THE MARKETS BET ON THE YELLEN COLOMBA. DRAGHI BLESSES THE RACE OF THE EU STOCK EXCHANGES
The markets are confidently awaiting the verdict of the Fed, now in conclave to decide the strategy on rates. The signal comes loud and clear from Wall Street which closed sharply higher: Dow Jones +1,29%, S&P 500 +1,35%, Nasdaq +1,19%. Asian price lists have adapted to the trend. Tokyo rises +0,9%, pending the press conference of the governor of the Boj Aruhiko Kuroda: the central bank has already announced that it will continue its purchases on the market.
Shanghai is also at new highs, comforted by the expansionary turnaround promised by Premier Li Kequiang to support the economy. The dollar trades around 1,0550, against the euro's lows at the start of the week (1,0470). Oil is still weak, below 44 dollars a barrel.
YELLEN LESS PATIENT, BUT THE INCREASE CAN WAIT
The optimism of the US markets can be explained by the unexciting data arriving from the US economy. Both industrial production (+0,1%) and the real estate sector recorded lower-than-expected increases, thus removing the need for a rate hike, justified for now only by the strong growth in employment.
The forecast is that in tomorrow evening's final communiqué, issued at the end of the bankers' meeting, the reference to the "patience" necessary before proceeding with an increase will be dropped, but it will be reiterated that, before raising the cost of money, the Fed will wait for new signals from the economy. That is, we don't talk about it before June or September, or even later.
FOR THE PRESIDENT OF THE ECB "THE RECOVERY IS GETTING ON"
If the forecasts are respected, Janet Yellen's choices will not affect the exceptionally positive climate that reigns on the markets of the Old Continent, supported among other things by the words pronounced last night by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt.
“Many indicators – said the ECB president – suggest that a sustainable recovery is taking hold in Europe”. Business and consumer confidence, added the banker, are on the rise and growth estimates have been revised upwards. Meanwhile, "bank loans are increasing on both the demand and supply sides", thanks to the drop in crude oil prices, structural reforms and, of course, the launch of Quantitative Easing.
In the first week of QE, the ECB bought 9,751 billion euros in eurozone bonds on the secondary market in the first week of the 'quantitative easing' programme. On 13 March covered bonds were purchased for 56,947 billion and 3,754 billion of Abs.
THE DAX INDEX AT THE HIGHEST. MILAN CLOSE TO 23 THOUSAND POINTS
This framework explains the imperious surge of the European Stock Exchanges, not at all held back by the heaviness of the Oil sector (-6% in 5 days) nor by the problems of Greece. On this front too, a positive note arrived in the evening: Angela Merkel invited Alexis Tsipras to Berlin on 23 March. The Greek leader accepted.
Meanwhile, the German Stock Exchange celebrated the advance of German exports, favored by the weak euro. In Frankfurt, the Dax index rose by 2,2% and for the first time in history exceeds 12.000: since the beginning of the year it marks an increase of 24%.
Close behind is Milan, linked to the locomotive beyond the Rhine. The FtseMib index rises by 1% and closes at 22.930 points, going even beyond the 23 mark during the session (23.008,89 to be exact) for the first time since February 2011. Since the beginning of the year it marks an increase of 21%. The other markets in the Eurozone were positive, but with less emphasis: the Paris Stock Exchange advanced by 0,7%, Madrid +0,8%.
TODAY THE TREASURY IS PLACING A NEW 15-YEAR BTP
The Treasury announced the issue, already today, of the new 15-year BTP maturing on 1 March 2032. The placement will be managed by a pool of banks: Barclays, Crédit Agricole, Goldman Sachs, Monte dei Paschi di Siena and the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The declared objective is to launch a strategy of lengthening the duration of the Italian debt from the current 6 years and 7 months up to 7 years in 2015.
The first yield indications of the new 15-year BTP in March 2032 speak of 1,64%, 12 basis points above the rate of the March 2030 issue with a 3,5% coupon, which on the secondary offers a rate of 1,52%. Meanwhile, the 1,15-year bond stood at 1%, above the lows reached on Thursday (87%). The spread with the Bund fell to XNUMX basis points.
EXOR +4,6% RISES ON FCA IN THE RACE
In all of Europe the most brilliant sector is the Automotive. The Stoxx index is up 2,3%, trailed by Volkswagen and Daimler, up more than 3%.
The Fiat Chrysler stable is no less. FCA has achieved a rise of 1,28% after reaching new highs of over 16 euros in the wake of the latest statements by CEO Sergio Marchionne according to which Ferrari is worth much more than 7 billion euros and both Ford and GM are possible candidates for an aggregation with the Italian-American group. Meanwhile, according to the revelations of IHS, in February the company's European sales grew by 11%, against 7% in the sector.
The rally involved the parent company Exor, the protagonist of an increase of 4,6% to 41,56 euros. Among the other industrialists they stood out Finmeccanica +0,3% and StM + 3,5%.
THE DIVIDEND SICK WEIGHTS ON ENI. SAIPEM SUFFERS
The drop in oil prices slows down but does not affect the celebration of the Italian price list. However, the effect of the dividend cut on Eni continues -2,2%. Several brokers have revised their estimates on the six-legged dog downwards. Saipem suffers even more -4,15%. The group's new strategic plan did not include the sale of 43% of the company's capital among the 8 billion euro resignations to be made. On the other hand, the utilities are positive: Enel + 0,9% Terna + 0,2%.
FLY BPM, GREAT UNDERSTANDING
An excellent day for the banking sector despite the update of the ABI dari showing the growth of the system's non-performing loans which rose to 185,5 billion (9.3% of total loans). Accelerate Pop.Milan +3% preceded by Intesa +3,08%. They also advance Unicredit + 2,1% Banco Popular +0,5% ed Ubi + 1,4%.
In contrast, the "special remarks": Mount Paschi loses 1% on the eve of today's board meeting from which the majority list for the new top will emerge. The bank is also negative Carige.
In asset management highlighted Azimuth +2,9%: Deutsche Bank raised the target price on the stock from 25,1 to 27,4 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
THE JUBILEE BLESSES ATLANTIA. AND PUSHES LUXURY
Pope Francis also contributes to the Piazza Affari rally. The announcement of the Jubilee at the end of the year is excellent news for Atlantia +3,2% Equita Sim analysts believe the Benetton group company, owner of 100% of Adr on which Fiumicino and Ciampino depend, both the share and it could benefit more from the opening of the Holy Door at St. Peter's.
Salt, for similar reasons, too Rest +4%. The luxury stocks ready to welcome the wave of tourists also did well. Ferragamo +4,29%. Exane Bnp Paribas increased the target price from 30 to 32 euros, with an outperform rating. Moncler + 2,8% Luxottica +1,4%. Down Yoox -2,2%. Salt too sapphire +7,8%. The market has appreciated the plan to 2020 which envisages annual growth in net sales of 6%, to 1,6-1,7 billion.
THE BRICK DANCE INVOLVES IGD AND ONLINE MORTGAGES
In a report last week, Mediobanca analysts wrote that the Italian real estate sector is "out of the loop". The sharp reduction in interest rates and the timid signs of recovery in the real estate market are attracting purchases of real estate securities.
The confirmation comes from the awakening of Igd +6,4%, the Siiq of cooperatives which reached its highest level since last August at 0,9150 euros. The experts confirmed the Outperform recommendation on IGD, raising the target price to 0,96 euro from the previous 0,83 euro.
Mutuionline performed very well +9,8% at 7 euros), which continued the rally that began at the end of January, with which it went from 4,7 euros to the current 7,18 euros. On Friday with the markets closed, the group announced that it had purchased 74,85% of 7Pixel, the company that owns the Trovaprezzi.it portal.
SCUDETTO AT JUVE. BUSINESS CENTER PROMOTES LAZIO
Great leap for Juventus +5,08% after the away win in Palermo with which they booked another slice of the Scudetto. Even before last night's clashes, Piazza Affari bet on Lazio's run-up to second place +7,27%. Roma rose by 1,04%.
Complete the picture of the day the setback of fair Milano -4% after the board of directors postponed the approval of the 2014 accounts due to possible write-downs. Sales continue on Rcs -2,67%, which has lost more than 11% since the publication of the accounts on 10 March.
