As reported by the SACE, last October a cyclical growth of Italian exports was estimated (+3,1%) and a drop in imports (-2,3%). This increase in exports is mainly attributable to the growth trend in sales to non-EU markets (+6,1%) for a value close to 400 billion euros, up by 2,7% compared to the same period of 2018, mainly due to maritime navigation.
When compared with the main European partners, only France shows a better dynamic (+4,1%); Germany and Spain rose by around 1%, while UK exports remained stable. However, demand from EU countries is weak, especially in Germany (+0,2%), also due to the negative economic situation in the automotive sector, highly integrated with the Italian supply chain; sales in Poland are down, economy connected to the German one. In the non-EU area Made in Italy is growing significantly (+10-20%) in Japan, Switzerland and the USA. Excellent performance also in Russia; negative instead in Africa and China (-1,4%). In the Asean markets, the dynamics of exports of capital goods (machinery and means of transport), as well as agri-food, are positive.
For last October analysts confirm an increase in the trade surplus of 4,2 billion euros, with a trade surplus of +43 billion in the first ten months of the year. In the same period, the import price index is estimated to have grown by 0,1% compared to the previous month and decreased by 3,8% in trend terms.
If we look at the main groupings of industries, exports of consumer goods are confirmed as the most dynamic (+8,9% in the first ten months of this year), thanks mainly to non-durable goods (+10,3%). On the other hand, the growth of durable consumer goods remains weaker (+2,3%). Sales of capital goods recovered, but remained in negative territory (-0,6%), due to the weakness of the investment cycle at a global level. The export of the other manufacturing is progressing, driven by jewels and medical devices. The top performer is still pharmaceuticals (+26,2%), while positive results are also reported for the fashion sector (+6,2%).
