The OECD has revised its global growth estimates in the light of the extenuating tariff war, which affects the trend of corporate profits together with theunknown Brexit. In 2019-2020 world GDP will remain below the highs of the previous two years, while this year it will grow by 3,2% compared to +3,5% last year.
- Usa continue to lead the global dynamics reaching the minimum level of unemployment at 3,6%, not seen for 50 years, thanks to the more than 20 million jobs created in the last ten years and to an overall labor participation that exceeds 62% of the population.
So, now that he has emerged unscathed from the Special Prosecutor's allegations of collusion with Russia during the election campaign, Donald Trump can afford to flaunt economic successes, trying to distract the attention of the whole world from the economic effects of the trade war in China. And he does it by throwing two axes on the table: Pompeo's condescending statements on negotiations with Iran, which is in full recession and therefore more malleable; And the punishment against the Mexicans, guilty of not being able to manage Central American migrations.
Trump adviser Peter Navarro does not budge three requests: the securing of the border with Guatemala, a convincing fight against international smuggling (which has become, like migration to Europe, an extremely profitable human smuggling) and a well-organized plan for the assistance and management of asylum seekers.
Today the Mexican Minister of Economy, Graciela Marquez, is expected in Washington to try to soften the US position in view of the fateful date of June 10, when rates will be raised by 5%. on all Mexican goods imported into the US. The increase may come gradually up to 25%, making it virtually ineffective as well the latest version of NAFTA, which entered into force on October XNUMX last year under the name of Usmca (USA-Mexico-Canada Agreement). An agreement that brings together 480 million people and trade equal to 1.200 billion dollars a year. In its new version, the same intellectual property clauses that have become the subject of dispute with China have been inserted, along with "technological supremacy".
And just since last October, over 500 illegal immigrants have been arrested beyond the Mexican borders, one more problem for the new president Obrador, which already has to curb American cravings for the wall and deal with the outcome of last weekend's local elections. His National Regeneration Movement (Morena) 18 months ago defeated the parties that had always administered the country and that for 70 years have never managed to defeat corruption, malfeasance and rampant drug trafficking.
Certainly the US President leaves none of the points of his electoral agenda behind and to tell the truth, the Mexican question has become a national emergency for the United States. The mirror of a humanitarian crisis on the Latin American continent will continue to weigh on investments in the emerging countries of the area. Also for this Obrador will have to move quickly from words to deeds, above all to continue to take advantage of the momentum that the tug of war with the Chinese had given to US-Mexico trade.
