La demography of Italy is characterized by “extreme, record-breaking, exceptional” levels for at least six reasons: age structure, low fertility, long transition of young to adulthood, strong family ties, long lifespan, rapid growth of the foreign population. This is what emerges from a recent analysis by the Italian Association for Population Studies presented on Thursday at Cnel.
In particular, according to the analysis, the exceptionality of Italian demography is mainly linked to births. The historic low reached in 2020 with 404 births is only the extreme result (caused by Covid) of a trend that has been going on for some time now. Globally, the trend in births over the last 26 years can be divided into two periods, each of which sees Italy in an extreme position:
- the first phase is that of the recovery, which, starting from the world record low of 1995 (1,19 children per woman), characterizes Italy until the 2011-2012 recession, with a peak of 1,46 children per woman In 2010;
- in the following period, which scholars call a "time of uncertainty", a decline almost mirrors the previous recovery, with a new low in 2019 (1,27 children per woman in the world, 1,18 in Italy).
“It is no coincidence that the size of the family is unequivocally associated with risk of poverty, especially in our country – explains Cecilia Tomassini, councilor of Cnel and vice president of Aisp – Family behaviors are changing, but Italian welfare remains exceptional, in a negative sense, in its inability to support large families”.
At the same time, Italy has recorded a significant increase in life expectancy at birth, who had come close to breaking the world record before the pandemic, surpassing 83 in 2018.
However, in recent years, Italy's demographic balance has not been so much supported by the longevity of its inhabitants as by the increase inimmigration. The study shows that the "migration balance", i.e. the difference between immigrants and emigrants over the course of a year, went from negative to positive in the 90s and hasn't changed since then. On the contrary: during the last twenty years the foreign population residing in our country has increased fourfold, reaching 8,8% of the total as of January 2020, XNUMX.
Finally, the report underlines that Italy is also characterized by the absence of policies aimed at the new generations. "The weakness of welfare towards young Italians has made them not only more vulnerable, but also more discouraged than their European peers in looking for a job in their own country", he reads.
“Together with the level of education, age and generation of belonging, another important factor that generates inequalities within the Italian population is the place where one is born and where one grows up. The Italian territory is exceptionally heterogeneous: in addition to the historic North-South divide, for some decades reference has also been made to the central-periphery divide, with municipalities that attract, municipalities that remain stagnant and municipalities that lose in demographic terms”.
