Europe seems to underestimate the expansionist aims of Erdogan's Türkiye. 45 years after the attack on Fiumicino Airport, those who look at Trump's declaration on Jerusalem as the beginning of the troubles in the Middle East seem not to consider the background that led to this need by the Trump Administration in terms of timing and methods of the announcement. And the recent investigation opened against former President Obama on his action aimed at blocking the DEA operation, called the Cassandra project, which in fact would have blocked the activities of the Lebanese terrorists of Hezbollah but would have jeopardized the agreement with the 'Iran tells only a small part of the political and above all economic interests that converge in an area that for over 20 years has seen every attempt at peace fail and that from the Arab spring to the Syrian conflict is experiencing a de facto implosion within the Arab world, as demonstrated by the stalemate of 5 December where it seemed evident that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is also heading towards a breakup.
With the USA distancing itself from the Middle East for several years now, a head-on clash between the GCC and Iran is expected, in which a new role of Turkey is grafted which has by now cleared the annexation to the EU, which has never been in the Erdogan's plans.
OTTOMAN NEO-EXPANSIONISM AND NEW EQUILIBRIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST
In fact, on December 7-8, one day after the unilateral American announcement, Erdogan visits Athens, a historic event because since 1952 a Turkish president has not touched Greek soil, and a case explodes for his request in a review interview of the Treaty of Lausanne of 1923 and upsetting the diplomatic protocol in the face of an astonished President Pavlopoulos and confirming the intent of an Ottoman neo-expansionism and open revisionism which had already seen the request for control of the Aegean islands and a solution to the issue Cypriot unacceptable for the Greeks.
Bearing in mind that the Treaty of Lausanne, beyond the questions concerning the resident Turkish minority, above all fixes the borders between Turkey, Iraq and Syria, after the dissolution of the Ottoman empire, and Erdogan's intention is clear to review the borders of the territorial waters and also of the airspace.
It should be remembered that already in mid-September there was an agreement between Iran, Russia and Turkey on the division of the respective surveillance areas of the neighboring Syrian provinces. Russia and Turkey are interested in the control of the Bosphorus, which connects the Black Sea and the Mediterranean just as in a hegemonic control of the Caucasus. Basically, in a moment of dissolution of an active American and European role in the area, Russia is trying to stem the impetus of Iran and Turkey to strengthen their role as powers in the region by going into open conflict with the Sunni Gulf monarchies in full disintegration in turn.
Up to now the GCC had been an important, cohesive and very strong bulwark in facing the Iranian threat but now with an Iraq that has launched a new policy in favor of the Shiites and a Lebanese president in favor of Hezbollah, the tough stance taken by the 'Saudi Arabia against Qatar, which on November 26 signed a new free trade agreement with Iran and Turkey. And efforts by Oman and Kuwait to mend the rift within the Gulf alliance have so far yielded no significant results.
THE DANGER OF THE TURKEY-IRAN AXIS UNDERESTIMATED BY THE EU
On December 13 Erdogan masterfully orchestrated a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation of Arab Countries, largely deserted by African and Asian countries starting to distance themselves from Turkish Ottoman authoritarianism, but which explicitly depicted an axis alongside of the Syrian President Bashar Assad formed by Turkey, Qatar, Iran, Jordan as opposed to the axis Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
It is clear that the Syrian war is drawing to a close and that China and Russia are at the forefront of rebuilding the country, also bearing in mind that the Chinese aim is to bring Syria back into the "One Belt One Road Initiative" project , an investment project along the ancient Silk Road that would allow the Chinese to expand the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) by opposing NATO and strengthening its strategic economic alliance with Iran.
The only reason why Trump has launched on the negotiating table a declaration of definitive recognition of Jerusalem as the capital, applying the decision of the US Congress in 1995 under Clinton, lies in wanting to confirm that on the one hand he is in line with Obama for a disengagement US military from the Middle East thus leaving the area free for allied countries.
But, on the other hand, it has thrown a strong rye at diplomacy on the fact that in the face of an infinite chaos, which in the last 20 years has seen countries dispute over territories and fan the flames of the Israeli-Palestinian question, these have never taken action to help a solution, just as they have not lifted a finger to prevent the escalation of the Syrian conflict with its 450 dead. And Iran, well aware of this US retreat, takes advantage of the weak situation of the GCC and exploits the Ottoman declaration of revisionism and its "holy war" against Europe and the West more generally.
The game at stake goes well beyond Jerusalem but concerns the control of territories, ports, military bases, arms and oil trafficking in an area that has always been at the center of commercial disputes hidden by dominant religious and political issues. The fact that the DEA was stopped by Obama just as they were about to arrest Hezbollah members supplying weapons to Syrian President Assad's militias to ensure the former US president's political success with the short-lived deal with Iran, it also involves the EU as it seems evident that the DEA investigation was well known by the body of the Union for foreign affairs and European security policy chaired by the Italian Mogherini.
And taking into account that ISIS is reduced in its action and "delocalized" in the Sinai, the real danger is and remains Hezbollah and Iran but obviously in Europe they are all united in the umpteenth misunderstanding of a non-existent foreign and Middle East policy and totally unaware of the reality on the ground.
