Cornered by Matteo Renzi's drumming offensive, which also reflects the discontent of a large part of the Democratic Party and the Five Stars due to the lack of collegiality in the government, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has understood that he can no longer exorcise the dissent that is brewing in the majority and that it is inevitable to face the bull by the horns and reveal the cards. This is the political sense of the face-to-face meetings that Conte started this afternoon with the M5S and Pd and which tomorrow will have their climax with a direct confrontation with Matteo Renzi. The premier wants to understand if, after Renzi's lunge in the Senate and from the columns of El País, there is still room for mediation to try to mend the ranks of an increasingly frayed majority. His is a forced move, but the numbers are numbers and without the vote of Renzian parliamentarians in the Senate, the Government would no longer have a majority and Conte should leave Palazzo Chigi. To save his seat, the people's advocate must get ready to satisfy Renzi's three peremptory requests, which are not even displeased by the other government allies: via the control room, re-discussion of the distribution of the 209 billion of the Recovery Fund – above all of the misery reserved for health care (9 billion) and tourism (3 billion) – and goodbye to the Cybersecurity Foundation.
It is clear that Conte will try to resist and, if he manages to mend the rift with Renzi, he will be able to start. after a controlled crisis and the consequent parliamentary debate, towards the Conte-ter with the annexed government reshuffle. But time is running out, because Renzi has set the date of the 28th December: either the prime minister backs down or the leader of Italia Viva withdraws his ministers from the government.
But what if the rift between Conte and Renzi turned out to be unbridgeable? There are those who say that the legislature would slide towards the inclined plane of the early elections. But it is entirely unlikely, not only because voting in times of pandemic would be - yes - highly risky, but because, in the certainty of not being re-elected to the Chambers for the cut of parliamentarians wanted by the Five Stars, it is safe to bet that current deputies and senators would scramble to defend their seats in a legislature - let's not forget it - which at the beginning of 2022 must elect the new President of the Republic. The same sudden willingness shown by Lega leader Matteo Salvini to contribute to a transitional government and the willingness to converge with the current majority shown today by Silvio Berlusconi from the columns of the Corriere della Sera are a more than eloquent signal.
So? Then the next few days or weeks will serve to clarify the real alternative on the field, which is not Conte or the elections but Conte-ter or new premiership with the same political majority. The first days of the virtual political crisis underway have already brought one point to light and this is how, discarding the early elections and discarding the hypothesis of a new majority, the premiership has become contestable, because, beyond the facade declarations, neither Nicola Zingaretti nor Luigi Di Maio are ready to sacrifice themselves for Conte in the face of Renzi's pressing offensive.
Of course, if all the political forces were in agreement and if the person concerned were available, it would be more than wise to entrust the management of the Recovery Fund and the reconstruction of the country to a prime minister of the highest competence and of great international prestige, but, at present , a Mario Draghi premiership is little more than a mirage.
After all, once again the numbers are numbers and, beyond the many splits suffered, the Five Stars remain the first force in Parliament and if Giuseppe Conte's premiership evaporates, which was and is their expression, it's up to them put forward a new candidacy for Palazzo Chigi. Not by chance yesterday the Republic headlined like this: "If the premier falls, is Di Maio there?” and added that “his name is in pole position in the event of a change at Palazzo Chigi”.
The Democratic Party and Italia Viva could also converge on a Di Maio premiership, booking two strong vice-presidencies for their leaders and with an eye to the future battle for the Quirinal, but paradoxically it is Di Maio himself who hesitates. The risk of failing or being sniped by friendly fire and overwhelming the Five Stars is high, very high. But the Foreign Minister's ambition is known and he is the first to know that often in life the train passes only once. Now or never. Here because the Di Maio hypothesis is very problematic but it is not entirely farfetched. The next few days will tell us if his candidacy can gain altitude under the Christmas tree or if it is destined to vanish before being born.
