The first question is what effect the hard defeat in will have on the PDL administrative vote. The second, closely related, is how the internal situation of Berlusconi's party will weigh on the immediate future of the Monti government. It is understandable that the first concern of Berlusconi and Alfano is to contain as much as possible the extent of the tsunami of last Sunday and Monday. And so, if the secretary says that we are facing "a defeat, but not a catastrophe", from Putin's territories the noble father even goes so far as to say that it could have been worse. It is difficult to think how, given that, as Giuliano Ferrara said, the PDL is now at risk of survival. But perhaps the Knight, taken by the Russian celebrations, will have paid particular attention to the result of Catanzaro, where the outgoing center-right mayor presents himself in the ballot with a clear advantage. But, Catanzaro aside, yesterday's defeat for the PDL was without ifs, ands or buts.
A defeat that will provoke a very agitated internal debate and probably very marked divisions, which are already palpable. On the one hand, the former AN, but not only them, who consider that yesterday's result is the result of collegial meetings between Alfano, Bersani and Casini which would have given the electorate the sensation of a sort of intelligence with the enemy. Which is why they think that the problem of supporting the Monti government is now on the agenda of problems to be tackled immediately. Alfano, for his part, reaffirms his support for Monti, but conditions it for greater attention from the premier to the demands of his party. Alfano himself, then, thinks it is no longer the case to continue the path of summits with Bersani and Casini. This thesis should also have the support of Berlusconi.
It is striking that for now none of the leaders of the PDL has wondered whether in the administrative vote there may also be a disappointment for the results of the Berlusconi government, and, perhaps, for the lack of internal democracy (of congresses there has often been talk, but few have been seen) which has so far characterized the life of the major political formation of the Italian right.
However, the question remains whether a party now in clear difficulty, according to what its own exponents say, is capable of putting the government in crisis, causing early elections, which could end dramatically for what remains of the PDL. Moreover, it seems very probable that many parliamentarians from Berlusconi's party (the Pisanu document teaches) may not follow the majority of the party in what at the moment seems to be real political suicide.
However, Alfano and Berlusconi can be satisfied with one thing: yesterday's vote also highlighted that the third pole does not break through and risks not holding. It does not break through because the results of its mayoral candidates have not been brilliant, it risks not holding because in important realities Fli and Udc have presented themselves in no particular order. And it is no coincidence that among the finances there are those who ask for a verification of the alliance.
As for the League, already in opposition, a return to the alliance with Berlusconi seems difficult. Bossi, who has been and in part has remained the point of reference for the Knight, comes out severely defeated. Given that the League loses and hard in all the municipalities of the North. With the exception of Verona, where however it was Flavio Tosi, the outgoing Maronian mayor who Bossi wanted to oust, who swept the board. The League can only start from there: without Berlusconi and probably also without Bossi.
