In 2020 the Italian GDP will collapse by 8%, recording losses of 126 billion euros compared to 2019. The government writes it in the new Economic and Financial Document (Def), approved on Friday in the early afternoon after a meeting of the Council of Ministers that lasted almost three hours. The government's estimates are worse than the widespread ones from the Prometeia study centre, but more optimistic than those of the IMF.
As for the 2021, the government expects a 4,7% rebound in GDP. But that is not certain: if a new wave of infections arrives in the absence of a vaccine, the recovery will only begin in the second quarter of next year and by the end of the year, GDP growth "would be equal to only 2,3%". The recovery of the loss recorded in 2020 would therefore arrive in 2022.
Il deficit this year it will reach 10,4% of GDP, before falling back to 5,7% in 2021.
Il debt it should instead settle at 155,7% this year and 152,7% at the end of 2021.
Together with the Def, the government is asking Parliament to authorize one budget variance equal to 55 billion for this year and 24,6 billion for 2021. This is the money needed to fully cover the April decree, which will see the light next week and should be worth around 100 billion.
Finally, the executive cancel the VAT safeguard clauses from 2021: the idea is to absorb and then cancel the clause once and for all, also to give a signal of stability of the public finances to the financial markets.
“If the black swan of the epidemic crisis had not materialized – reads the draft of the Def -, the Italian economy could have recorded a gradually improving growth rate in the current year. This recovery would have led to a modest expansion in the first quarter of the year, making the annual growth forecast of 0,6 percent formulated in the Nadef of September 2019 achievable".
