Not always local election results they anticipate national trends and this is also true this time, but to think that the June 12 vote don't have any reflected in the national political scene that would be completely wrong. It's true that many matches are thrown back to the referees June 26 ballots, which could overturn the results of the first round, and at the same time it is unlikely that last Sunday's vote could overturn the Draghi government, which no one has an interest in bringing down in the midst of a war and an economic and financial storm which, without an authoritative guide could cost Italy a lot. But, having said that, some trends are clearly emerging from the recent administrative vote.
Municipal elections: the victory of the center-right hands the leadership to Meloni
The first is that the centre-right emerges clearly strengthened, even if often divided, by the first round of municipal elections with respect to the center-left, which has lost the leadership of an important capital like Palermo and which can only hope to win Verona on the ballot with an exercise of faith. If there were votes today for the national Parliament and if, as is highly probable, the electoral law remained the Rosatellum, there is no doubt that the centre-right would win, even if it remains to be seen whether it will have the numbers to form a stable and acceptable majority both for the European chancelleries and for the markets.
The second consequence is the net overtaking by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy on Matteo Salvini's League, which, in addition to the defeat of the referendums, loses many mayors in the North, fueling more and more the party's malaise towards the Captain after his repeated skids and endless gaffes.
The flop of the 5 Stars shakes the wide field of the Democratic Party
The third consequence of the municipal vote is the sensational Five Star flop, who either didn't show up or offered a very modest electoral contribution to the allies of the Democratic Party. And the point is this: to the Pd, which is confirmed as the first party, it is better to insist on the alliance with the Five Stars – from which they are divided on essential political points such as arms for Russia and the waste-to-energy plant in Rome – or should we note that the so-called wide field mentioned by the secretary of the Democratic Party, Enrico Letta, does not take off and indeed prepares a sharp defeat in next year's general election?
In the Democratic Party, doubts are growing and perhaps many are convinced that not having tried in time to reform the electoral law proportionally, as the reformist Base proposed, was a sensational mistake. But it's too late now and that's why the push is growing in the Democratic Party from those who are pressing Letta to let go of the Five Stars to their fate and instead open the alliance to the so-called Dragons Area, composed by Action by Carlo Calenda (which enjoyed excellent electoral success) and from Italia Viva by Matteo Renzi, which held up in the municipal elections where it was present but above all is reinvigorated by the strategic intuition of creating the so-called Draghi Area.
It is too early to say how it will end, but what is certain is that this time the long wave of the municipal vote will make itself felt on the national political scene as well.
