After days of rumors, confirmation has arrived. Crédit Agricole has increased its stake in Banco BPM to 29,3%., officially entering the second half of the Italian banking game. A game that's getting busier by the day.
Crédit Agricole: "We are long-term investors."
Banque Verte notified the Italian regulator and the Italian stock exchange that it has exceeded 25% of the capital, reaching 29,3%, close to the 30% threshold beyond which a takeover bid would be triggered. In a statement, the French group specified that the additional stake includes shares and derivatives.
Agricole points out that it has “a long-term presence and deeply rooted in the Italian market" and to remain committed "to supporting the country's economy." Elsewhere, the French group emphasizes that the increased stake is "consistent with Banco BPM's strategy as a long-term investor and partner." This statement could be a hidden message to potential suitors, as if to say, "Crédit Agricole is here and intends to stay."
At the same time, the statement states, this move "strengthens the solid industrial partnership in consumer credit" and the insurance sector and "highlights appreciation for the qualities of Banco BPM."
Taking advantage of Unicredit's retreat, forced by the government to withdraw its offer with the application of a harsh golden power, Crédit Agricole has increased its stake in Banco BPM from 9% to 29,3% over the past year and a half, without encountering any obstacles or interference from the government. It currently has four board members, two statutory auditors, and the chairmanship of the Risk and Credit Committee.
Crédit Agricole enters the game of risk, while Unicredit waits. For how long?
The new move by Crédit Agricole, which had already received the green light from the ECB to increase its stake in the Bank to 29,9%, marks its official entry into the second phase of the Italian banking game, in which Banco BPM was already a protagonist, with the proposal of a marriage between equals presented to MPS, then surpassed within a few hours by the huge offer of 30,6 launched by Intesa Sanpaolo, also for Siena. But above all, the increase in participation means that anyone with designs on Banco will be forced to sit down at a table with Banque Verte, not to mention that possible marriages with Crédit Agricole Italy, hypothesized last year and then ended up in a drawer.
Meanwhile, the additional subscription period for the offer launched by ended on Friday at midnight. Unicredit on CommerzbankAnd many are wondering whether CEO Andrea Orcel might now decide to turn his attention back to Italy. If Intesa's bid for MPS-Mediobanca is successful, Piazza Gae Aulenti will lose ground in the domestic market, moving away from Italy's leading bank (Intesa) and ceding second place to the new BPER-MPS combination. And this is why the market has once again begun speculating about a possible resurgence of Banco BPM, which, among other things, would be blessed by the government this time.
In fact, in the last few weeks it would have happened a rapprochement between Andrea Orcel and the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, also thanks to the olive branch waved by the banker with the decision to withdraw the appeal to the Council of State against the golden power and the clarification of the State Attorney's Office on the fact that "Unicredit does not represent a threat to national security." Last year, the League secretary Matteo Salvini went so far as to refer to Unicredit as a "foreign bank." But now that a foreign bank (for real), Crédit Agricole holds almost 30% of Piazza Meda between stocks and derivatives, and that the project of the third pole so much dear to the executive could have been definitively shelved by the offer of Intesa Sanpaolo (and Unipol) for MPS, the scenario is radically different.
According to the Sheet, last week there would have been a contact between Giorgetti and OrcelThe topic of the conversation, reports the newspaper directed by Claudio Cerasa, would have been precisely the future Banco BpmUnlike what happened a year ago, today the minister may no longer have any objections to the potential merger between the two banks; on the contrary, the traffic light has changed from fiery red to hopeful green.
We'll now have to figure out what Orcel, who a few days ago called himself "just an observer" of the banking game, intends to do. Having put the friction with the Executive behind him, the head of Piazza Gae Aulenti will have to negotiate with Banco BPM CEO Giuseppe Castagna (assuming, after Giorgetti, he too has changed his mind about Unicredit), but above all he will have to sit down and negotiate with the French Agricole, with whom relations are far from relaxed, especially considering Piazza Gae Aulenti's decision to halve the assets under management at AmundiThe two banks are also competing in Southern Italy, both having presented a non-binding offer for Banca del Mezzogiorno.
