2024 GDP growth of 1%, rising debt and confirmed deficit. These are the numbers contained in the so-called Def light approved by the Council of Ministers this morning after an hour of meeting together with the legislative decree on indirect taxes (with the exception of VAT) which brings significant innovations in terms of inheritance and gift taxes. The Economic and Financial Document, as anticipated, contains trend data, but not the usual programmatic framework, i.e. the data and figures necessary to evaluate what effects the measures launched by the Meloni government have had. The reason? The new Stability Pact which revises the calendar and the form of the documents to be presented to the EU: "in the current phase - explains Palazzo Chigi - there are still no operational indications on how the Plan should be set up", and has therefore "been agreed upon European level the possibility of suspending old procedures to avoid emptying the political act of content".
“The deadline for the presentation of the new Def, the fiscal structural program, is set for September 20, but it is our intention to present it even earlier, when all the elements will be available, starting from the technical trajectory” scheduled for the “half of the month June from the EU,” he said the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti in the press conference following the meeting. “This Def takes into account the decisions and the revolution in fiscal budget rules at European level. The implementing provisions and instructions for building the route are missing,” he recalled. However, the opposition arises and underlines that it is the first time that a non-outgoing Government has not provided indications on how the country's economic policy will go.
Def numbers: GDP +1% in 2024, the Superbonus increases the debt
Those contained in the Def, the Government says, are numbers “as realistic as possible, not inflated nor too cautious", net of the "volatile" international economic situation due to ongoing conflicts.
In detail, in 2024 Italian GDP will grow by 1%, 0,2% less than what was foreseen in the Nadef. Growth will then be 1,2% in 2025, 1,1% in 2026 and 0,9% in 2027. These are "very complicated forecasts to make for a complicated international and geopolitical framework", he said. the minister clarified.
Ascending parable for the already very high Italian public debt, forecast at 137,8% this year, to 138,9% in 2025 and 139,8% in 2026. In the programmatic framework indicated in the Nadef in the autumn the debt progressively decreased from 140,1% in 2024 to 139,9% in 2025, up to 139,6% of 2026. What is pushing the debt upwards are “the cash implications of the Super bonus in the next few years" but after 2026 "it would begin to decline", underlined Giorgetti.
Il deficit it is instead confirmed at 4,3% for this year, ensuring Italy a procedure for "excessive deficit", admits the Minister of Economy, but will fall to 3,7% next year, the 3% requested by Europe in 2026 and 2,2% in 2027.
As regards consumer prices, at the press conference the number one of the Mef said: "Inflation has now reached very low levels, lower than the European average: we are below 2%, 1,6% in 2024, 1,9% in 2025 and 2026. This means that for Italy we are at levels that would justify decisions by the ECB to ease the on the interest rate front."
Giorgetti: “Priority wedge cut, if necessary we will intervene again with the super bonus”
“The tax relief that expires in 2024, we absolutely intend to replicate it in 2025, this is the real objective we set ourselves when we define the structural program", said Giorgetti in the press conference. “When the budget law is passed, forms will be found to confirm” the decontribution, he added, “because it is the number one priority."
The number one of the MEF then responded to a question on the superbonus: "I want to report exactly the programmatic objectives of the Nadef, the projection for 2025 and 2026: if necessary we will intervene further on the legislative decree currently being examined by Parliament”.
On the superbonus “now let's draw a line, we have the definitive data. What doesn't stop now – continued Giorgetti – is the verification and checking the validity of these debts deriving from the superbonus, which has already led, to date, to approximately 16 billion in credits canceled and seized for various reasons. This verification operation regarding the validity of all these credits claimed, or declared as such, by the State will continue and I believe it is one of the most important parts of thetax assessment and audit operation what we need to do this year."
“Obviously at the ministry we are thinking about how we can further move in the direction of spending cuts. We did not hope for the disaster of the super bonus even though I think I have mentioned it here several times. This complicates the picture, honestly,” she added.
The cut in personal income tax was also discussed at the press conference, with deputy minister Maurizio Leo stating: “We will see how many resources will arrive from the biennial preventive agreement. If they are sufficient, we will expand the cut of Irpef also for the middle class".
Giorgetti on the extension of the Pnrr
Responding to the EU Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentiloni, who this morning defined the 2026 deadline of the Pnrr as "fixed", Giorgetti stated: "I am the Minister of Economy, Gentiloni is the Commissioner, Lagarde is the governor of the central bank : can I express my wish, is it blasphemy? Among fellow ministers we all tell each other this, the commission remains firm, who knows, maybe the next one will evaluate differently". “I have already brought the proposal, they advise me not to insist, but instead I insist but since the Pnrr was approved a war has broken out in Europe, perhaps someone hasn't noticed", he continued.
