The spread at 105. The Stock Exchange resets the losses and finds the plus sign since the beginning of the year. As expected, the markets have already expressed their approval of Mario Draghi, who is starting meetings with the parties today, to then move on to the trade unions and Confindustria. A majority has not yet emerged from the abacus of the Chambers, but in the operations rooms of global finance Italy has since yesterday ranked first in the calculations of the operators, i.e. the most interesting market, because it has significant margins of progress if the mission of Super Mario. Otherwise, the financial landscape offers little new.
THE SEC MONITORS THE DAY TARDERS
The flame of day traders is extinguished, at least for now. While awaiting a summit between the Treasury and the SEC, American Consob officials know by viewing the material collected in recent days to verify if and how many crimes have been committed. Meanwhile, pending a parliamentary agreement on aid to the economy and families, the yield on bonds rises significantly.
THE COST OF MONEY RISES IN THE USA AND CHINA
The prospect of an increase in the deficit sent 30-year rates shooting up to 1,935%, to March levels; the ten-year period rises to 1,15%. Thus the time for inflation to reawaken is approaching.
The rise in the cost of money is also being felt in China, favored by the fear of a lack of liquidity on the eve of the Lunar New Year holidays. Short-term interest rates are pushed up by Banca del Popolo's parsimony in the introduction of liquidity, by choice of the authorities, concerned with limiting travel expenses and movements even with a monetary squeeze. With these premises it can be said that the February bull rally has now ended, except for the push from the quarterly reports (yesterday Alphabet +7,8%, pending Apple).
WALL STREET FLAT, ALIBABA IS MOVING
Yesterday the Wall Street indices closed essentially on parity: this morning the MSCI Asia Pacific index is down by 0,4%, after three consecutive days of large increases.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen indexes are down by 0,4%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong by 1%. Kospi of Seoul -1,4%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai -0,5%.
Alibaba climbs for the fourth consecutive day. Bloomberg wrote tonight that its investee Ant Group (700 million users) will no longer be a fintech company free to move without rules, but a financial holding company subject to capital requirements similar to those of banks. Ant's restructuring is part of a campaign by the Beijing government to increase oversight of finance and technology.
OIL ON THE RISE FOR THE FIFTH DAY
Brent oil does not stop, on the fifth consecutive day of increases: this morning the future of North Sea crude oil is up 0,5%, to 58,7 dollars, the highest price in 12 months.
SUPER MARIO MAKES THE MARKET FLY
Mario Draghi is back on track and Piazza Affari takes off, even if the feeling that is confirmed during the day the way for the formation of the new government is tortuous and full of obstacles. But Super Mario deserves the utmost trust also because "who if not him?" is the almost unanimous opinion of the financial market.
Piazza Affari thus closed with a positive performance of 2,09%, at 22.537 points, much higher than the performance of the other lists. The Eurostoxx index rises by 0,4%.
Only Frankfurt (+0,71%) and Madrid (+0,83%) recorded modest increases. Flat Paris, weak London (-0,13%). Zurich -0,22%: Switzerland rejected the AstraZeneca vaccine, denying the authorization for now due to data deemed "not yet sufficient".
SPREAD TO 105. FOR PICTET IT CAN GO DOWN TO 70/80 POINTS
But of course Draghi's challenge is played on the spread, which sounds like the thermometer of confidence in the Italian possibility of hooking up to the Recovery Plan. In this regard, the response of the markets was eloquent: the gap between the Bund (negative yield -0,47%) and the 0,58-year BTP (105%) fell to 100 basis points. UBS expects the differential to fall below 200 basis points if Draghi were to obtain the necessary support for the formation of a new government. Otherwise, states a report from the institute, the doors to early elections would open, with the spread towards XNUMX basis points.
Intermonte points out that the yield of the Italian 70-year BTP is still among the highest in Europe and it is probable that, in the new political situation, this gap will narrow further. Pictet's diagnosis is even more optimistic: in the event of the success of Draghi's mission, the convergence of the yields of Italian bonds with those of Spain is possible, with a parallel return of the spread to 80-XNUMX basis points.
MILAN CLEARS LOSSES 2021
Thanks to yesterday's jump, the FtseMib index has erased its year-to-date loss. Now the performance is positive (+1,6%) and in line with that of the rest of the Eurozone (Eurostoxx +2%).
WITH THE SIGN PLUS 37 BLUE CHIPS, POSTE LEADS THE RALLY
As many as 37 of the 40 blue chips that make up the Ftse Mib are on the rise. Financials stand out, benefiting from the violent contraction of the spread. It was a big Wednesday also for managed savings financial stocks: Poste Italiane was the champion of the day at (+7,13%), but Unipol (+5,11%), Unicredit (+4,18, 4,27%), Banca Mediolanum (+4,29%), Intesa San Paolo (+3,64%) and Banca Generali (+XNUMX%).
THE BANKS ARE RUNNING, OF THE OLD SALT STILL IN MEDIOBANCA
The progressive strengthening of Leonardo Del Vecchio in Mediobanca continues: the founder of Luxottica has raked up almost 11 million shares of Piazzetta Cuccia on the market, purchases that correspond to a further slice of 1,25% and which bring close to 13,2 % the overall share in the hands of the king of eyewear. Bank of America points out that “Italian banks have often been criticized for their exposure to government bonds, but now that the spread improves, it will be a strong driver for the sector”. Hence a possible revaluation of 30%.
ATLANTIA TAKES FLIGHT: SALE OF ASPI CLOSER
Atlantia takes off (+6,08%): the market is betting on the fact that the dossier on the sale of Aspi can now be definitively unblocked. Equita's analysts confirmed the hold rating and the target price of 16,6 euros. The Tci fund, a shareholder of Atlantia with a stake of around 10%, once again underlined that CDP's informal offer continues to underestimate Aspi, whose correct valuation "would be 11-12 billion for 88%".
The rise of CNH Industrial continues (+2,62%) after the decision to propose an annual dividend of 0,11 euros per share.
The utilities recovered: A2a +5,24%, Enel +4,29% and Snam +2,15%.
FERRARI BLACK JERSEY. IT IS SELL FOR CITI
Ferrari, on the other hand, confirms its decline, -3,65. The lack of a full-time managing director, a role currently held ad interim by John Elkann, "may represent a reason for some profit taking on the stock", explain the analysts of Mediobanca Securities, which in any case promote the results of the fourth quarter "slightly" above the consensus. The judgment of Citigroup also weighed on the stock, which reduced the recommendation from neutral to sell, with the target price falling from 198 to 160 euros. Diasorin (-1,62%) and Stm (-0,65%) also fell. Tenaris -1%.
