroup and Ecofin in which Minister Pier Carlo Padoan will be able to bring the first measures to relaunch the economy to the Community table. On the recovery, Padoan declared on TV yesterday, there will be "positive surprises in the second half of the year".
The weekly budget of Business Square closed in parity: the index fell by 0,1%. Since the beginning of the year, however, the increase is 14,8%. A flattering result, or rather the best gift for the first 40 years of Consob celebrated this morning by the president Giuseppe Vegas in the usual annual report.
Wall Street closed Friday in the red, but the balance sheet for the week recorded a modest rise: S&P 500 +1% (after an all-time intraday record); Dow Jones +0.9% (and new high). Best of all the Nasdaq +1,2%.
The usual meeting of the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, the giant with 300 billion assets managed by Warren Buffett, was held on Saturday: the essay from Omaha expressed confidence in the US economy, anticipated new acquisitions both alone and in combination with 3G Capital led by former tennis champion Jorge Paulo Lemao.
The index Stoxx 600 of the European Stock Exchanges it rose by 1,2% during the week. The Merger & Acquisition operations, which are the basis of the increases in the, strongly contributed to this result British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca +17% and French Alstom +10%. Since the beginning of the year, M&A deals have been announced around the world for a value of 1.000 billion dollars. The calculation is by Bloomberg, which points out that this year the trillion dollar threshold was touched a good 54 days before what happened in 2013, above all thanks to a concentration of operations announced in April for a total of 300 billion, without count 175 billion purchase offers that have instead been rejected or are still waiting for a response.
BTP, BUND AND BONO SKY-STARTING WAITING FOR THE ECB
Pending the top of the ECB on Thursday, the markets buy bonds liberally on all markets (including emerging markets) with a particular eye on the so-called European periphery.
The BTP hit a new record with the 3,03-year yield at an all-time low of XNUMX%. The spread with the Bund is at 158. Spain did even better: the yield on the Bonos fell to 2,97% to its lowest since the early 8,4s. Meanwhile, Ireland has now pegged UK gilt yields. Even more sensational results concern Portugal, Greece (from 6,1 to XNUMX%) and Cyprus.
But the downpour of purchases also involved the "core" markets: the German 1,45-year bond fell to 1,9% from 3%, the German 2,58-month bond returned to negative ground; the US T bond closes the week at 3,4%, the XNUMX-year bond yields less than XNUMX%.
The absence of inflation weighs on all markets, a factor that removes tensions on interest rates but dampens enthusiasm, as confirmed on Friday by the sluggish reaction of the US stock market and the subsequent slowdown of the dollar after the brilliant data on US employment.
LISBON IS FREE OF THE TROIKA. THE RATINGS ARE GOING UP (LATELY).
After Dublin, Lisbon. Portugal exited the troika bailout procedure yesterday, without asking for any protective umbrella in view of the forthcoming public bond auctions. A choice supported by the performance of the "periphery" of Europe: Ireland has now hooked the yields of British gilts. Meanwhile, the yields of Greece, given up for a year ago, have dropped to 6,1%).
Flows towards the "periphery" of Europe, judged by some to be at risk of a bubble, are favored by the usually pro-cyclical (rather belated) ratings of the rating agencies: Fitch's promotion of Slovenia also arrived on Friday ( outlook from negative to stable). Previously the agency had improved the rating of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus. In recent months, Moody's has promoted Ireland and Spain and raised the outlook for seven other eurozone countries (including Italy and Germany). Finally, Standard & Poor's raised its outlook on Belgium. The only "rejection" concerns Finland: S&P confirmed the triple A but lowered the outlook to negative. A new boost could come on Friday when Moody's and S&P announce new votes on Portugal.
ALFA, THE TIME IS CLICKING. MARCHIONNE'S PLANS IN DETROIT
The highlight of the week will undoubtedly be the presentation of the quarterly report and the business plan of Fiat Chrysler Automobile. In Detroit, Sergio Machionne will illustrate a plan that promises to be "more than ambitious", centered on a goal of over 6 million cars by 2018) and excellent profits, with the resurgence of an autonomous Alfa Romeo, a brand to be associated as much as possible with Maserati, not excluding the transfer of the headquarters to Modena. But also on a China plan for Jeep, an autonomous strategy for Brazil and the birth of a low-cost brand.
Great expectations among analysts. But just as great caution. How will Marchionne manage to finance the plan? The group, which after having completed the purchase of Chrysler, has a debt of more than ten billion, is in fact preparing to face investments which envisage investments of 9 billion just for the relaunch of Alfa. At the end of March, during the shareholders' meeting, Marchionne said that he could continue without capital reinforcements, adding, however, that the convertible loan (1,5 billion euro) remains possible. However, the plan will need a lot of cash. Therefore, other innovations are not excluded, see the possible IPO of Ferrari or Maserati.
Certainly, as Max Warburton of Alliance Bernstein wrote, "a credible plan with credible investments means for FCA not to generate cash profits and not to pay dividends to shareholders for at least 3-4 years".
Fiat has gained around 2014% since the beginning of 47.
In the automotive spotlight also lit up Brembo + 5,5% to 28,13 euros, driven by Mediobanca which raised the target price to 31 euros from the previous 27 euros, confirming the positive Outperform recommendation. The stock has soared 100% in 2013 and 43% since the beginning of the year.
RCS, TECHNICAL APPOINTMENT (CRIMSON) IN PLACE OF PESENTI
Il Board of Rcs MediaGroup decided yesterday evening to propose to the shareholders to integrate the board with Teresa Cremisi, president and general manager of Flammarion, the French publishing house sold two years ago. The directors decided this this evening, in view of the shareholders' meeting to be held next Thursday, May 8th. Cremisi, who will replace the outgoing Carlo Pesenti, is also director of Rcs Libri (she intends to resign if elected).
the shareholders will also have to express their opinion on the confirmation of Attilio Guarneri, proposed by the heirs of Giuseppe Rotelli and already co-opted to the board as the first of the non-elected in the minority list.
The shareholders will also have to vote on the amendment to the statute, setting the number of directors from a minimum of seven to a maximum of eleven, with the assignment of two thirds of the seats to the list with the most votes and one third to the minorities. The proposal to convert the savings bonds of both categories into ordinary shares will also be submitted to the shareholders' meeting on Thursday.
ENI, THE SCARONI ERA IS CLOSING, ATLANTI TIFA ETIHAD
Historic assembly, Thursday, at Eni's house. In fact, Paolo Scaroni's era at the top of the six-legged dog ended, with the passing of the baton to Claudio Descalzi, already at the head of the exploration sector and protagonist of the successful discoveries of the fields in Mozambique.
Among the other appointments of the week, Tuesday the approval of the quarterly reports of Finmeccanica and Snam. The following day will be the turn of quarterly reports by Enel Green Power and Pirelli, while on Thursday 8 May it will be the turn of CNH Industrial, Enel and Mediobanca. The week will end with the approval of Atlantia's accounts, under the spotlight for the fallout from the agreement, still to be defined, between Alitalia and Etihad. The strategy of the Abu Dhabi company foresees a key role for the Fiumicino hub.
Today the dividends are detached: Astm, Banca Profilo, Popolare Sondrio, Banco Desio, Banco di Sardegna, Centrale Latte Torino, Enervit, Esprinet, Mutui Online, Leone Film Group, Saes Getters, Save, Valsoia.
MEDIASET ADVANCES THANKS TO SPAIN
Mediaset it closed the week at the top of the top ten on Piazza Affari with an increase of 7,4%. The market awaits news from Spain. According to recent rumors, the agreement with Prisa for the purchase of 56% of D+, the Spanish digital pay-TV platform in which Mediaset already has a 22% stake, could be close.
Leading the negotiations would be Telefonica, owner of another 22%, which is said to be about to present an offer close to the 800 million requested by Prisa, and would like to involve Mediaset in the purchase.
THE BPM OPERATION HAS BEEN STARTED. BPER ALSO INCREASES ITS CAPITAL
The capital increase of the company kicks off this morning Banca Popolare di Milano for 500 million euros which on Friday closed flat a session that saw it sail over 0,76 euros. During the week, the stock lost 3,4%. The rights will be negotiable until May 16. The adjusted reference price is equal to 0,6475 euro, while the unit reference value of the rights will instead be equal to 0,0784 euro. The subscription price will be 0,43 euro, with a ratio of 9 newly issued shares for every 25 shares held. The discount on the theoretical post detachment price of the right is equal to 31,76%.
The increase has a total cost of 26 million euros between expenses and commissions paid to the guarantee consortium. The institute's quarterly report will also be approved during the week.
Leaving this morning too the grouping of Monte Paschi shares at the rate of one new ordinary share for every hundred held. The institute of Siena was the rear light (-4%) of the list in the last week.
The Italian stoxx lost 0,16% on Friday, the European one 0,48%.
Pamplona Capital Management trimmed its stake in Unicredit to 4,877% from the 5,001% it held in June 2012.
Toned Carige +5,55% after the top management reiterated in yesterday's meeting that the capital increase of 800 million is sufficient, while the Foundation is ready to go down to 19% of the capital.
Highlights too Bper +1,27% on Friday also thanks to Banca Akros which estimated good results for the group in the first quarter. Tomorrow the institute's board of directors will meet: a capital increase of around 800 million is on the agenda.
