“If you think things can't get any worse than this, trust me, you're wrong. They can be worse and it will be if we don't change course with the vote". So Michelle Obama in Milwaukee tonight launched the challenge to Donald Trump in a surreal atmosphere, given the absence of an audience. But the announcement of a ferocious duel was confirmed by the intervention of John Kasich, former governor of Ohio. “I have been a Republican all my life, but this takes second place to the responsibility I have towards my country,” he said, announcing his support for Biden.
The electoral debate is felt on the markets. The dollar continues to lose ground, weighed down by the mortgage of record bond issues. But the flight of the Nasdaq also continues, setting a new record. Gold shines again, silver even more. In general, a climate of uncertainty reigns on the markets, waiting for central banks to get back into action, more important than ever in such a delicate political situation. The leaders of the Central Bank of the United States may have already spoken in the last meeting of the possibility of tolerating a higher level of inflation in the future than what had been accepted in the past evening, in order to prolong the recovery period of the economy . It so happens that at this juncture today in Rimini we see Mario Draghi again.
AGAINST ASIA, NEW US VETO IN HUAWEI
Asian stock markets contrasted this morning. The Nikkei of Tokyo and the Kospi of Seoul are down (-1,4%). Modest increases for the Hong Kong Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite. The positive changes on the Australian and Indonesian stock exchanges were larger.
Tonight's move by the White House against Huawei, which is limited in its ability to purchase the chips it needs to run its telephone networks and devices, has had no repercussions on the financial markets.
In addition to the Nasdaq record, the S&P 500 index rose (+0,27%). The Dow Jones slows down (-0,31%). Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for the second half of the year, raising its target for the S&P3.600 to 500 points, almost 7% above current levels, very close to all-time highs.
ALSO ORACLE HUNTING FOR TIK TOK
There was another leap from Tesla (+11%) and a new record from Nvidia (+5%), in another tech-led session. In the sector, there is increasing interest in TikTok: the Financial Times writes this morning that Oracle would step forward, along with a consortium of Californian investors, for ByteDance's US, Australian and New Zealand businesses.
OIL STABLE BUT CLOSE TO THE MAXIMUM
Gold purchases continued during the night. The precious metal of reference is approaching the 2.000 mark.
WTI-grade oil was down 0,4% to $42,7 a barrel, near a five-month high, on the eve of the release of weekly US crude inventories data. Bloomberg expects another decline, the fourth in a row. Meanwhile, confirmations are arriving of China's intentions, increasingly active in purchasing. The research firm Vortexa estimates that seven super tankers will sail fully loaded from the Gulf of Mexico within days, to go and unload about 14 million of Texan oil in some Chinese port.
THE STRONG EURO IS HOLDING DOWN EUROPE. TODAY ON THE FIELD MARIO DRAGHI
Weak start to the week for the European stock exchanges, held back by the strength of the euro, at 1,1899, still on the rise after eight consecutive weeks of gains. Bullish leveraged positions on the euro have reached their highest since March of last year. The decline in the dollar favored the return to the highs of precious metals (silver more than gold). Today Mario Draghi takes the field, who has to open the Rimini Friendship Meeting, the queen of summer, orphan of discos, just to remind us that the emergency is far from over.
MILAN SLIPS BELOW 20 THOUSAND POINTS
Once again Milan failed to defend the 20 mark. The index (-0,39%) closed at 19.950 points.
In the rest of Europe, Frankfurt (+0,11%) and Paris (+0,18%) are positive: Lvmh is up 0,3% after Jefferies promoted the stock to “buy”. Liquor maker Pernod Ricard gained 1,8% after Barclays upgrade to overweight. London +0,62%.
Frankfurt +0,11%. Germany has declared almost all of Spain, including the island of Mallorca, a region at risk following the spike in cases recorded in the country. Madrid -0,94%.
GOLDEN BUSINESS IN THE CITY. BUFFETT AND PAULSON IN THE MINES
London +0,62%. European mining industries gained 1,4% after stock markets in China, the world's biggest consumer of metals, were boosted by a new aid package from the central bank. Even more important was the effect of the purchases on Barrick (+9%) after it emerged on Friday evening that Warren Buffett had bought 20,9 million shares of the mining company, equal to 1,2% of the capital. Another Wall Street financier, John Paulson, has also invested in Barrick. Newmont Corporation also rose: +4%.
TOURISM WALKERS, BUT THE G7 IS LESS PESSIMIST
A completely different climate in the world of tourism. European tour operator TUI loses 5,37%; the cruise operator Carnival 3,7%. British Airways owner IAG is giving up 5,7%.
The global economic scenario is less pessimistic than expected, according to the G7 finance ministers meeting in video conference. This can be read in a tweet from the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri.
THE RACE FOR BTP CONTINUES, SPREAD TO 139
Bond yields worldwide are falling again, starting with the United States Treasury Note: the 0,67-year bond falls to 3%, - 0,93 basis points. Out of sympathy, the Btp is also appreciated, at 5% yield, -XNUMX basis points.
The spread ends below 140 basis points, at 139, while the August 2030 benchmark slips to 0,938.
SALA AT THE GUIDE OF TIM? THE MAYOR OF MILAN THINKS ABOUT IT
The Milan stock exchange, the weakest in Europe, was mainly affected by the worsening of banking stocks, Leonardo (-1,9%) and Telecom Italia (-2,5%) at the center of the political debate on the future of the network in sight of Tim's board at the end of the month, in which a memorandum of understanding with the government could be announced to start negotiations on the single network, and the reservations on the operation with KKR could be lifted.
The daily Fatto publishes a tasty gossip: the recent meeting between the mayor of Milan, Beppe Sala, and Beppe Grillo, would not have had the next municipal elections as the topic of discussion, but the mayor's desire to lead the new Tim that would arise if the plan to split the telephone company in two, repeatedly advocated by the guarantor of the M5s, would go through.
FROM THE MORATORIUM ON LOANS A SHIELD AGAINST DEFAULTS
The index of Italian banks drops 1,25%. The heaviest drops were recorded by Banco Bpm and Popolare di Sondrio, with drops of more than 2%. Mediobanca -1,68%.
Il August decree provides for the extension of the moratorium on loans and mortgages from 30 September 2020 to 31 January 2021 (31 March 2021 for companies in the tourism sector). At the end of July 2020, requests for a moratorium amounted to €298 billion. The extension is expected to slow the increase in the default rate of banks, which have increased provisions in anticipation of the effects of COVID-19.
Among the financials, we also note the sharp decline of Generali -1,9%, the Unipol group was also negative
ON DIASORIN AND STM ON THE WAVE OF GREAT DEALS
The echo of some international operations supported the price list. Diasorin +4,29% following Sanofi's acquisition of Principia Biopharma (+9,38%) for 3,7 billion. Stmicroelectronics +1,62% behind Nvivia (+6,68% on the Nasdaq pending the results).
THE EXOR WALLET SHINES, UNDER THE TONE OF FCA ACQUITTED IN THE USA
Exor +1,05%. The profits from investments made in gold and palladium mines play in favor of the Agnelli holding company, as well as the good performance of the stake in Schlumberger, the oil services giant in which Exor recently entered.
CNH Industrial (-0,34%) and FCA (-0,41%) down after District Judge Borman rejected GM's second attempt to prove it was harmed in labor cost negotiations due to bribes paid from the Italian-American group to the Uaw union. Ferraris +1,68%.
Moncler did well (+0,21%). Jefferies has improved the target price. Ferragamo drops 1,9%.
AN ORDER FROM TEXAS FOR DANIELI. ROME, THE FRIEDKIN ERA BEGINS
In the rest of the list, Danieli stands out (+1,66%), after the company announced a new order from the Texan group Cmc for a new steel plant in Arizona,
AS Roma is still on a roller coaster, up by more than 14% to 0,35 euro, above the price of the Friedkin group's tender offer at 0,1165 euro per share. With the completion of the financial transactions for the purchase of 86% of the club for 591 million, Friedkin is officially the new president of Roma.
