The prospect of a trade war with China worries Wall Street much more than the upcoming increases in the cost of money. This is what emerges from the trend of the financial markets: positive after the "soft" statement of the Fed at the end of the work of the monetary committee, which partially halted the race of the superdollar against the euro (dropped below 1,20) and then slipped negative terrain in the face of the risk of a failure of the mission of Secretary of State Steven Mnuchin, who arrived in the Chinese capital yesterday evening to seek a way to reduce the US trade deficit (735 billion dollars). A difficult undertaking, judging by the premises: Washington threatens new stops on the import of telecommunications equipment from China. Beijing, according to the CEO of Bunge, the food trading giant, has already cut its purchases of soybeans from the US, turning to Brazil.
This framework explains the uncertainties of Wall Street and the Chinese Stock Exchanges, in contrast with the records of the European stock exchanges, galvanized by the decline of the dollar.
WALL STREET IN RED, THUD OF HONG KONG
The Chinese stock markets were weak this morning: the blue chip index, the Csi 300, is hovering around its eight-month low. The stock markets of Singapore (-1,5%) and Taipei (-1%) also fell. The worst stock exchange is that of Hong Kong (-1,7%).
Wall Street also closed down: Dow Jones and S&P500 both -0,72%, Nasdaq -0,41%.
MUSK SNOBES ANALYSTS: 2 BILLION LESS PER TESLA
Apple's race continued (+4,4%), supported by the announcement of a 100 billion buyback, an operation made possible by Trump's tax cuts. According to Bloomberg, US corporations could buy back shares for about 800 billion dollars, equal to the entire value of Piazza Affari.
The markets were held back by the collapse of Paypal (-14%) under the pressure of Amazon's new payment channel. Snap -17,1% after accounts.
Tesla plunged after meeting with analysts Elon Musk, who refused to answer questions. The stock fell 4,5%: the refusal cost the CEO 2 billion dollars.
US RATES WILL RISE ON JUNE 13TH
The release of the monetary committee of the Fed did not hold particular surprises. The necessary notation that inflation has approached the target was balanced by the expectation that it will remain around current levels and by the disappearance, in the text, of the part in which it was observed that the macro picture had strengthened in recent months. The market is assuming a quarter point hike at the June 12/13 summit.
EXPORT RECORD FOR TEHERN BEFORE THE SANCTIONS
Oil slightly down: Brent down slightly to 73,2 dollars a barrel after the unexpected increase in US inventories. The markets are awaiting US decisions on the treaty with Iran, ahead of the May 12 deadline. Trump seems ready to denounce the agreement but the modalities are not clear. Meanwhile, it emerges that Tehran's exports rose in April to their all-time highs: 2,6 million barrels per day, the first customers being China and India.
Among the oil companies in Piazza Affari Tenaris shines (+3,5%), at its highest levels for about a year: Kepler Chevreux has raised the target price to 13,5 euros from 13 euros, confirming the 'hold' opinion. Eni (+0,7%) and Saipem (+1,1%) were also positive.
Apple's record accounts and the ghost of tariffs which (for now) are moving away from Europe push the stock exchanges of the Old Continent, which all close in positives.
The FtseMib index (+1,3% to 24.262 points) closed the first session of May with a strong increase, marking the highest value since October 2009, reaching a maximum of 24.305 points during the session.
PIAZZA AFFARI CANCEL THE YEARS OF THE CRISIS
The year-to-date performance of the FtseMib improves to +11%, in the same period the Eurostoxx index rose by a modest +1,4%, while the Frankfurt Dax recorded a loss of 1%.
It is interesting to note that, after years of below-average returns, 2018 could represent the turning point for the blue chips of Piazza Affari, also making a comeback on Milanese stocks with lower capitalization.
The other European stock exchanges are also in tune, in particular the Frankfurt Dax rises by 1,5%. Madrid (+1,01%) also did well, with more modest increases in London (+0,3%) and Paris (+0,2%).
TRABATTONI (KAIROS): "THIS IS WHY THE RALLY CAN CONTINUE"
How to explain the state of grace of Piazza Affari? Massimo Trabattoni, head of equity for Italy at Kairos, sees it this way: "The recent outperformance of the Italian market is the result of the composition of our list, which in fact presents a mix of important weights of financial stocks and oil stocks, while cyclicals have a weight much lower than in other markets. In this scenario, therefore, the Italian stock exchange performs better than others where the cyclical component is heavier, such as the Dax for example. And this despite the political uncertainty that risks dragging on for a few more weeks. Right now the political question does not represent a significant variable, and I would not even consider it a risk factor. Even if we were to have a caretaker government, either of the President or of large alliances pending new elections ”.
At the beginning of the year, the Italian economy maintained the same cyclical growth rate observed in the last three months of 2017, despite the zero contribution from industry anticipated by the production numbers, which sounded like alarm bells leading to fears of a slowdown in GDP Second the preliminary data released by Istatbetween January and March, GDP grew by 0,3% on a quarterly basis, replicating the expansion observed in the previous quarter.
In March the unemployment rate is stable at 11%. The unemployment rate in the 15-24 age group, i.e. the incidence of unemployed young people on the total number of those employed or looking for work, rose to 31,7% from 32,5% (revised) in February, reaching the lowest since December 2011.
ELECTIONS LONGER, THE SPREAD GOES DOWN
With snap elections now averted, the secondary market has rallied since Monday. The yield differential between the Italian and Spanish 49-year bonds stood at 30 basis points from the maximum reached on 52 April at XNUMX basis points.
The spread with the Bund decreased to 121 points for a ten-year yield of 1,79%. The market's response to the offer of 2,476 million German Bobl (two-year bonds) yesterday was tepid. The five-year was awarded with a yield up to -0,04% from -0,10%. Today France (medium/long-term bonds for 8,5 billion) and Spain (4,5 billion) are taking the field.
INDUSTRY IN FLIGHT: STM AND BREMBO SUPERSTAR
The 40 shares that make up the FtseMib rose almost all. Two industrial stocks led the way: Stm and Brembo.
Stm (+4,5%) took off after the publication of Apple's accounts. "In 2017 - notes Equita sim - Apple was the first customer of the Italian-French company, representing 10,5% of turnover". Tonic throughout the European technology sector (+1,16%).
Brembo (+5,63%) shines on a positive day for the European automotive sector (+1,89%) which breathes a sigh of relief at the postponement of the entry into force of US duties on steel and aluminium. The markets are betting on the group's quarterly to be released next week.
FCA STARTS AGAIN IN THE USA BUT BRAKES IN ITALY. TODAY THE FERRARI ACCOUNTS
With the Stock Exchange closed, the Italian data on car registrations in April were disclosed: +6,47% compared to a year ago, recovering from the decline in March.
Positive day also for Fiat Chrysler (+2,48%) which on Tuesday announced a 5% growth in US car sales in April against a contracting market (-4,5%). In particular, Jeep sales shone: +20% on the same period of the previous year.
In Italy, on the other hand, the FCA group recorded a 2018% drop in registrations in April 2,1 compared to a year ago, to almost 46 vehicles. The group's market share in Italy stands at 26,8%. The Ferrari council (+3,63%) is scheduled for today.
Among the banks, Banco Bpm (+2%) stood out: there are several subjects interested in its non-performing loans to be disposed of. Understanding +0,4%, Unicredit -0,2%.
NEW RECORD FOR MONCLER, UTILITIES SUFFER
Telecom Italia recovers: + 2,32% to 0,8372 euros in view of the meeting on May 4th. On April 10, the stock was worth 0,8802 euros.
In luxury, a new historic record for Moncler (+1,5%). Ferragamo +1,4%. Recordati also leaps forward (+4%). The utilities are negative: A2A and Italgas show losses of around 1%.
IN THE SALINI “L'AMERICANA” RALLY, TONICA ASTALDI
Off the main index, Salini Impregilo (+9,35%) continued the run that began on Monday with the announcement of the appointment of Goldman Sachs as adviser for the evaluation of strategic alternatives for the Plants & Paving division of Lane and the possible listing on Wall Street.
Astaldi was also toned with an increase of 5,69%. Amplifon closed up 2,77% on the results day. Ternienergia rebounds by 11,75% after the recent heavy losses.
