- All eyes are on Scotland, because the future of the struggle for independence will depend on the new parliamentary structure in Edinburgh, which also directly affects the European Union, but the local and regional elections held in Great Britain Thursday 6 May represent a unicum in history. Never before have over 5.000 representation seats been up for grabs all together in one day. It is no coincidence that the English press speaks of "Super Thursday”, super Thursday, a crucial electoral appointment to understand the direction that Great Britain will take post-Brexit. For the conservative it is an important test to understand the opinion of citizens on the management of the pandemic, for i Labor represents yet another challenge to understand if the internal revolution carried out in recent years will have effects on the polls or if there is a need for further change. For British politics as a whole, this election will be crucial to see if Britain has managed to get through a united Brexit or if the consequences of divorce from the EU will give greater strength to the separatist and pro-independence wills more and more widespread in some territories of the Kingdom.
GREAT BRITAIN ELECTIONS: ALL THE CHALLENGES
Why are there so many places up for grabs? Because due to the pandemic, the votes expected in 2020 have been postponed by a year. Thursday May 6th therefore two elections are held at once, those of last year and those already scheduled for 2021. From these appointments it will be understood what the political narrative of the next general elections to be held in two years will be.
As mentioned, this electoral round will decide the fate of over 5.000 seats including 143 in English councils, 129 in the Scottish Parliament, 60 in the Welsh Assembly, 25 in the London Assembly. Added to these are 13 directly elected mayors (including that of the capital), 39 police commissioners and a Westminster by-election for the Hartlepool constituency.
As explained by election expert Robert Hayward a Politico "It makes more sense to look at results on a geographic basis, to see whether parties will gain or lose ground in key battlefields, than to pay too much attention to the overall numbers." And therefore we need to look primarily at Scotland, but also at the so-called Red Wall, an area in the North and Midlands of England where the Conservatives won seats historically belonging to Labor in the last general election in 2019. Also look out for what could happen to London, where, however, the confirmation of the current mayor Sadiq Khan appears obvious.
ELECTIONS IN THE DARK
These elections are also interesting because they are accompanied by aunprecedented uncertainty. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the candidates were unable to carry out their usual electoral campaign, going from polling station to polling station to try to collect votes and directly test the opinion of the electorate. Distance and caution were the cornerstones of this vote, rules that have also put a strain on the polls.
“All politicians have a worse feeling at the end of April than I've ever known,” Hayward said.
THE ELECTIONS IN SCOTLAND
The most important electoral appointment of Super Thursday is the one held in Scotland to elect the 129 members of Parliament of Holyrood. The advantage is stillSNP, the Scottish National Party. The victory of the party led by the current premier Nicola Sturgeon does not seem to be in question, but it will be essential to understand the margins of this victory, because the future of Scottish independence will depend on the percentages.
Those of 6 May are, moreover, the first elections after the Brexit strongly opposed by Edinburgh. In fact, we recall that in the 2016 referendum, 62% of the Scots voted for "Remain" and since then many have been asking for the separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom and a return in style to the European Union.
Trying to contend for seats in the SNP are primarily the Conservative party led by Douglas Ross and the Labor Party by Anas Sarwar. Among the parties that, according to polls, could strengthen thanks to the polls, there are also i Scottish Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens. However, the results of the 25 small parties taking part in the elections will also be important. Among them there is also Alba, the pro-independence party of the former Prime Minister and former SNP leader, Alex Salmond, who according to polls could reach 11% and become the majority by right.
Then there is another unknown which, by itself, will be enough to determine the future of Scotland: the turnout. If the pro-independence activists win, but the voter turnout is low (the average is usually around 53%), London could take the opportunity to disavow the result, arguing that "the cause was supported by only half of the population". If, on the other hand, the turnout were high, Edinburgh's separatist will could emerge further strengthened.
“The SNP will take any kind of majority as a mandate for a new independence referendum,” Politico underlines. The number of votes that the main Scottish party will be able to obtain will therefore be fundamental. If he manages to win the absolute majority the independence campaign will take hold already after the elections, with the request of a second referendum after that of 2014. If instead the Scottish National Party needs to form a coalition government with the Greens or even (unlikely scenario) with the support of the other small pro-independence parties “its opponents north of the border and in Westminster will argue that the independence debate is dead ”, explains the newspaper.
THE MAYOR OF LONDON
The victory of the Labor Party in London is not and has never been in question. To challenge the incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan, with a sidereal advantage in the polls (he could already win in the first round), there is the conservative candidate Shaun Bailey, which however seems to have very little – if any – chance of winning.
Kahn, we recall, is a 51-year-old lawyer, an expert in human rights. He is Muslim and has Pakistani origins. Bailey, one year younger than his rival, is instead of Jamaican origins and was a special adviser to former Premier David Cameron. Alongside them, 19 other candidates are running for mayor. In the capital there is also a vote to renew the twenty-five members of theAssembly.
THE OTHER KEY VOTES
In England, to keep an eye on to understand the future balance of the country are also the by-elections of Hartlepool and the West Midlands, Tees Valley and West Yorkshire votes. If Labor were to lose ground or emerge defeated from the polls in what are considered strongholds, the repercussions could also be high on a national scale, directly involving the leader of the party, Keir Starmer.
On the other side of the fence, attention also remains high on conservatives. According to polls, Boris Johnson's party is expected to lose a few seats in this phase of a parliamentary cycle. However, if, on the contrary, the Tories manage to maintain their position or even gain some seats, Johnson will be able to shout success, especially if he manages to take Hartlepool or West Yorkshire.
Also keep an eye on what goes on Wales, where if Labor manages to keep the same number of seats it will be considered a victory for Prime Minister Mark Drakeford, who has been appreciated in recent months for his handling of the pandemic. Instead, the Conservatives hope to reinvigorate themselves after the disappointing result of 2016, when they managed to win only 11 seats. In this context, analysts will also be looking at the results of anti-devolution candidates because support for Welsh independence and the abolition of the Senedd (Welsh Assembly) may hinge on their results.
VOTES AND RESULTS
Polling stations open at 7 am on Thursday 6 May and close at 22 pm on the same day. Many voters have already voted by mail, a feature which, together with the rules imposed to limit infections, will lengthen the counting and counting of votes. It is therefore probable that some of the most awaited results will arrive only late on Saturday evening or even Sunday morning, also because in most territories the counting of votes will only begin on Friday.
In detail, election results from Colchester, Derby, Dudley and parts of Essex could arrive on Friday, as well as those from the Hartlepool by-election and the Doncaster mayoral race. The other results could instead arrive between Friday and Saturday, especially those of Scotland, expected in the late evening of 8 May.
