The structural budget balance will slide once again. According to the Radiocor agency, the programmatic framework contained in the Economics and Finance Document which this evening will be approved by the Council of Ministers does not envisage a structural balance (cyclically adjusted) to zero in 2015, as expected so far, but only in 2016.
The structural deficit was forecast at 0,3% of GDP this year, with a correction already deemed by Brussels to be insufficient and lower than required (around 0,1-0,2 points). The nominal deficit/GDP ratio will be revised to 2,6% from 2,5% for 2014 and 1,8% in 2015.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is also worsening, at least for this year, due to the payment of public administration debts (another 20 billion since October), even if Parliament's go-ahead will be needed on this point.
Finally, a downward revision is also on the way for 2014 GDP growth: the 1,1% estimated last year by the Letta government will be reduced to 0,8%, a figure above both the +0,7% expected by Brussels and the main statistical institutes (including Istat), and the +0,6% indicated by the International Monetary Fund in forecast released today.
