Is there more France or more Greece in the vote in the Italian administrative elections? If we look the results (for now partial) of the first round, the answer is that there is certainly more Greece: low turnout (even if it was not a real collapse), a lot of anti-politics (Grillo), and a widespread fragmentation, in the North as in the South. Things could change in two weeks, when (thanks to the ballots and the double round, which is increasingly popular in Italy as well) the wind from Paris could also give some air to the gasping Italian politics.
However, let's see the first indications of the vote in the first round. It was expected, but the confirmation should not be underestimated for this reason: the atypical Northern League player Flavio Tosi won hands down in Verona, perhaps even going beyond 55%. It may seem like blasphemy, but this is also a resounding raspberry to Umberto Bossi. Who a few weeks ago threatened the mayoral candidate with expulsion from the Alloy. Then things went as they did, with the Trout, the degrees and the diamonds. And Tosi was very careful not to let his head get close to Juliet's city.
It is therefore no coincidence that yesterday, commenting on the first electoral results, the Maronian Northern League Matteo Salvini, while he hoped to go to at least four ballots in the cities of the north, concluded that a resounding defeat in solitude is better than a victory in bad company. The reference was to Berlusconi et al Pdl, party almost lost in the administrative vote, as evidenced by the results of Palermo (the city of 61 to 0) where Costa, candidate of the Pdl and the Udc, is around 15%.
Yes, because also the so-called third pole, however presented in no particular order, certainly cannot score a positive result. As for the Democratic Party, it will reach the second round with its candidates well positioned to win. Complicated situation even for Bersani's party in the Sicilian capital, given that the young Ferrandelli could contain just under 50% in Orlando (IDV). with a result just over 15%. Provided that he manages to prevail over Costa.
Of course it affects the success of the candidates of the movement by Beppe Grillo. In Parma it will be the representative of 5-star Pizzarotti (over 20%) who will contest the ballot against the candidate of the Democratic Party, with a clear advantage. But even in Genoa it could be the grillino Putti (around 15%) who finishes second after a head-to-head with the centrist candidate Musso. And also in Verona the Grillino candidate went over 10%.
So far the first indications of an interlocutory vote for now. One wonders if the results will weigh on the stability of the Monti government. It will depend above all on what will be the reaction of the defeated. In particular of the PDL. Who could judge yesterday's defeat as a consequence of support for what Berlusconi's newspapers consider the government of taxes. But can a party that loses in Palermo as in Genoa and Verona really afford to go straight to early elections? He would especially spite himself.
And then Monti will have to think above all about counting (as he has already done) in relations with his new European interlocutors. In which there could be a little less Merkel and a little more Hollande. Then the accounts will be done after the ballots.
