The tornado Jean-Luc Mélenchon breaks into the French electoral campaign. The candidate of "La France insoumise" (rebellious France, which does not submit), an expression of the extreme left and so far a simple outsider in a race that is expected to be between Le Pen and Macron, has suddenly shot up in the polls: after long since left behind the official candidate of the socialist left, Benoit Hamon (who has already given the order to possibly vote for him in the second round), would now be undermining third place on the starting grid, occupied by the Republican François Fillon, supported by former president Sarkozy.
By now almost one in five French people (18%, against 19% for Fillon) has told pollsters that they would vote for Mélenchon: a share still far from the 24 and 23% of which the right-wing extremist are credited respectively Marine Le Pen and the liberal-progressive candidate Emmanuel Macron, and which therefore is unlikely to bring Mélenchon to the ballot, but which on the other hand is already worrying the markets. At the reopening of the markets after a weekend that saw the communist candidate – already the moral winner of the last TV debate – in great shape with a well-attended rally in Marseille, the spread between the French 70-year OAT and the German Bund shot above XNUMX basis points, gaining almost 10% as a percentage, on levels reached for the last time on February 24 of this year (on December 8, 2016 the value was around 28,5 basis points).
Mélenchon therefore, like Le Pen, garners the discontent of the angriest electorate, but with different solutions: someone sees in this potential duel the one – also theoretical – between Sanders and Trump in the USA. The program of the most leftist candidate of all is, to tell the truth, anything but a compromise: Mélenchon (like Le Pen, who however also wants a return to the franc) is intent on completely calling into question the European treaties and also to get France out of NATO. But more than his Euroscepticism (common in reality to almost all the candidates except Macron), what is worrying is the extremism in tax matters: Mélenchon does not contemplate that incomes 20 times higher than the median income are taxed at a rate lower than 100%.
Other strong measures included in the program are early retirement at age 60 (currently 62), the increase in the minimum wage (the SMIC, which is currently around 1.153 euros net per month and which Mélenchon would like to bring to 1.300 net ), the transition to 32 working hours per week from the current 35, according to the concept of "working less to work all". The leader of "La France insoumise" also preaches 100% coverage of all health care costs and the hiring of 10 public officials. All proposals that are difficult to sustain on the budget front, but which in the meantime are gaining support. It goes without saying that the markets (and the Brussels institutions), now just over 10 days after the first round, are increasingly clinging to the former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron.
