Where will the left turn, tinged with populism and maximalism, of Pd a guide Schlein? In the aftermath of the surprising vote of the gazebo which overturns that of the members of the Democratic Party and which questions the sustainability of the model of democracy of the largest party of the left where the outsiders count more than the militants, no one can have absolute certainties and therefore the more than legitimate doubts cannot be completely erased. But since we don't live on Mars and the signals launched by Schlein in her electoral campaign are very clear, some initial considerations are legitimate. At least four can be done.
SCHLEIN EFFECT: THE MARRIAGE BETWEEN PD AND FIVE STARS IS APPROACHING
First: for the contents that the new secretary has expressed (sacrosanct fight against inequalities but without indicating with what resources, denial of the Jobs Act which has produced a million more jobs, ambiguity on pacifism which tends to forget the name of the aggressor of Ukraine) and for the alliances it has proposed (absolute ostracism a Renzi e calenda and unequivocal winks to the Five Stars) the path to an increasingly close alliance and perhaps a merger between the Pd and Five stars looks marked.
Second: it is too early to talk about splits that are never announced before making them, but it is not science fiction to imagine that the militants and leaders - and above all the voters - who have always thought of the Democratic Party as a bulwark of Italian reformism take their disappointment elsewhere the populist turn and look to the Third Pole of Calenda and Renzi as a lifeline, provided that the two leaders stop arguing and know how to imagine a credible and attractive future in view of the 2024 European elections.
SCHLEIN EFFECT MAKES MELONS SMILE
Third: it goes without saying that the growing gap between the populist and maximalist pole of the left (Pd and Cinque Stelle) and the reformist center (Third Pole and +Europe) will have, at least immediately and until 2024, the effect of reinforcing the center-right government and above all Prime Minister Giorgia Melons which has everything to gain from the left turn of the Democratic Party and the division of the opposition.
Fourth and final consideration: Italy will become more and more tripolar and will look more and more like France Macron, besieged by the populisms of The Pen e Melanchon? It is not far-fetched, even if the electoral and institutional systems are different. To crown tripolarism also in Italy - center-right on one side, Third Pole in the center, and Pd-Five Stars on the left - at least a proportional electoral law would be needed which is currently certainly not in Meloni's interest, even if the constant frictions with the Lega and with Berlusconi could tire you. Maybe. However, to say that Schlein's vagueness and fashionable slogans pave the way for the sun of the future is only to live on the moon.
