The oil effect vanishes in just one day. Suddenly the specter of a systemic crisis, triggered by the collapse of Deutsche Bank, returns to frighten. Last night, with European markets already closed, a Bloomberg article citing a bank document claimed that ten hedge funds withdrew cash and collateral from the German institution, moving their operations to other intermediaries.
The news sparked fears in financial markets. Pressure is growing for state intervention in support of Deutsche Bank, but Berlin is holding out for now. Meanwhile, the bank's shares, traded during the day in Frankfurt with a gain of one percentage point, lost 7% on Wall Street.
The US bank stocks index dropped 1,4%. Wells Fargo (-1,67%) under fire, hit by the scandal of bogus current accounts. Citigroup (-1,77%) and JP Morgan (-1,47%) also lost hits.
The New York Stock Exchange accelerated downwards: Dow Jones -1,07, S&P 500 and Nasdaq -0,93%. The yield on the 6-year T bond fell by 1,54 points, to 2,2%. The decline continued this morning in Asia. The Tokyo Stock Exchange (-5,5% in September, +1,6% in the quarter ending today) dropped by 50% this morning. The Asia Pacific and Sidney index are down by one percentage point. The Chinese stock markets were also weak despite a positive signal from the PMI index, which returned above XNUMX, the frontier between crisis and expansion.
A difficult start is also expected for Europe: futures on the Dax, the main index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, report a drop of 1,5%. The American landslide of the German Bank overshadowed other no less relevant news which contributed to raising the level of market volatility.
OIL, HOLDING THE RISE. TENAUS BOOM IN MILAN
After Wednesday's leap on the Nymex, the flame of oil has died down: Brent falls by 0,5% to 48,43 dollars a barrel, West Texas -0,1% to 47,01 dollars. After the initial euphoria for the Algiers agreement on production cuts (made possible by Saudi Arabia's change of strategy), the market took note that the distribution of the new quotas among the producers was foreseen only at the meeting in Vienna on 30 November. The agreement will then have to be extended to non-OPEC countries. Russia's repeatedly declared availability is out of the question, but US shale oil remains unknown: Texas and Oklahoma oil companies can't wait to resume pumping from underground when prices steadily rise above $50.
Sector stocks are slowing down in the USA: Exxon -0,5%, Chevron - 0,7% (yesterday +3,2%). The Stoxx Oil sector index rose 4,3% with Total up 4,1%. Eni gained 4,6%, Saipem +5,4%, Tenaris +9,3%. The oil-related mid caps are also highlighted: Trevi +4,7%, Maire Tecnimont +4,3%.
LOCKHART(FED): RATES INCREASING ALREADY IN NOVEMBER
The US GDP figure for the second quarter was revised upwards: +1,4% against the first estimate of +1,1%. This increases the probability of a rate hike, perhaps as early as November, a week after the elections. “Conditions are right for an interest rate hike at an upcoming meeting,” Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Dennis Lockhart said, hinting that the meeting scheduled for early November could be the right time. Lockhart explained that "we must continue to reinforce the idea that the November meeting is live", ie open to any possibility, and stressed that with regard to rate hikes "it is not a question of if but when".
BARCLAYS CUTS APPLE: SLOW DOWN PHONE 7
The slowdown of Apple contributed to accentuating the negative trend of the market, which lost 1,6% after Barclays announced that it had removed the Apple stock from the list of Top Picks among companies operating in IT Hardware. The recommendation remains Overweight and the target price is reduced to $114 from $115. According to analyst Mark Moskowitz, Apple's stock performance could become "bumpy" in the short term, after the brilliant rise that saw the stock gain 23% in the last three months. The Barclays report mentions possible difficulties in procuring the components of the new iPhone7, and raises the doubt that the enthusiasm shown by consumers could run out in the coming months: in fact, estimates on the growth of the global smartphone market are slowing down from +3,7% to +2,6%.
COMMERZBANK CUTS 10 THOUSAND SEATS. INFLATION IN ITALY TODAY
The tensions unleashed in the evening only touched yesterday's European session, supported by the performance of oil stocks. Milan, after reaching an intraday high of 16.506 points during the day, slowed down in the final closing at 16.339 points, up 0,7%. Paris (+0,3%), Madrid (+0,6%) and London (+1%) were also on positive ground, while Frankfurt lost 0,3%. It was not Deutsche Bank, which rose slightly before last night's storm, that influenced the German Stock Exchange, but the announcement of Commerzbank's new 2020 business plan, which provides for a 20% cut in the workforce, about 10.000 jobs, the merger of two divisions and suspension of dividend distribution for the current year.
German inflation rose to 0,5% in September, the highest since May last year, while Spanish inflation returned positive for the first time since May 2014. Increases are also expected from data arriving today from Italy and France.
BTP ITALIA RETURNS: THE SECURITY (EIGHT YEARS) ON OFFER FROM OCTOBER 17
The Treasury has announced the launch of the new Btp Italia, with a duration of eight years, which will be offered between 17 and 20 October next. The guaranteed minimum real coupon for the new issue will be communicated to the public on Friday 14th. The first phase, reserved for retail, is scheduled for 17th to 19th October (with the option to reduce the offer period to just two days); the demands of retail savers will be fully satisfied. The second phase, reserved for institutional students, will take place only on the morning of Thursday 20.
The rate on the ten-year BTP closed yesterday at 1,23%. The spread with the Bund fell to 134 points: on Tuesday it had risen to its highest level since the beginning of July by 141 basis points. Yesterday the Treasury placed 8,5 billion five-year and ten-year BTPs and Ccteu. Yields for both the five-year and the ten-year bonds rose slightly from the historic lows reached in the auctions at the end of August.
FERRARI, SOLD OUT FOR THE 1,86 MILLION CAR
The positive note for Europe came from the Automobile sector on the day of the opening of the Paris show. Fiat Chrysler rose by 1,1%, Cnh Industrial +1,6%, Volkswagen +0,8%. Ferrari +0,11% after having scored a new all-time high of €46,23 during the day. At the Paris Motor Show, the Maranello company presented the new Ferrari Aperta, a 960 horsepower spider that is being produced in 209 units, 200 of which have already been sold at a price (taxes included) of 1,86 million euros. Sales head Enrico Galliera said Ferrari would produce another 350 special-edition cars to celebrate the company's 488th anniversary next year, all of which have already been sold. Galliera added that sales are going very well in all markets. The waiting list for models like the 12 GTB is between 24 and XNUMX months.
UBI ONE STEP FROM THE GOOD BANKS. MONDADORI BALZO
Nervous day for bank stocks. Monte Paschi closes fractionally lower (-0,9%). Unicredit also down (-0,4%). Bpm and Banco Popolare are on positive ground. Ubi (-2,8%) instead paid the price for the possible next purchase of the good banks in the hands of the Treasury. Di Equita sim analysts assume a valuation of 348 million euros and recognition of badwill (1,1 billion). Ubi's Cet1 would fall from 11,4% to 10,9% to recover by 2017 to 11,6%. Equita does not exclude that Ubi considers a capital increase of 300-400 million euros.
Mondadori leap forward (+6,8%), after the sale by the subsidiary Rizzoli Libri of Bompiani to Giunti Editore. The total consideration for the transaction is equal to 16,5 million euros.
Leonardo Spa is slightly below parity (-0,4%). Equita Sim, which confirmed the buy recommendation on the stock and the target price of 14 euros, defined the launch of a new phase for the European Drone dedicated to surveillance and defense missions as important.
Leone Film stands out in Aim (+3,75%), which celebrated the publication of the results for the first half year: profit (1,4 million) up 180%, turnover (31,9 million) up 337 %.
